More GOP Moderates Giving Up the Fight

The Republican contingent in the next Congress will be both smaller -- and more conservative.

By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

January 3, 2008

It's going to get lonelier for moderate House Republicans. There'll be fewer around after the next election, with ramifications for the party -- and the congressional agenda. Close to half of the Republican retirements announced so far -- eight of 18 -- are members with generally moderate voting records. They frequently irk Republican leaders by siding with Democrats on issues such as a minimum wage increase, tax hikes, environmental policy and domestic spending. They often have to. Their constituency, including several in the northeast, would throw a fit if they acted any other way.

One reason for the departures: Republican leaders are unsympathetic, often hard on moderates who aren't loyal to the leadership. Democrats have tried to be more accepting of their conservative members, letting them off the hook when their constituencies require they take a more independent line than the rest of the party. Not so with Republicans.

The departure of moderate Republicans will open seats and create opportunities in several swing districts. Democrats will aggressively pursue those spots with large party backings, including financial aid, advice and campaign appearances. These upcoming retirements make it much harder for Republicans to regain control of the House -- a long shot at best. Among moderates retiring whose seats may be up for grabs are Jim Ramstad, Minn., Mike Ferguson, N.J., Deborah Pryce, Ohio, and Jim Saxton, N.J.

The retirements will also tighten conservatives' hold on the GOP caucus. With fewer members in the next Congress who will cross Republican leaders, that'll mean fewer compromises and more party-line or nearly party-line votes. Democrats will therefore need a bigger majority to enact their agenda.

That may be a welcome development for supporters of the conservative caucus. They will have more cohesion. On the other hand, fewer moderates also makes it harder for the party to broaden its appeal to a larger range of voters, not just to rock-bed conservative regions. That's one thing Republicans will need to do to make real gains in Congress.

GOP moderates are also leaving the Senate, though not as many. Pending Republican retirements include John Warner, Va., Pete Domenici, N.M., and Chuck Hagel, Neb. Each describes himself as conservative, but have crossed party lines and voted with Democrats several times on major legislation that the GOP leadership wanted killed.

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