Is the Economy Inching Toward a Recession?: The Kiplinger Letter

The odds of the U.S. economy tipping into a recession could depend on how a few key issues are resolved in the coming months.

We may not be in a recession, but the economy still faces several threats in the coming months, which together figure to act as a drag on growth. How much of a slowdown we get depends largely on how these looming issues play out. To help you understand what is going on with the U.S. economy and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest… 

First up — the autoworkers strike at the Detroit Big ThreeGeneral MotorsFord and Stellantis. The UAW has struck three production
plants (one from each company) and 38 parts distribution centers for GM and Stellantis so far, and the two sides remain divided on a new wage deal, with the carmakers’ latest offer not enough for the United Auto Workers’ leader. But we know that consumers will suffer when factories go dark. Vehicle inventories were just recovering this year after COVID-era shortages.

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David Payne
Staff Economist, The Kiplinger Letter

David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.