David Payne
David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Latest articles by David Payne
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Kiplinger Jobs Outlook: Labor Market Strength Surprises
Economic Forecasts Strong job growth in September and revisions to July and August indicate the labor market’s weakness was overstated.
By David Payne Last updated
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Kiplinger GDP Outlook: Q3’s Solid Growth Pace Not Likely to Last
Kiplinger Forecasts GDP growth was strong in the third quarter, but the economy is poised for a slower pace through 2025.
By David Payne Last updated
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Kiplinger Retail Outlook: Spending Level Remains High
Economic Forecasts Consumer spending still has momentum going into the holiday season.
By David Payne Last updated
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Kiplinger Interest Rates Outlook: Fed Cuts Rates Again
Forecasts Fed Chair Powell is still intent on cutting short-term interest rates, and will not worry about future fiscal policy changes until they happen.
By David Payne Last updated
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Kiplinger Business Spending Outlook: Still Cautious for Now
Economic Forecasts Businesses will invest more after the election is in the rearview mirror.
By David Payne Last updated
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Should We Worry About the Slowing U.S. Economy
The Letter With the labor market cooling off and financial markets turning jittery, just how healthy is the economy right now?
By David Payne Published
The Letter -
Aging in Place Is Big Business for Builders
The Kiplinger Letter Many people will be looking to make their homes aging-friendly in the years to come.
By David Payne Published
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New Graduates Navigate a Challenging Labor Market
The Kiplinger Letter Things are getting tough for new graduates. Job offers are drying up and the jobless rate is increasing. Are internships the answer?
By David Payne Last updated
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Car Prices Are Finally Coming Down
The Kiplinger Letter For the first time in years, it may be possible to snag a good deal on a new car.
By David Payne Published
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Kiplinger Special: The Long-Term Future of the U.S. Economy
The Kiplinger Letter Kiplinger's report into what it will take the U.S. to maintain a healthy economic growth rate.
By David Payne Published
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Future U.S. Economic Growth Hinges on Immigrants
The Kiplinger Letter With the native birthrate slipping, employers are increasingly relying on foreign-born workers to staff up.
By David Payne Published
The Kiplinger Letter -
Fed Rate Cuts Still on Hold
The Kiplinger Letter With inflation stubbornly elevated, the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for now.
By David Payne Published
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A Spotlight on the Pacific States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Most Pacific states are seeing good job growth in multiple sectors including tourism, hospitality, and construction.
By David Payne Published
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A Spotlight on the Mountain States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Most Mountain states are seeing good job growth in multiple sectors from healthcare, energy, and semiconductor production to farming and government.
By David Payne Last updated
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A Spotlight on the Plains States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter The labor market is tight in the Plains states and outside of healthcare and construction most sectors are flat or down.
By David Payne Published
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A Spotlight on the South Central States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Outside of the tech sector slump, job growth in the South Central states remains buoyant, with healthcare, construction and business investment going strong.
By David Payne Published
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A Spotlight on the Midwest: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Despite slow or no job growth, the overall outlook for the Midwest region remains mostly positive due to in-migration and key business sectors.
By David Payne Last updated
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A Spotlight on the Mid-South States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Despite slow or no job growth, the overall outlook for the mid-south region remains mostly positive due to in-migration and key business sectors.
By David Payne Published
The Kiplinger Letter -
Four trends for the auto industry in 2024
The Kiplinger Letter Here's what to expect in the auto industry this year. If you’re in the market for a car it won’t be quite as daunting as it was during the pandemic and after.
By David Payne Published
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A Spotlight on the Southeastern States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter The Southeastern states will see steady job growth in the healthcare and hospitality sectors with some pressures from inward migration.
By David Payne Published
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A Spotlight on the Mid-Atlantic States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Solid rebound in tech, hospitality, healthcare and other fields fuel hiring, but a slowing economy will equate to only modest growth.
By David Payne Published
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State Economics — Spotlight on New England: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter After a better-than-expected 2023, New England states will see only modest employment growth in 2024.
By David Payne Published
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Consumers Feel Glum About the Economy: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Surveys show that consumers feel glum and wary about what comes next, despite their uptick in spending.
By David Payne Published
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Small Businesses Hit Extra Hard by Higher Interest Rates
The Kiplinger Letter On average, small business owners are paying interest rates in the range of 9.1%, per the NFIB.
By David Payne Published
The Kiplinger Letter