What to Look Out for in Economic Data This Week (March 9-13)

There are several key economic reports Wall Street will be tuned into over the next week. In addition to a pair of inflation updates – most notably, Wednesday morning's release of the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report – we'll also get the first look at the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for March, which could shed light on how consumers are feeling about the U.S.-Iran war.

Economic reports we're watching

Wednesday, March 11: CPI and core CPI: The data will likely show that the trend of lower inflation is stalling, say Wells Fargo economists.

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Friday, March 13: University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index: Inflation remains a major worry for consumers.

Read on to see the entire weekly economic calendar of the most important upcoming economic reports scheduled to be released in the next several days. At times, we provide expanded previews and recaps for select reports.

Please check back often. This economic calendar is updated regularly. Bolded reports are those considered more noteworthy. All reporting times are in Eastern Time.

Reports that have been delayed due to the government shutdown are marked with an asterisk (*).

Monday (3/9)

There are no noteworthy economic reports scheduled to be released on Monday, March 9.

Tuesday (3/10)

Wednesday (3/11)

The next CPI report is a big one to watch

The market's been fed mixed inflation readings in recent weeks, which makes Wednesday morning's release of the February CPI all the more important.

On one hand, both headline and core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, slowed in January. On the other hand, the shutdown-delayed release of December's Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) came in hotter than expected.

We'll get the January PCE data on Friday, but what are economists expecting the February CPI to show?

"The February CPI is likely to show that progress on lowering inflation is stalling out again," says Wells Fargo economists Sarah House, Michael Pugliese and Nicole Cervi. "Although the conflict in the Middle East started over the weekend, oil and gasoline prices were already rising last month in anticipation of an escalation."

This, they believe, will help lift headline CPI up 0.21% month over month and 2.4% year over year.

But "softer price growth in travel-related services and medical care likely will weigh on core services inflation," with the economists expecting core CPI to be up 0.19% and 2.4% on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively.

Thursday (3/12)

Friday (3/13)

Are spiking gas prices weighing on sentiment?

Higher prices continue to be a top concern for most consumers, according to the University of Michigan, with both year-ahead and long-run inflation expectations arriving well above their 2024 levels in February.

Overall, UofM's Consumer Sentiment Index showed little change from January's results, though noticeable divergences differed across populations.

"A sizable month-to-month increase in sentiment for the largest stockholders was fully offset by a decline among consumers without stock holdings," explains Joanne Hsu, director of the monthly Surveys of Consumers. And higher-income and wealthier consumers feel better insulated from economic risks than lower-income ones.

March throws another wrench into potential risks facing consumers, with energy prices spiking amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East. This is likely to weigh on consumer sentiment – particularly with gas prices up roughly 12% in the past week.

Friday morning's release of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for March could show signs of strained sentiment in the early days of the U.S.-Iran conflict, but Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam believes any impacts won't be fully captured until the final report is released later this month.

Reporting schedules are provided Forex Factory and MarketWatch.

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