What to Look Out for in Economic Data This Week (November 17-21)

The week's economic reports will still be impacted by what was the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

We will see the minutes from the October Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, and we will hear from a full set of Fed speakers throughout the week. Then there is the release of the final University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers results on Friday.

And hard data, including hiring numbers, is incoming again, though labor economist Guy Berger suggests we separate the "data collection" process from the "data publication" process.

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"In some cases, collection was significantly disrupted, and there will be a permanent hole in the historical time series," Berger explains. "In other cases, collection was either ongoing or can be 'made up' after the fact; it’s a matter of compiling, processing and publishing that data."

Berger notes that we will have a complete historical record. But there will be delays in publication.

"We might get the September data relatively quickly, but that’s old news at this point and of relatively minor interest," Berger writes. "Due to the disruption of October data collection, the first batch of timely labor market news will be the November BLS jobs report due in December."

Economic data we're watching

Wednesday, November 19: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes: The Fed cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September and again in October. What did FOMC members say about stable prices and maximum employment in October – and what can that tell us about the next Fed meeting in December?

Friday, November 21: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (revised): The preliminary read showed concern about the government shutdown pushed the index down 6% month over month and 30% year over year to 50.3, its second-lowest print since 1978. Sentiment hasn't been this low since June 2022, when inflation was at its highest level in 40 years.

Read on to see the entire weekly economic calendar of the most important upcoming economic reports scheduled to be released in the next several days. At times, we provide expanded previews and recaps for select reports.

Please check back often. This economic calendar is updated regularly. Bolded reports are those considered more noteworthy. All reporting times are in Eastern Time.

Reports that have been or could be delayed due to the government shutdown are marked with an asterisk (*).

Monday (11/17)

Tuesday (11/18)

Wednesday (11/19)

Will the Fed cut interest rates again?

Following consecutive cuts of 25 basis points to the target range for its main benchmark, investors, traders and speculators are questioning the Federal Reserve's commitment to lower policy interest rates.

Indeed, a mid-November stock market sell-off is a function of comments by Fed members indicating that a December cut "is very much on the fence," according to Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates.

Navellier says this is counterintuitive in the context of a weakening employment situation. "The market wants a series of cuts by the Fed," he explains, "which would support high tech valuations and stimulate the housing market and the economy in general."

Recent statements suggest the central bank "seems overly concerned with the inflation side of the equation, a topic that has been hidden by the government shutdown."

We'll see what members of the Federal Open Market Committee had to say about price stability, maximum employment and interest rates during their October meeting on Wednesday.

Thursday (11/20)

Friday (11/21)

Shutdown weighs on consumers

Preliminary results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumer Sentiment showed a historic decline but established a big distinction between consumers who are also investors and those who are not investors.

“This month’s decline in sentiment was widespread throughout the population," said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu in a statement, "seen across age, income, and political affiliation.”

Hsu identified one key exception: Consumers in the top third in terms of stock ownership "posted a notable 11% increase in sentiment, supported by continued strength in stock markets."

The survey also shows that 71% of consumers see more unemployment over the next year, up from 32% in November 2024 and the second-highest share since 1978. As Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Brent Schutte observes, "The latest hard data seems to support their pessimism.

"While previous data showed both low hiring and low firing," Schutte concludes, "new data suggests that we could be shifting to an environment of even lower hiring and a growing number of firings."

We'll see whether the recent stock market sell-off has added even more drag on sentiment on Friday.

Reporting schedules are provided Forex Factory and MarketWatch.

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