David Payne
David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Latest articles by David Payne
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Kiplinger's GDP Outlook: Economic Growth Is Slowing to Normal
Economic Forecasts The economy’s quarterly growth rate will likely average 2.0% from now on.
By David Payne Last updated
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Kiplinger's Retail Outlook: February Sales Softer Than Expected
Economic Forecasts Retail sales rebounded only halfway from January’s snowstorm slowdown.
By David Payne Last updated
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A Spotlight on the Pacific States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Most Pacific states are seeing good job growth in multiple sectors including tourism, hospitality, and construction.
By David Payne Published
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Kiplinger Jobs Outlook: Strong Labor Market Will Return to Normal
Economic Forecasts Job gains are bound to slow, but the labor market will not be tanking.
By David Payne Last updated
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A Spotlight on the Mountain States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Most Mountain states are seeing good job growth in multiple sectors from healthcare, energy, and semiconductor production to farming and government.
By David Payne Last updated
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A Spotlight on the Plains States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter The labor market is tight in the Plains states and outside of healthcare and construction most sectors are flat or down.
By David Payne Published
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A Spotlight on the South Central States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Outside of the tech sector slump, job growth in the South Central states remains buoyant, with healthcare, construction and business investment going strong.
By David Payne Published
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Interest Rates Outlook: Short-Term Rates Drop But Not Until June
Economic Forecasts Waiting until the June 12 Federal Reserve policy meeting would let Fed Chair Powell see four more months of inflation data.
By David Payne Last updated
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Kiplinger Inflation Outlook: Temporary Factors Boost Inflation Rate
Economic Forecasts The Federal Reserve may delay a rate cut until June, just to make sure the downward inflation trend is continuing.
By David Payne Last updated
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A Spotlight on the Midwest: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Despite slow or no job growth, the overall outlook for the Midwest region remains mostly positive due to in-migration and key business sectors.
By David Payne Last updated
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A Spotlight on the Mid-South States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Despite slow or no job growth, the overall outlook for the mid-south region remains mostly positive due to in-migration and key business sectors.
By David Payne Published
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Four trends for the auto industry in 2024
The Kiplinger Letter Here's what to expect in the auto industry this year. If you’re in the market for a car it won’t be quite as daunting as it was during the pandemic and after.
By David Payne Published
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A Spotlight on the Southeastern States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter The Southeastern states will see steady job growth in the healthcare and hospitality sectors with some pressures from inward migration.
By David Payne Published
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A Spotlight on the Mid-Atlantic States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Solid rebound in tech, hospitality, healthcare and other fields fuel hiring, but a slowing economy will equate to only modest growth.
By David Payne Published
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State Economics — Spotlight on New England: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter After a better-than-expected 2023, New England states will see only modest employment growth in 2024.
By David Payne Published
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Consumers Feel Glum About the Economy: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Surveys show that consumers feel glum and wary about what comes next, despite their uptick in spending.
By David Payne Published
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Small Businesses Hit Extra Hard by Higher Interest Rates
The Kiplinger Letter On average, small business owners are paying interest rates in the range of 9.1%, per the NFIB.
By David Payne Published
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Consumers Have $1 Trillion More Savings Post-Pandemic: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter GDP data show Americans have more savings than they did pre-pandemic.
By David Payne Published
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Autonomous Trucks Are Coming to a Road Near You: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter What does the rollout of autonomous trucks and cars mean for the commercial sector?
By David Payne Published
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The Era of Super-Low Interest Rates Could Be Over: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter We’re likely never going back to the historically low rates that prevailed in late 2019 and early 2020.
By David Payne Published
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Cargo Thefts on the Rise: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Organized crime rings are targeting goods in shipments.
By David Payne Published
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Is the Economy Inching Toward a Recession?: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter The odds of the U.S. tipping into a recession could depend on how a few key issues are resolved in the coming months.
By David Payne Published
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COVID Hospitalization Rates See an Uptick As Winter Looms — The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter A new Omicron booster is available, but the elderly are still at risk and winter is right around the corner.
By David Payne Published
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Will the U.S. Dodge a Recession?: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Kiplinger Economic Forecasts The labor market is healthy enough to dodge a recession, even though job growth is lethargic.
By David Payne Published
Kiplinger Economic Forecasts