Interest Rates: Long Rates Likely to Rise Later
Kiplinger’s latest forecast on interest rates
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The current surge in COVID-19 infections caused by the Delta variant is keeping interest rates lower than they would be otherwise, because of concerns about the effect on the economy. But the infection surge is likely to start diminishing this month, so rates should begin to drift upwards again as the economy rebounds.
As the economy rebounds, inflation should pick up again. But so far, investors in long-term bonds do not appear to be concerned that high inflation will last. As the economy strengthened before the surge, shortages developed, pushing up prices of cars, appliances, car rentals, housing, etc. While shortages will likely ease over time, wage growth is likely to stay streong well into next year, which could force businesses to raise prices. Also, government spending on infrastructure and other priorities next year should keep the economy running hot. U.S. government debt will rise to 108% of GDP this year, and 114% next year. This is uncharted territory: The highest the national debt has ever been was 106% of GDP right after World War II. Expect the 10-year yield to rise to at least 1.8% by early next year.
The rise in the 10-year rate will also push up mortgage rates, from 2.9% currently to 3.3% by early next year. Rates on long-term car loans should also bump up.
Chair Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve has said that the Fed would consider any spike in inflation this year to be temporary. That means that the Fed will not raise short-term rates, even if inflation stays high. It remains focused on its goal of seeing a lower unemployment rate and a recovery in the labor market.
Short-term consumer loan rates such as home equity lines of credit will stay where they are. These tend to be tied to the federal funds interest rate, which is controlled by the Federal Reserve. The fed funds rate will be held steady near 0% for an extended period of time.
While the Federal Reserve is committed to keeping short-term interest rates at rock bottom for a while, expect the Fed to announce that it is cutting its purchases of Treasuries and other securities at its November 3rd meeting. The Fed is purchasing $80 billion of Treasury securities and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities every month, adding to its balance sheet. When the Fed thinks the economy does not need this support, it will begin reducing its purchases by $10 billion of Treasuries and $5 billion of MBS every six weeks at its FOMC meetings. This will take place before the Fed raises short-term rates, since tapering its bond purchases is considered an intermediate measure.
Corporate high-yield bond rates are staying low, as the strong economy is outweighing any inflation or COVID-19 concerns. CCC-rated bond yields are down to 7.3%, just slightly above their recent low. AAA bonds are yielding 1.8% and BBB bonds, 2.2%.
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