What to Look Out for in Economic Data This Week (October 5-9)

We'll see a light but steady stream of incoming data from this week's economic calendar, beginning with results of two services purchasing managers' surveys on Monday.

The official quiet period for the October Fed meeting doesn't begin until Saturday, October 17, but we'll hear from just two officials from the central bank. We will get the minutes from the September Fed meeting on Wednesday, though.

On Thursday, in addition to weekly jobless claims, markets will pay close attention to preliminary results from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for October.

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Economic reports we're watching

Wednesday, October 7: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes: The FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate for the first time in three years last month. We'll see more detail about the unanimous vote for a hike, as well as what it suggests for this month's FOMC meeting.

Thursday, October 8: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary): September sentiment survey data show consumers are feeling bad about the current situation amid an energy shock, and their expectations for the future are ebbing, too.

Read on to see the entire weekly economic calendar of the most important upcoming economic reports scheduled to be released in the next several days. At times, we provide expanded previews and recaps for select reports.

Please check back often. This economic calendar is updated regularly. Bolded reports are those considered more noteworthy. All reporting times are in Eastern Time.

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Monday (10/5)

Tuesday (10/6)

Wednesday (10/7)

What the September FOMC minutes say about the October Fed meeting

As Deutsche Bank strategists Matthew Raskin, Steven Zeng and Andrew Fu note, the FOMC delivered on market expectations when it raised interest rates by 25 basis points last month.

At the same time, the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections included a "more hawkish than expected shift in the dot plot" that signals the "start of a modest hiking cycle."

The strategists say Warsh's press-conference emphasis on the need to tighten financial conditions suggested we may see more hikes than if he'd focused on risk management or removal of insurance cuts from late 2025.

But they also note a "strong consensus" in the SEP for just one more hike in 2026, as well as the potential for energy prices to moderate and the timing of the October Fed meeting relative to midterm elections.

Indeed, milder-than-expected August data for the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), gives the FOMC some breathing room heading into its meeting this month.

As of October 2, on the heels of a cooler-than-expected September jobs report, CME FedWatch showed an 83.9% probability the Fed will hold, up from 35.8% on September 25.

Fed funds futures pricing also showed a 66.1% probability the FOMC raises rates by 25 basis points in December.

Thursday (10/8)

Consumers are worried about price instability

They may differ in methodology, focus and long-term behavior. But, right now, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index are trending in the same basic direction, and for the same basic reasons.

The revised Michigan index printed its second-lowest reading since 1952 in September, and the Conference Board index fell to levels it hadn't seen since 2014 last month.

At the same time, labor market data and consumer spending remain stable, strong, even, for the latter.

With specific regard to the Conference Board survey, William Blair economist Richard de Chazal observes a widening gap "between how consumers feel and how they spend."

But he also notes a difficult survey period for households, including gasoline near $4.50 a gallon, 30-year mortgage rates above 7%, a 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since 2007 and a Fed set to raise rates again.

"Prices were the dominant concern," the economist concludes. Indeed, consumers' inflation expectations weighed on the Michigan index. That's the trend Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and his fellow voting members of the FOMC will watch.

As Chazal concludes, "A weakening consumer argues for patience, while rising inflation expectations leave room for further policy restriction."

Friday (10/9)

Reporting schedules are provided Forex Factory and MarketWatch.

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