The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are the focus of this week's economic calendar, with all eyes on Wednesday afternoon's release of the FOMC's updated monetary policy statement and Powell's press conference.
Retail sales on Tuesday will provide a meaningful appetizer for that main course.
Tuesday, September 16: Retail sales: Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP. That's why markets pay attention to this monthly data series.
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Wednesday, September 17: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy statement and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's press conference: How big was the Fed's rate cut, and how concerned about inflation, employment and growth is the central bank? The base-case is 25 basis points. But will we see a double cut? We'll find out Wednesday.
Read on to see the entire weekly economic calendar of the most important upcoming economic reports scheduled to be released in the next several days. At times, we provide expanded previews and recaps for select reports.
Please check back often. This economic calendar is updated regularly. Bolded reports are those considered more noteworthy. All reporting times are in Eastern Time.
Economic calendar highlights
Monday (9/15)
Economic report | Period | Time released |
Empire State Manufacturing Index | September | 8:30 am |
Tuesday (9/16)
How's the consumer?
The Census Bureau said retail sales increased by 0.5% in July compared to June, in line with Wall Street expectations as the U.S. consumer remained resilient despite continuing economic uncertainty.
Markets will watch closely incoming data for August before Tuesday's opening bell for signs of similar resilience amid an uncertain employment market and lingering questions about whether and when consumers will feel the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs.
As Jefferies Chief U.S. Economist Tom Simons notes, the headline unemployment rate has risen from 4.0% in May 2024 to 4.3% as of August, while the headline rate plus those characterized as "discouraged workers" has risen to 8.1%, its highest level since October 2021. And the share of the labor force reported as "permanent job losers" is up to 1.1% from 0.7% in mid-2022.
The Jefferies Consumer Health Index (CHI) declined by three points in July to 50, on weakness in the labor market evidenced by falling real wage gains and "a chunky uptick in credit card usage." That's four consecutive months of declines for the CHI and its lowest reading since April 2024.
Economic report | Period | Time released |
Retail sales | August | 8:30 am |
Import prices | August | 8:30 am |
Industrial production | August | 9:15 am |
Business inventories | August | 10 am |
NAHB Housing Market Index | September | 10 am |
Wednesday (9/17)
How big will the Fed rate cut be?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting opens on Tuesday, September 16, and the FOMC will release its updated monetary policy statement at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time on Wednesday, September 17.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's press conference will follow at 2:30 pm EST.
According to CME FedWatch, as of Friday, September 12, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 94.5%, up from 89.0% as of September 5. The probability of a double move declined from 11.0% on September 5 to 5.5% after a hot August CPI report.
Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist Matthew Luzzetti expects the Fed to deliver a 25-basis-point cut and signal more reductions to at meetings in October and December.
"The median dot of the updated Summary of Economic Projections will likely show 75 basis points of total reductions for 2025," Luzzetti forecast, "25 basis points more than in June."
According to Luzzetti, the FOMC statement "should reflect the risk management concerns around the labor side of their dual mandate flagged by Chair Powell at Jackson Hole."
Economic report | Period | Time released |
Housing starts | August | 8:30 am |
Building permits | August | 8:30 am |
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy statement | N/A | 2 pm |
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's press conference | N/A | 2:30 pm |
Thursday (9/18)
Economic report | Period | Time released |
Weekly jobless claims | Week ending September 13 | 8:30 am |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey | September | 8:30 am |
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index | August | 10 am |
Friday (9/19)
There are no noteworthy economic reports scheduled for release on Friday, September 19.
Reporting schedules are provided Forex Factory and MarketWatch.
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