Are New Trump $2,000 Payments Coming in 2026? What to Know Now

Hundred-dollar bills look like they're growing with grass. — (Image credit: Getty Images)

As New Year's resolutions faded and prices for everyday essentials remain high, discussions about new government stimulus payments once again captured public attention.

Online searches for “stimulus checks” climbed, and speculation about government payments intensified after President Donald Trump revived one of his attention-grabbing ideas: sending some U.S. taxpayers $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks.

Trump claims his tariffs on imported goods generated enough money to fund the plan and to pay down some of the deficit. However, since tariffs are taxes, U.S. consumers are bearing much of the burden of the administration's trade policy, and some fiscal experts say the "dividend" numbers don’t add up.

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But when asked about a potential timeline for such payments, Trump recently told the New York Times, "I would say toward the end of the year."

So, the question is: Will you receive a $2,000 payment soon? Here’s what you need to know.

Are Trump 'tariff dividend checks' really on the way?

Trump revived his proposal to provide a $2,000 payment to some U.S. taxpayers. He’s framed it as a fair share of the revenues generated by sweeping tariffs he implemented on imported goods since the start of his second term as president.

In a post on his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump wrote the following:

“People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 Trillion. Record Investment in the USA, plants and factories going up all over the place. A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”

Trump suggested the new plan for stimulus payments would be a patriotic payback to working families, who are shouldering higher costs. However, you might recall that this message echoes previous flirtations.

For instance, the Trump administration once talked about “DOGE dividends” — payments tied to Elon Musk’s infamous Department of Government Efficiency cuts. Those “savings” never materialized into payments to taxpayers.

And Trump’s call for tariff dividends raises other questions. Who will be considered “high earners”? When and how would the money be sent?

In response, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seemed to temper expectations.

On ABC’s This Week, Bessent said the administration is exploring whether the “dividend” would come in the form of direct payments, temporary tax relief, or another form, like tax cuts in the recently enacted 2025 Trump tax bill.

“The $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms, in lots of ways. It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president's agenda — no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, deductibility on auto loans.”

*Note: The 2025 Trump/GOP tax bill does not end taxes on Social Security benefits. For more information, see Social Security Tax Cuts Missing From Trump Tax Bill.

On Fox News, Bessent noted that Congress would have to approve any such payout and that no final design had been established.
The Treasury Secretary also floated an income limit — possibly excluding households earning over $100,000 — but stressed those details remain under discussion.
Bessent later acknowledged a trade-off between using tariff revenue for checks versus paying down the federal debt.

Tariff stimulus: Is there enough tariff revenue to go around?

The fiscal realities and trade-offs are key, as several budgetary experts have raised concerns about the feasibility of Trump’s proposal.

John Ricco, an analyst with the Budget Lab at Yale University, told reporters, “It’s clear that the revenue coming in would not be adequate.”

That’s based on the assumption that Trump’s tariffs might have brought in $200 billion to $300 billion annually. (That amount reportedly constitutes less than 4% of total federal revenue.)

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimates that issuing a one-time $2,000 payment to every American, including children, would cost approximately $600 billion — roughly triple the proposed annual tariff revenue.

And even if the checks were limited to those making $100,000 or less, Alex Durante, a senior economist at the Tax Foundation, points out that this would mean checks going to an estimated 150 million Americans at a minimum cost of $300 billion.

Takeaway? Tariff revenue has grown, but not nearly enough to fund dividend checks of this scale without dramatically increasing the federal deficit.

Despite tariff growth, the federal deficit in fiscal 2025 still reached nearly $1.8 trillion, according to data from the Treasury and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
The International Monetary Fund warns that while tariffs can temporarily curb deficits, they often distort trade and raise consumer prices.
The Tax Foundation notes that as tariffs rise, imports tend to fall. That can potentially undercut the revenue source Trump claims to want to redistribute.

Trump tariffs Supreme Court ruling

Then there’s also the now-answered question of the legal sustainability of Trump’s tariff policies.

As Kiplinger has reported, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down many of Trump's tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which underpins many of the Trump administration’s tariffs.

Since the Court invalidated many of the tariffs, the ruling will significantly affect the availability of funds for any so-called "tariff dividends" and possibly necessitate tariff refunds. (During oral arguments in the tariff case, Justice Amy Coney Barrett pondered the potential administrative “mess” involved in ordering massive tariff refunds for affected importers.) In a dissenting opinion, Justice Kavanaugh echoed that notion.

Then, here’s the legislative hurdle surrounding any tariff dividends. As Besent acknowledged, Congress would have to pass legislation to authorize the payments.

Earlier this year, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) introduced a bill that would mandate annual “tariff rebates” for lower- and middle-income families, funded by duties on Chinese imports.

Hawley’s version, which hasn’t moved in Congress, would stop short of setting a flat $2,000 figure. If approved, the bill would reportedly provide at least $600 per adult and dependent child, meaning a family of four could receive a minimum of $2,400 in rebates.

The $600 would be a guaranteed minimum per eligible person.
But if tariff revenues exceed projections, payments could increase proportionally.

Meanwhile, even some Trump allies acknowledge the need for congressional approval for any such payments, meaning that any rollout of Trump dividends will face political and procedural headwinds.

Investor and Shark Tank personality, Kevin O'Leary, recently warned that sending out checks funded by tariffs is just a “quick band‑aid” that risks acting as a “silent tax” by stoking inflation.

On X (formerly Twitter). O’Leary posted: “Everyone loves the idea of a free check, especially in a tough economy. But here’s the truth, and it’s not always popular. Sending out $2,000 checks funded by tariffs might feel good in the moment, but it does nothing to fix the core problem.”

He later told reporters that any new tariff revenue should be used to pay down the national debt and shore up long‑term economic stability.

Trump giving $2,000 checks: Bottom line

The idea of a Trump $2,000 “tariff dividend” might understandably resonate with many households. But fiscal realities remain shaky, the legal situation is uncertain, and congressional cooperation is far from guaranteed.

Budget Pressure: The plan could significantly deepen the deficit unless the payouts are sharply limited.

Revenue Volatility: Tariff revenue tends to fluctuate, particularly when imports decline or trade partners retaliate.

Debt Trade-Off: Using tariff proceeds for checks would divert funds from federal debt reduction.

Legislative Hurdles: Congressional approval will be required for direct federal payments. And worth noting: if any such payments were approved, most taxpayers would likely have to receive them electronically. (The federal government has said it is moving away from paper checks for benefits, refunds, and other disbursements.)

Legal Risks: Court challenges have narrowed Trump’s tariff authority and likely eroded the revenue base.

So, for now, the “tariff dividend” looks more like another idea than a budget-ready program that taxpayers can look forward to. Focus on practical financial steps, including taking advantage of existing tax breaks and legitimate employment and income opportunities.

But, as always, stay tuned. Some states are sending various forms of rebates and relief payments this year.

This story has been updated to include information about the Supreme Court's tariff ruling.

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Kelley R. Taylor is the senior tax editor at Kiplinger.com, where she breaks down federal and state tax rules and news to help readers navigate their finances with confidence. A corporate attorney and business journalist with more than 20 years of experience, Kelley has helped taxpayers make sense of shifting U.S. tax law and policy from the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), to SECURE 2.0, the Inflation Reduction Act, and most recently, the 2025 “Big, Beautiful Bill.” She has covered issues ranging from partnerships, carried interest, compensation and benefits, and tax‑exempt organizations to RMDs, capital gains taxes, and energy tax credits. Her award‑winning work has been featured in numerous national and specialty publications.