David Payne
David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Latest articles by David Payne
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Kiplinger Retail Outlook: Consumers Spend Freely, for NowEconomic Forecasts Low savings rates and higher gasoline costs imply a slowdown in spending at some point.
By David Payne
Economic Forecasts -
Kiplinger GDP Outlook: No Recession, But Low Economic GrowthKiplinger Forecasts In the latest Kiplinger GDP forecast, we expect modest-to-moderate growth in the second half of 2025 and through 2026.
By David Payne
Kiplinger Forecasts -
Kiplinger Inflation Outlook: Energy Cost Increases Not Done YetEconomic Forecasts The inflation report for May will show a jump in prices for the third month. Headline inflation should rise above 4.0%.
By David Payne
Economic Forecasts -
Kiplinger Jobs Outlook: Is The Jan. Jump in Jobs a One-Off?Economic Forecasts Kiplinger's monthly jobs round-up covers the latest changes in the labor market, from job gains to wage fluctuations.
By David Payne
Economic Forecasts -
War in the Middle East Spells Higher Inflation for ConsumersThe Letter The economy can probably withstand the jump in fuel costs, but prices figure to rise faster, straining many budgets.
By Matthew Housiaux
The Letter -
Kiplinger Business Costs Outlook: Spending, Costs RiseEconomic Forecasts Trade deals reduce tariff uncertainty, but lock in higher costs of imports.
By David Payne
Economic Forecasts -
War in Iran Threatens Higher Fuel Prices, Renewed InflationThe Letter With much of the Middle East's critical oil and gas exports cut off from global markets, rising energy costs could give inflation new momentum.
By David Payne
The Letter -
Big Change Coming to the Federal ReserveThe Lette A new chairman of the Federal Reserve has been named. What will this mean for the economy?
By David Payne
The Lette -
The U.S. Economy Will Gain Steam This YearThe Kiplinger Letter The Letter editors review the projected pace of the economy for 2026. Bigger tax refunds and resilient consumers will keep the economy humming in 2026.
By David Payne
The Kiplinger Letter -
Shoppers Hit the Brakes on EVs After Tax Credits ExpireThe Letter Electric cars are here to stay, but they'll have to compete harder to get shoppers interested without the federal tax credit.
By David Payne
The Letter -
The Economy on a Knife's EdgeThe Letter GDP is growing, but employers have all but stopped hiring as they watch how the trade war plays out.
By David Payne
The Letter -
What is AI Worth to the Economy?The Letter Spending on AI is already boosting GDP, but will the massive outlays being poured into the technology deliver faster economic growth in the long run?
By David Payne
The Letter -
Can the U.S. Break China's Stranglehold on Critical Minerals?The Letter China is using its near-monopoly on critical minerals to win trade concessions. Can the U.S. find alternate supplies?
By David Payne
The Letter -
Things that Surprise Business Owners When It’s Time to SellThe Kiplinger Letter When it’s time to retire and enjoy the fruits of growing their business, owners are often surprised by how tough it is to give up their baby!
By David Payne
The Kiplinger Letter -
The Economic Impact of the US-China Trade War
The Letter The US-China trade war will impact US consumers and business. The decoupling process could be messy.
By David Payne
The Letter -
A Move Away From Free TradeThe Letter President Trump says long-term gain will be worth short-term pain, but the pain could be significant this year.
By David Payne
The Letter -
What To Know if You’re in the Market for a New Car This YearThe Kiplinger Letter Buying a new car will get a little easier, but don’t expect many deals.
By David Payne
The Kiplinger Letter -
What Could Derail the Economy This Year?The Letter While the outlook for the U.S. economy is mostly favorable, there are plenty of risks that bear watching.
By David Payne
The Letter -
Three Ways President Trump Could Impact the EconomyThe Letter Some of Trump's top priorities could boost economic growth, but others risk fueling inflation.
By David Payne
The Letter -
Should We Worry About the Slowing U.S. EconomyThe Letter With the labor market cooling off and financial markets turning jittery, just how healthy is the economy right now?
By David Payne
The Letter -
Aging in Place Is Big Business for BuildersThe Kiplinger Letter Many people will be looking to make their homes aging-friendly in the years to come.
By David Payne
The Kiplinger Letter -
New Graduates Navigate a Challenging Labor MarketThe Kiplinger Letter Things are getting tough for new graduates. Job offers are drying up and the jobless rate is increasing. Are internships the answer?
By David Payne
The Kiplinger Letter -
Car Prices Are Finally Coming DownThe Kiplinger Letter For the first time in years, it may be possible to snag a good deal on a new car.
By David Payne
The Kiplinger Letter -
Kiplinger Special: The Long-Term Future of the U.S. Economy
The Kiplinger Letter Kiplinger's report into what it will take the U.S. to maintain a healthy economic growth rate.
By David Payne
The Kiplinger Letter
