Skip to headerSkip to main contentSkip to footer
Get our Free E-newslettersGet our Free E-newsletters
Kiplinger logoLink to homepage
Get our Free E-newslettersGet our Free E-newsletters
Subscribe to Kiplinger
Subscribe to Kiplinger
Save up to 76%
Subscribe
Subscribe to Kiplinger
  • Store
  • Home
  • Investing
  • Retirement
  • Taxes
  • Personal Finance
  • Your Business
  • Wealth Creation
  • More
    • Podcasts
    • Economic Outlooks
    • Tools
  • My Kiplinger
    • Kiplinger's Personal Finance Magazine
    • The Kiplinger Letter
    • The Kiplinger Tax Letter
    • Kiplinger's Investing for Income
    • Kiplinger's Retirement Report
    • Store
    • Manage My E-Newsletters
    • My Subscriptions
  • Home
  • Markets
Markets

Recessions: 10 Facts You Must Know

The U.S. is officially in recession. But what is a recession, exactly, and how long should we expect to be in one? We tackle this and other questions here.

by: John Waggoner
June 8, 2020
Shut down store fronts in Rockaway, Queens, New York City

Getty Images

It's official. The U.S. entered a recession in February, according to the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which is the arbiter of these things.

A recession is the scariest creature in the average investor's closet of anxieties. There's little wonder why. People fear recessions because they can mean lower home prices, lower stock prices – and no job.

Any number of things can cause, or exacerbate, a recession: an exogenous shock, such as today's COVID-19 crisis or the Arab oil embargo of 1973; soaring interest rates; or ill-conceived legislation, such as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930.

Recessions are parts of the warp and woof of a dynamic economy, albeit unpleasant ones. If you're prepared for a recession, there will be plenty of opportunities when the recession ends. Thus, the more you know about recessions, the better. Here are 10 must-know facts about recessions.

  • 20 Best Stocks to Invest In During a Recession

1 of 10

Why Are They Called 'Recessions'?

Getty Images

Because calling them "depressions" is too scary. No, really.

After the Great Depression – a term once considered milder than "panic" or "crisis" – the term "depression" for an economic downturn seemed particularly terrifying. Economists began to use the term "recession" instead.

Currently, "depression" is used to mean an extremely sharp and intractable recession, but there is no formal definition of the term in economics. Our current recession includes levels of unemployment not seen since before WWII. And the 2007-09 recession certainly had uncomfortable similarities to the Great Depression, in that it involved a financial crisis, extremely high unemployment, and falling prices for goods and services. Economists now call it the Great Recession.

Our current recession doesn't yet have a name.

 

  • 24 Dividend Cuts and Suspensions Chalked Up to the Coronavirus

2 of 10

What Constitutes an Official Recession?

Getty Images

Someone has to be the official arbiter of recessions and recoveries, and the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is that someone.

Although two quarters of consecutive GDP contraction is the standard shorthand for a recession, the NBER actually uses many indicators to determine the start and end of a recession.

In fact, GDP is not the committee's favorite indicator: It prefers indicators of domestic production and employment instead. Other signs of recession include declines in real (inflation-adjusted) manufacturing and wholesale-retail trade sales and industrial production. Prolonged declines in production, employment, real income and other indicators also contribute to the NBER's recession call.

In the case of the current recession, NBER says that "the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions."

 

  • 21 Stocks Warren Buffett Is Selling (And 1 He's Buying)

3 of 10

How Long Do Recessions Typically Last?

Getty Images

The average length of recessions going all the way back to 1857 is 17.5 months. Recessions actually have been shorter and less severe since the days of the Buchanan administration. The long-term average includes the 1873 recession – a kidney stone of a downturn that lasted 65 months. It also includes the Great Depression, which lasted 43 months.

If we look at the period since World War II, recessions have become less harsh, lasting an average of 11.1 months. In part, that's because bank failures no longer mean that you lose your life savings, thanks to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and because the Federal Reserve has gotten (somewhat) better at managing the country's money supply.

The longest post-WWII recession was the most recent one, which began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, a total of 18 months. It's too soon to say how long our current recession will last.

 

4 of 10

How Often Do Recessions Happen?

Getty Images

Again, since 1857, a recession has occurred, on average, about every three-and-a-quarter years. It used to be the government felt that letting recessions burn themselves out was the best solution for everyone concerned.

Since World War II, we've gone an average of 58.4 months between recessions, or nearly five years. The last economic expansion, starting at the end of the Great Recession, lasted 128 months. By that measure, we were overdo for an economic retraction.

 

  • 14 Bankruptcy Filings Chalked Up to COVID-19

5 of 10

When Was the Harshest Recession?

Getty Images

The recession of 1873 was actually known as the Great Depression until the 1929 recession rolled in.

The recession started with a financial panic in 1873 with the failure of Jay Cooke & Company, a major bank. The event caused a chain reaction of bank failures across the country and the collapse of a bubble in railroad stocks. The New York Stock Exchange shut down for 10 days in response. The recession lasted until 1877.

 

  • 15 Great Retirement Stocks to Buy at Reasonable Prices

6 of 10

What's the Worst Effect of a Recession?

Getty Images

An old economist joke is that a recession is when someone else loses their job, and a depression is when you lose your job. (Very few economists have transitioned to stand-up comedy.)

Your job is your main source of income, and that's why it's important to have a few months' salary in cash as an emergency fund – especially since jobs are increasingly hard to come by in a recession.

