When Is the Next Fed Meeting?

"When is the next Fed meeting?" is a question that hasn't weighed this heavily on anxious investors' minds in probably four decades. 

Which is fair enough, really. The worst bout of inflation to hit the U.S. economy in 40 years peaked more than two years ago, and yet the Federal Reserve has yet to bring interest rates down from a 23-year high.

That's almost certainly about to change. Fed Chief Jerome Powell took a decisively dovish turn in late August at Jackson Hole. Signs of cooling in the labor market, easing inflationary pressures and concerns about the health of the economic expansion have tilted the Fed's calculus toward easing. A central bank more attentive to the employment side of its mandate simply has to cut rates, the thinking goes. The only question is by how much: a quarter of a percentage point or half a percentage point?

Subscribe to Kiplinger’s Personal Finance

Be a smarter, better informed investor.

Save up to 74%

Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters

Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.

Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.

Sign up

Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) wrapped up its July policy meeting by keeping the short-term federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%. However, language in the rate-setting committee's statement indicated that it has become more attentive to the jobs component of its double remit, which comprises both stable prices and maximum employment. 

"The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance," the Fed said in a statement. "The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate."

Although economists as a group have become more optimistic about the path of the economy, surveys show they still put the odds of a recession hitting in the next 12 months at about 33%. They have good reasons to remain cautious. The bond market remains awash in inverted yield curves, for one thing, which is not very reassuring. For what it's worth, the New York Fed's yield-curve model gives a 62% probability to the U.S. entering a recession over the next 12 months. 

Then there's the labor market, which is showing incipient signs of cooling. The July jobs report revealed that hiring slowed markedly, while the unemployment rate hit a three-year high. The downbeat reading on the labor market should prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon and more steeply, experts said, with at least two more reductions looking likelier before year-end.

Of course, the July jobs print will be old news by the time of the next central bank confab. A data-dependent FOMC will give greater weight to the next jobs report, which lands less than a fortnight before the next Fed meeting.

The bottom line? When you consider the Fed's dual mandate against the backdrop of a mid-cycle economic expansion (sticky-ish inflation, a somewhat softer labor market), it kind of makes sense that folks are obsessed with the question of "when is the next Fed meeting?"

The fact that lower interest rates today equal higher returns for equities tomorrow also makes rate cuts attractive to market participants. 

The next Fed meeting: what to expect

For the record, the central bank's rate-setting committee is called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

As you can see from the FOMC meeting calendar below, the committee meets eight times a year. These meetings last two days and conclude with the FOMC releasing its policy decision at 2 pm Eastern time. The Fed chief then holds a press conference at 2:30 pm. (Pro tip: as closely scrutinized as the Fed statement might be, market participants are usually even more keen on what the Fed chair has to say in the press conference.)

As for the next Fed meeting, it will begin on September 17 and conclude with a policy statement on September 18 at 2 pm Eastern. 

The policy statement is forecast to kick of the Fed's easing campaign. All that would appear to be in doubt is the size of the cut. As of September 5, interest rate traders assigned a 59% probability to the FOMC slicing the short-term federal funds rate by a quarter of percentage point (or 25 basis points) to a target range of 5.0% to 5.25%, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The remainder, or 41%, expect the FOMC to cut by 50 basis points. 

For those wondering "when is the next Fed meeting?," have a look at the schedule, courtesy of the FOMC, below.

Related Content

• When Will the Fed Cut Rates? The Experts Weigh In
• Warren Buffett Stocks: Analyzing the Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio
• Analysts' Top S&P 500 Stocks to Buy Now