U.S. Debt on Course to Balloon Before It Shrinks: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts

The nation's debt is affected by factors such as inflation, Medicare, and Social Security spending.

3D map of USA with its flag with a metal weight representing debt on a dark background
(Image credit: Getty)

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Congress just passed a deal averting one fiscal crisis. But the government’s long-term outlook is little changed: Daunting. Decades of deficit spending have added up to a national debt exceeding $25.8 trillion. And now, interest rates are climbing, which makes servicing that debt harder. Meanwhile, demographic trends mean that Washington’s retirement and healthcare outlays will only mount in the coming years. Let’s take a look at the rising tide of red ink and ask how it might be stemmed. Also, what will be the economic implications?

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David Payne
Staff Economist, The Kiplinger Letter

David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.