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Obama Widens Lead
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For presidential candidates, January and February will be do or die as the heavily front-loaded primary schedule takes final, if somewhat bizarre, form.
Iowa and New Hampshire will still go first, maintaining their historical positions, even if that means voting very early in January, and possibly even December, now that many other states are crowding the primary calendar.
Over 20 states, including delegate-rich California, Florida and Texas, plan to pick their delegates by mid-February, more than enough in all likelihood to determine the Democratic and Republican nominees. Democratic Party leaders moved over the weekend to sanction Florida for scheduling its primary in January, instead of February, in a belated and probably ineffective effort to prevent states from getting too far ahead of the calendar.
The early calendar is already giving the candidates migraines as they try to figure out where best to spend their time and money. Some, such as Democrat John Edwards and Republican Mitt Romney, are focusing foremost on Iowa and New Hampshire, banking on early wins propelling them to the top. But Democratic front-runners Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and the GOP's Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson will be running more national campaigns with staff and resources spread far and wide in a post-New Hampshire gambit.
Is it good for the democratic process? That all depends. It certainly limits the influence of Iowa and New Hampshire. That's fine for those who say the two states are not typical of the rest of the nation economically, socially and demographically. True enough. But the front-loading also means less time for the one-to-one contact that used to characterize the early tests, and it reduces the prospects for the less well financed or a dark horse to break out of the pack. Instead, we'll see more television ads and big, impersonal rallies as candidates jet from one state to the next.
A bigger question may be what happens after February. If the nominees are known by then, it will allow more time to debate the issues, assuming voters want that and the candidates are willing to oblige. Campaign fatigue could well set in long before the November election. The party conventions in the summer will be even more meaningless.
It may actually benefit an independent candidate, such as New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, for instance. Though Bloomberg says he won't run, he can change his mind after seeing who the nominees are. He'll still have plenty of time to get his name on all the ballots and make it a serious three-way race.
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