David Payne
David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Latest articles by David Payne
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Housing Market Gets Stronger in 2015
Economic Forecasts An improving economy and attractive home features will draw first-time and move-up buyers.
By David Payne • Last updated
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Winners, Losers from the Stronger U.S. Dollar
Economic Forecasts While manufacturers and consumers will gain, U.S. exporters and tourist attractions will get squeezed.
By David Payne • Last updated
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Small Business Revving Up in 2015
business Many firms with fewer than 50 workers have plans to expand, venture into new markets and add to payrolls.
By David Payne • Last updated
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U.S. Manufacturers on a Roll
Economic Forecasts Cheap energy and an improving economy will keep manufacturing growing at a better-than-average rate.
By David Payne • Last updated
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Faster Growth Looks to Stay for Awhile
Economic Forecasts From mid-2014, the U.S. economy should grow 3% or better through 2016. Only two slight risks might hold us back.
By David Payne • Last updated
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Housing Market Will Improve in 2015
Economic Forecasts The lagging sector is new single family homes, where a shortage of skilled labor and buildable lots is holding back construction.
By David Payne • Last updated
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The U.S. Economy Is the World’s Growth Engine Again
Economic Forecasts As more Americans find jobs, they're willing to spend. That's giving the economy enough oomph to overcome slowing among big U.S. trade partners.
By David Payne • Last updated
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When Will the Economy Feel Better?
Economic Forecasts We’re almost there. As the expansion continues to improve, more of its rewards will be seen and felt.
By David Payne • Last updated
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Wages to Rise — More for Some than Others
Economic Forecasts After years of little or no income growth, wage gains are finally beginning to gather a bit of steam.
By David Payne • Last updated
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Next Rise in Interest Rates Will Come in 2015
business Even when rates finally do head up, they won't zoom out of control. A progressive series of stair steps is more like it.
By David Payne • Last updated
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The Risks of Deflation
Economic Forecasts When prices start falling, economies stop growing.
By David Payne • Last updated
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U.S. Manufacturing Growing Steadily
Economic Forecasts Cheaper domestic energy, rising wages overseas and industries that use high-tech to make high-tech products are making producing goods on American soil attractive again.
By David Payne • Last updated
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The World’s Most Vulnerable Emerging Markets
Economic Forecasts Investors must understand the factors that make certain nations more susceptible to contagion in financial markets.
By David Payne • Last updated
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U.S. Economy Likely to Improve in 2014
Economic Forecasts Growth should average about 2.6% to 2.7% this year, and chances are good we'll see a strong finish.
By David Payne • Last updated
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Interest Rates and the Fed’s Taper
Economic Forecasts What happens in January could set the tone for long-term rates for the rest of the year.
By Glenn Somerville • Last updated
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Rising Household Wealth Signals Surge in Consumer Spending
business The rebound is unequal, though, with makers of pricey items set to benefit more than those churning out staples.
By David Payne • Last updated
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Interest Rates and the Real Unemployment Rate
Economic Forecasts There’s nothing magic about a particular unemployment rate. No one number is enough to indicate that the economy is healthy.
By David Payne • Last updated
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Why Do Jobs Go Begging?
Economic Forecasts A grievous mismatch of workers’ skills and job openings means millions go without paychecks while employers lack the help they need.
By David Payne • Last updated