David Payne
David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Latest articles by David Payne
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Global Freight Costs Settle as Lumber Prices Rise: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Freight shipping costs for air cargo are lowering to pre-pandemic levels as lumber prices jump due to Canadian wildfires and new home builds.
By David Payne Published
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About Kiplinger’s Economic Outlooks
Economic Forecasts Regularly updated insights and analysis on the economy’s next moves.
By David Payne Last updated
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Consumers Still Spending but Looking For Deals: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Consumers are shopping more during major online sales, but while total sales are up, the average purchase cost dipped.
By David Payne Published
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UPS and UAW Labor Disputes Rage Over Wage Fights: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts United Auto Workers are at a standstill in negotiations with the Big Three automakers, and UPS has narrowly avoided a Teamsters strike, for now.
By Sean Lengell Published
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Auto Market Recovers Slowly but Deals Still Hard to Find: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Understand how the auto market is slowly recovering as car inventory improves. Buyers have more options, but interest rates are still high.
By David Payne Published
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Recession Delayed to 2024, If Any: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Rising interest rates haven’t slowed consumer spending enough to bring the economy into a recession so far, but it could still be on the horizon.
By David Payne Published
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Risk of Fall Government Shutdown: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts The latest Congress stalemate risks a government shutdown in October 2023, spending cuts and a dent in GDP growth.
By David Payne Published
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China’s Economy Weakened by Low House Prices and Falling Exports: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts China’s economy lost momentum in May due in part to fewer exports and declining housing prices, but the country’s fast fashion retailers are booming.
By David Payne Published
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Cooling Labor Market Can Help Inflation Come Down: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Inflation could ease further as the labor market cools, with unemployment edging up and more workers who are reluctant to quit.
By David Payne Published
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U.S. Debt on Course to Balloon Before It Shrinks: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts See why U.S. debt will continue to rise, thanks to factors such as inflation, Medicare, and Social Security spending.
By David Payne Published
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Mixed Bag on Business Costs as Manufacturing Costs Fall, Oil is Headed Up: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Mixed bag on business costs as manufacturing and gas prices fall, but oil is up: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
By David Payne Published
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Spending Cuts Could Trigger Deeper Slowdown: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Spending Cuts Could Trigger Deeper Slowdown: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
By David Payne Last updated
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Shortage of electrical engineers to power labor market growth: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts A lack of skilled graduates and funding are contributing to the shortage.
By David Payne Published
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What's Likely to Happen to Inflation Bond Rates
I-bonds are likely to become a good — not great — savings option as inflation bond rates are expected to lower.
By David Payne Published
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Kiplinger’s Economic Outlooks
Economic Forecasts Kiplinger’s Economic Outlooks: insights on the economy’s next moves.
By David Payne Last updated
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As Used-Car Prices Fall, Financing Costs Rise
Prices of used cars are off their painful peak and should continue to ease, but rising interest rates are killing any gains in affordability for those who can’t bring cash to the table.
By David Payne Last updated
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Holiday Bargains Ahead for Shoppers as Retailers Shed Overstock
Many (though not all) vendors will be turning to discounts and clearances even as inflation eats at their sales.
By David Payne Last updated
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Social Security COLA Set to Rise
retirement Consumer prices have spiked this year, meaning a higher Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2023.
By David Payne Last updated
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Is Relief from Shipping Woes Finally in Sight?
business After years of supply chain snags, freight shipping is finally returning to something more like normal.
By David Payne Published
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USPS to Raise Rates for "Holiday" Season Again
personal finance If you want to avoid surge pricing for the postal service, you’ll need to send your holiday packages in September.
By David Muhlbaum Published
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What Will Happen With Health Costs in 2023
Business Costs & Regulation Higher drug costs are likely to accelerate health insurance premium increases.
By David Payne Published
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Retirees to Get Big Social Security COLA Boost for 2022
social security The increase in the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2022 was driven by higher prices for fuel, appliances and cars.
By David Payne Published
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Retirees Likely to Receive Significant Bump in Social Security Benefits in 2022
social security The cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security benefits for next year is expected to be the largest since 1982.
By David Payne Published
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Federal Debt: A Heavy Load
Economic Forecasts The debt continues to grow, but record-low interest rates could ease the long-term damage.
By David Payne Published
Economic Forecasts