David Payne
David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Latest articles by David Payne
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Kiplinger GDP Outlook: Economy Shows Resilience, But Still Slowing
Economic Forecasts There’s still a 50% chance of recession in the next 12 months.
By David Payne • Last updated
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Mixed Bag on Business Costs as Manufacturing Costs Fall, Oil is Headed Up: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Mixed bag on business costs as manufacturing and gas prices fall, but oil is up: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
By David Payne • Published
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Kiplinger's Retail Outlook: Consumers Are Still in the Game
Economic Forecasts Retail spending will slow with the economy but will retain more pep than expected.
By David Payne • Last updated
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Spending Cuts Could Trigger Deeper Slowdown: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Spending Cuts Could Trigger Deeper Slowdown: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
By David Payne • Last updated
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Kiplinger's Inflation Outlook: Rising Prices To Ease Soon
Economic Forecasts Kiplinger's inflation outlook: inflation will drop in the next few months, but price pressures remain in the services sector.
By David Payne • Last updated
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Shortage of electrical engineers to power labor market growth: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts A lack of skilled graduates and funding are contributing to the shortage.
By David Payne • Published
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Kiplinger Jobs Outlook: Hints of a Slowdown in Progress
Economic Forecasts A stronger-than-expected April jobs report still shows the labor market is cooling.
By David Payne • Last updated
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Kiplinger’s Interest Rates Outlook: The Fed May Be Done Hiking Short Rates
Economic Forecasts Kiplinger’s Interest Rates Outlook: The Fed May Be Done Hiking Short Rates
By David Payne • Last updated
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What's Likely to Happen to Inflation Bond Rates
I-bonds are likely to become a good — not great — savings option as inflation bond rates are expected to lower.
By David Payne • Published
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Kiplinger’s Economic Outlooks
Economic Forecasts Kiplinger’s Economic Outlooks: insights on the economy’s next moves.
By David Payne • Last updated
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Kiplinger's Economic Outlooks
Economic Forecasts Regularly updated insights on the economy’s next moves.
By David Payne • Last updated
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As Used-Car Prices Fall, Financing Costs Rise
Prices of used cars are off their painful peak and should continue to ease, but rising interest rates are killing any gains in affordability for those who can’t bring cash to the table.
By David Payne • Last updated
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Holiday Bargains Ahead for Shoppers as Retailers Shed Overstock
Many (though not all) vendors will be turning to discounts and clearances even as inflation eats at their sales.
By David Payne • Last updated
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Social Security COLA Set to Rise
retirement Consumer prices have spiked this year, meaning a higher Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2023.
By David Payne • Last updated
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Is Relief from Shipping Woes Finally in Sight?
business After years of supply chain snags, freight shipping is finally returning to something more like normal.
By David Payne • Published
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USPS to Raise Rates for "Holiday" Season Again
personal finance If you want to avoid surge pricing for the postal service, you’ll need to send your holiday packages in September.
By David Muhlbaum • Published
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What Will Happen With Health Costs in 2023
Business Costs & Regulation Higher drug costs are likely to accelerate health insurance premium increases.
By David Payne • Published
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Retirees to Get Big Social Security COLA Boost for 2022
social security The increase in the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2022 was driven by higher prices for fuel, appliances and cars.
By David Payne • Published
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Retirees Likely to Receive Significant Bump in Social Security Benefits in 2022
social security The cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security benefits for next year is expected to be the largest since 1982.
By David Payne • Published
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Federal Debt: A Heavy Load
Economic Forecasts The debt continues to grow, but record-low interest rates could ease the long-term damage.
By David Payne • Published
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How the Fed's Moves Affect You
Economic Forecasts It’s pumping trillions of dollars into the economy and keeping rates near zero. Savers are sunk, but borrowers get a boost.
By David Payne • Published
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10 States Most Unprepared for This Deep Recession
Economic Forecasts Most state budgets are in better shape now than they were before the last recession, thanks to steady growth in employment and the resulting rise in tax revenue.
By David Payne • Last updated
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Coronavirus Drugs Already in the Pipeline
investing It's not just chloroquine. Other existing medicines are being brought to bear against COVID-19. We look at what drugs have promise against COVID-19, and when they will get here.
By David Payne • Last updated
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How Hard Will Coronavirus Hit U.S., Global Economies?
Economic Forecasts COVID-19 poses serious risk of economic damage, possibly even a recession, even as its health impacts will be limited.
By David Payne • Last updated