 

  • 33 Major U.S. Companies Hiring Now to Meet Coronavirus Demand

7 of 10

When Is the Best Time to Buy Stocks in a Recession?

Getty Images

Historically, the best time to buy stocks is when the NBER announces the start of a recession. It takes the bureau at least six months to determine if a recession has started; occasionally, it takes longer. The average post-WWII recession lasts 11.1 months. Often, by the time the bureau has figured out the start of the recession, it's close to the end. Many times, investors anticipate the beginning of a recovery long before the NBER does, and stocks begin to rise around the time of the actual economic turnaround.

For instance, the Great Recession was officially announced on Dec. 1, 2008 – a full year after it had started. The recession ended in June 2009; the bear market ended three months earlier, on March 6, 2009. The ensuing bull market lasted more than a decade.

 

  • 13 Dividend Stocks That Have Paid Investors for 100+ Years

8 of 10

What’s the Best Thing to Do With Your Money During a Recession?

Getty Images

Pay off your credit card debt. Here's why: Paying off a credit card that charges 18% interest is the rough equivalent of getting an 18% return on your investment, and you’re not going to get that from most other investments during a recession.

That said, bond prices typically rise in value during a recession – provided the recession isn’t sparked by rising interest rates.

 

  • 9 Best REITs to Buy for COVID-19 Protection

9 of 10

What Is the Best Early Warning Sign of a Recession?

Getty Images

More than the stock market, consumer confidence or the index of leading economic indicators, an inverted yield curve has been a solid predictor of economic downturns.

An inverted yield curve is when short-term government securities, such as the three-month Treasury bill, yield more than the 10-year Treasury bond. This indicates that bond traders expect weaker growth in the future. The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years, with just one false signal.

This indicator worked this time around too. The yield curve inverted multiple times in 2019 and early 2020. On March 3, the three-month T-bill yielded 1.13%, and the 10-year T-note yielded 1.1%. (To make matters a bit more complicated, some economists prefer using the two-year T-note yield instead of the three-month T-bill.) The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 indicators – including the stock market and consumer confidence – and is useful for those who want a broader view of the economic picture.

 

  • 10 Health and Pharmaceutical Companies Fighting the COVID-19 Coronavirus

10 of 10

Does the Federal Reserve Cause Recessions?

Getty Images

Officially, the Fed never wants to start a recession, because part of its dual mandate is to keep the economy strong. Unfortunately, the other part of the Fed's dual mandate is to keep inflation low. The main cure for soaring inflation is higher interest rates, which slows the economy. In 1981, the Fed hiked interest rates so high that three-month T-bills yielded more than 15%. Those rates put the brakes on the economy and ended inflation – at the price of a short but sharp recession.

 

  • Every Warren Buffett Stock Ranked: The Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio
  • Markets
  • investing
Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on LinkedIn

Recommended

The Best and Worst Presidents (According to the Stock Market)
Markets

The Best and Worst Presidents (According to the Stock Market)

Which American presidents oversaw the best stock market performances? Just for grins, let's see what a 'stock market Mount Rushmore' might look like.
January 19, 2021
Is the Stock Market Open on Inauguration Day 2021?
Markets

Is the Stock Market Open on Inauguration Day 2021?

The federal government will enjoy an off day on Inauguration Day, but the stock and bond markets alike will conduct business as usual.
January 19, 2021
5 Danger Signs That You’re an ‘Immature’ Investor
investing

5 Danger Signs That You’re an ‘Immature’ Investor

To make the most of your investments, you need to think about them in the right way. Investing immaturity can hold you back from reaching the next lev…
January 11, 2021
James K. Glassman’s Stock Picks for 2021
Kiplinger's Investing Outlook

James K. Glassman’s Stock Picks for 2021

Kiplinger columnist James K. Glassman has been picking 10 stocks a year for decades now. We talk about what’s on his 2021 list, and how previous picks…
January 7, 2021

Most Popular

Where's My Stimulus Check? Use the IRS's "Get My Payment" Portal to Get an Answer
Coronavirus and Your Money

Where's My Stimulus Check? Use the IRS's "Get My Payment" Portal to Get an Answer

The IRS has an online tool that lets you track the status of your second stimulus check.
January 18, 2021
The Recovery Rebate Credit: Get Your Full Stimulus Check Payment With This Tax Credit
Tax Breaks

The Recovery Rebate Credit: Get Your Full Stimulus Check Payment With This Tax Credit

If you didn't get a stimulus check, or you didn't get the full amount, you may be able to claim the recovery rebate credit on your 2020 tax return.
January 18, 2021
When Could We Get a Third Stimulus Check?
Coronavirus and Your Money

When Could We Get a Third Stimulus Check?

President-elect Joe Biden and others in Congress are pushing for a third-round of stimulus checks, but it might be a while before we get them.
January 18, 2021
  • Customer Service
  • About Us
  • Advertise With Us (PDF)
  • Privacy Policy
  • Cookie Policy
  • Kiplinger Careers
  • Accessibility
  • Privacy Preferences

Subscribe to Kiplinger's Personal Finance

Be a smarter, better informed investor.
Save up to 76%Subscribe to Kiplinger's Personal Finance
Dennis Publishing Ltd logoLink to Dennis Publishing Ltd website
Do Not Sell My Information

The Kiplinger Washington Editors, Inc., is part of the Dennis Publishing Ltd. Group.
All Contents © 2021, The Kiplinger Washington Editors

Follow us on InstagramFollow us on FacebookFollow us on TwitterConnect on LinkedInConnect on YouTube