"When is the next Fed meeting?" is a question that hasn't weighed this heavily on anxious investors' minds in probably four decades.
Which is fair enough, really. The worst bout of inflation to hit the U.S. economy in 40 years was nearly back down to the central bank's long-term target when trade uncertainty once again raised the threat of rising prices.
The Federal Reserve brought borrowing costs down from a 23-year high in September 2024, slashing interest rates by a surprising half-percentage point.
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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) then followed up in November and December by cutting the short-term federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps), or 0.25%, at each meeting with the target range currently at 4.25% to 4.50%.
That said, the change in the political landscape complicates the central bank's calculus, as inflationary pressures could resurface under new administration policies.
That's a problem, because the Fed has a dual mandate. In addition to stable prices, the central bank is supposed to support maximum employment.
The question now is centered on what the Fed will do this year and beyond.
"Blocking out all the trade war noise, subdued inflation data will give the Fed some cover and comfort to cut rates as necessary if/when growth buckles more seriously in coming weeks and months," writes Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.
"At this point, we are looking for three Fed cuts in the second half of the year, and three additional cuts in 2026, taking the funds rate just below 3%, a quarter-point lower than we were forecasting earlier this year," he adds.
That view comports with rising-if-mixed recession odds. Economists as a group now forecast a 40% chance of recession in the next year, up from 30% at the beginning of 2025.
For what it's worth, the New York Fed's yield-curve model gives a 30% probability to the U.S. entering a recession over the next 12 months.
The bottom line? When you consider the Fed's dual mandate against the backdrop of a mid-cycle economic expansion (easing inflation, slackening in the labor market), it kind of makes sense that folks are obsessed with the question of "when is the next Fed meeting?"
The fact that lower interest rates today equal higher returns for equities tomorrow also makes rate cuts rather attractive to market participants.
The next Fed meeting: what to expect
For the record, the central bank's rate-setting committee is called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
As you can see from the FOMC meeting calendar below, the committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks. The FOMC is required to meet at least four times a year and may convene additional meetings if necessary.
The convention of meeting eight times per year dates back to the market stresses of 1981.
FOMC meetings last two days and conclude with the committee releasing its policy decision at 2 pm Eastern time. The Fed chief then holds a press conference at 2:30 pm.
(Pro tip: as closely scrutinized as the Fed statement might be, market participants are usually even more keen on what the Fed chair has to say in the press conference.)
As for the next Fed meeting, it will begin on May 6 and conclude with a policy statement on May 7 at 2 pm Eastern. A pause is by far and away the betting favorite.
As of April 11, interest rate traders assigned a 79% probability to the FOMC keeping the short-term federal funds rate at a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
June remains the betting favorite for the next cut, with a 60% chance of a quarter-point cut.
For those wondering "when is the next Fed meeting?," have a look at the schedule, courtesy of the FOMC, below.
January 28 to 29 |
March 18 to 19 |
May 6 to 7 |
June 17 to 18 |
July 29 to 30 |
September 16 to 17 |
October 28 to 29 |
December 9 to 10 |
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