Republicans to Gain Ground in 2010 Campaigns

Winning back Congress isn’t in the cards, but the GOP will boost its ranks at least a little in the House and maybe in the Senate, too.

By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

October 7, 2009

Republican prospects in the 2010 midterm congressional election are looking better, as voter anxiety and frustration with Washington take hold in a charged political climate that shows little sign of letting up soon. Being in the minority may actually be a blessing in disguise for the GOP. Out of power in the White House and Congress, Republicans will be held less accountable for the economy, unemployment, the costly federal bailouts and budget deficits. Add to the mix the myriad questions and voter doubts expressed over health care reforms, climate change and energy legislation, financial regulatory overhauls and future U.S. missions in Afghanistan and Iraq. Plus history shows that in modern times, the party out of power in the White House usually makes gains in the first midterm election after a new president takes office.

Republicans can figure on adding 10-15 seats in the House, possibly more if the economic recovery is very slow in coming and Democrats come off looking ineffective after two years controlling the White House and Congress. The GOP also has a good shot at reclaiming one or more seats in the Senate to deny Democrats a 60-vote majority that can be used, if they stick together, to end Republican filibusters.

The current breakdown in the House is 256 Democrats and 177 Republicans. There are two vacancies -- one in New York and one in California, and they will be filled in special elections next month. The current division in the Senate is 58 Democrats, two Independents, who caucus with the Democrats, and 40 Republicans.

While GOP gains are likely, a huge wave isn’t, at least nothing near the 1994 tsunami that swept Republicans, led by Newt Gingrich, to power in both chambers. For Republicans to pull that off in the House again next year, they’d need an immense and sustained voter discontent and a series of crushing Democratic setbacks and failures. The Senate is even further out of reach.

Working against a GOP wave is the lack of competitive open-seat races, which are often easier for the opposing party to snatch because a well-known and usually better funded incumbent is not on the ballot. Also, after the 2000 Census, most districts were carefully redrawn to favor one or the other party. That move made a switch in party control of a seat even more challenging.

It’s still too early to compile a full list of retirements, but we do know that at least 18 House members -- 12 Republicans and six Democrats -- aren’t seeking reelection because they’re running for higher office. Other retirements are likely in the coming months, with possibly more to come from the Republican side, where veteran members may be frustrated with their lack of power in the minority, especially in the House. Democratic House leaders are working to keep any retirements on their side at a bare minimum.

At the outset, House Republicans have a strong shot of picking up only three of the current open-seat races held by Democrats: Louisiana’s 3rd District, currently represented by Charlie Melancon, New Hampshire’s 2nd District, held by Paul Hodes, and Pennsylvania’s 7th District, held by Joe Sestak.

Democrats have strong prospects of winning GOP-controlled open seats -- both in Illinois’ 10th District, held by Mark Kirk, and in Pennsylvania’s 6th District, held by Jim Gerlach.

Among a small number of Democratic incumbents expected to be running for reelection who appear vulnerable at this early stage are freshmen Walt Minnick in Idaho’s 1st District and Frank Kratovil in Maryland’s 1st. Republicans will also target a dozen or more centrist or conservative Democrats who represent House districts that 2008 Republican presidential candidate John McCain won last year. At this early stage, it is unclear if more than only a handful of these so-called Blue Dog seats will be highly competitive next year.

In the Senate, there are only a few Democratic seats up in the 2010 cycle that are giving majority Democrats some worry. They include the open seat of Roland Burris in Illinois, who’s retiring, and who was appointed by former scandal tarred Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D). One is in Delaware, where GOP Rep. Michael Castle is seeking the seat once held by Vice President Joe Biden. Castle’s likely opponent is Biden’s son, Beau. Others are the seats of incumbents Chris Dodd of Connecticut, Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, who is still struggling after his switch from the Republican to the Democratic Party.

But Republicans have their own seats to worry about in the Senate. Six Republican senators are retiring, and several of these open seats may end up being tough for the GOP to retain. These seats are in New Hampshire, Ohio, Missouri and Kentucky. Also, one Republican incumbent running for reelection who could be vulnerable is Richard Burr of North Carolina. He very narrowly won in 2004 and is drawing strong potential challengers.

Republicans can count on getting a bump in fund-raising. Despite being in the minority, their national fund-raising committees performed as well or slightly better than Democrats over the summer and are on pace to continue matching Democrats this fall. This is especially so, considering the highly partisan debates on health care, more voter discontent in town hall meetings and also the disaffection of some Democratic liberals who feel their progressive agenda is being overlooked by President Obama and party leaders in favor of centrist politics and efforts at striking bipartisan compromise.

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