
David Payne
David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Latest articles by David Payne
-
Kiplinger Interest Rates Outlook: Crosscurrents Keeping Rates in Narrow Band
Forecasts Interest rates will stay in a holding pattern, as concerns about future government deficits and inflation balance fears of an economic slowdown.
By David Payne Last updated
Forecasts -
Kiplinger Retail Outlook: Spending Pause is Likely Temporary
Economic Forecasts Retail sales pulled back in January, after a strong December, but may not be out of gas yet.
By David Payne Last updated
Economic Forecasts -
Kiplinger Inflation Outlook: Low Number Doesn’t Reflect Tariffs Yet
Economic Forecasts Inflation should rise in the coming months as tariff effects materialize, but less than first expected, now that there is a U.S.-China trade truce.
By David Payne Last updated
Economic Forecasts -
Kiplinger GDP Outlook: The Economy’s Slowdown Is Here
Kiplinger Forecasts A surge in imports ahead of new tariffs caused GDP to contract in the first quarter, and the trade war will mean slow growth this year.
By David Payne Last updated
Kiplinger Forecasts -
The Economic Impact of the US-China Trade War
The Letter The US-China trade war will impact US consumers and business. The decoupling process could be messy.
By David Payne Published
The Letter -
Kiplinger Business Spending Outlook: Still Cautious for Now
Economic Forecasts Businesses will invest more after the election is in the rearview mirror.
By David Payne Last updated
Economic Forecasts -
A Move Away From Free Trade
The Letter President Trump says long-term gain will be worth short-term pain, but the pain could be significant this year.
By David Payne Published
The Letter -
What To Know if You’re in the Market for a New Car This Year
The Kiplinger Letter Buying a new car will get a little easier, but don’t expect many deals.
By David Payne Published
The Kiplinger Letter -
What Could Derail the Economy This Year?
The Letter While the outlook for the U.S. economy is mostly favorable, there are plenty of risks that bear watching.
By David Payne Published
The Letter -
Three Ways President Trump Could Impact the Economy
The Letter Some of Trump's top priorities could boost economic growth, but others risk fueling inflation.
By David Payne Published
The Letter -
Should We Worry About the Slowing U.S. Economy
The Letter With the labor market cooling off and financial markets turning jittery, just how healthy is the economy right now?
By David Payne Published
The Letter -
Aging in Place Is Big Business for Builders
The Kiplinger Letter Many people will be looking to make their homes aging-friendly in the years to come.
By David Payne Published
The Kiplinger Letter -
New Graduates Navigate a Challenging Labor Market
The Kiplinger Letter Things are getting tough for new graduates. Job offers are drying up and the jobless rate is increasing. Are internships the answer?
By David Payne Last updated
The Kiplinger Letter -
Car Prices Are Finally Coming Down
The Kiplinger Letter For the first time in years, it may be possible to snag a good deal on a new car.
By David Payne Published
The Kiplinger Letter -
Kiplinger Special: The Long-Term Future of the U.S. Economy
The Kiplinger Letter Kiplinger's report into what it will take the U.S. to maintain a healthy economic growth rate.
By David Payne Published
The Kiplinger Letter -
Future U.S. Economic Growth Hinges on Immigrants
The Kiplinger Letter With the native birthrate slipping, employers are increasingly relying on foreign-born workers to staff up.
By David Payne Published
The Kiplinger Letter -
Fed Rate Cuts Still on Hold
The Kiplinger Letter With inflation stubbornly elevated, the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for now.
By David Payne Published
The Kiplinger Letter -
A Spotlight on the Pacific States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Most Pacific states are seeing good job growth in multiple sectors including tourism, hospitality, and construction.
By David Payne Published
The Kiplinger Letter -
A Spotlight on the Mountain States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Most Mountain states are seeing good job growth in multiple sectors from healthcare, energy, and semiconductor production to farming and government.
By David Payne Last updated
The Kiplinger Letter -
A Spotlight on the Plains States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter The labor market is tight in the Plains states and outside of healthcare and construction most sectors are flat or down.
By David Payne Published
The Kiplinger Letter -
A Spotlight on the South Central States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Outside of the tech sector slump, job growth in the South Central states remains buoyant, with healthcare, construction and business investment going strong.
By David Payne Published
The Kiplinger Letter -
A Spotlight on the Midwest: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Despite slow or no job growth, the overall outlook for the Midwest region remains mostly positive due to in-migration and key business sectors.
By David Payne Last updated
The Kiplinger Letter -
A Spotlight on the Mid-South States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Despite slow or no job growth, the overall outlook for the mid-south region remains mostly positive due to in-migration and key business sectors.
By David Payne Published
The Kiplinger Letter -
Four trends for the auto industry in 2024
The Kiplinger Letter Here's what to expect in the auto industry this year. If you’re in the market for a car it won’t be quite as daunting as it was during the pandemic and after.
By David Payne Published
The Kiplinger Letter