The March Fed meeting kicks off this Tuesday, March 17, and concludes on Wednesday, March 18, with the central bank's latest policy decision.
Following three straight quarter-point rate cuts to end 2025 and with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell nearing the end of his term, the central bank is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged this time around.
But as energy prices spike amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East, Wall Street will be tuned into the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) policy statement and Chair Powell's press conference to see how concerned the central bank is about the impact on inflation and interest rates.
This meeting also features the quarterly release of the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections, or "dot plot," which will show where the committee expects the federal funds rate and inflation to be at the end of 2026.
The Kiplinger team is reporting live on the March Fed meeting, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what it could mean for the economy. Scroll for the latest updates.
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It's a big week for global central bank meetings
It's a big week for central bank meetings around the world. In addition to the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Bank of England (BoE) will be meeting to issue their latest policy decisions.
According to Jim Reid, global head of Macro Research and Thematic Strategy at Deutsche Bank, this marks the first time the four central banks have held their gatherings in the same week since December 2021.
"All of them will have a very complex backdrop to deal with, shaped by geopolitical risk, volatile energy prices, and unsettled inflation dynamics," Reid says. "Clearly, the Middle East is the center of attention for markets right now."
It's widely expected that all four central banks will leave interest rates unchanged this time around, says Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, but he expects the Fed and the Bank of England to resume rate cuts later this year.
Nathan doesn't expect rate cuts from the ECB until next year, while the BoJ will likely raise rates at some point down the road. "However, if the current spike in oil prices persists, we may need to revise these views as policymakers grapple with the conflicting inflationary pressure and brakes on economic growth that come with higher energy costs," he adds.
- Karee Venema
Stocks are higher to start Fed week
Stocks are trading higher to start Fed week as bargain hunters swoop in following last week's third straight weekly loss for U.S. markets.
The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1.1% at 47,045, the broader S&P 500 is 1.2% higher at 6,708, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has gained 1.3% to 22,390.
Mega-cap stocks are creating tailwinds for the broader market. Meta Platforms (META), for one, is 3% higher on unconfirmed reports that the Facebook parent is planning to lay off 20% of its workforce.
And chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) is up 2.3% ahead of GTC, its annual artificial intelligence conference.
As for oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures are down 3.7% at $95.06 per barrel, but remain more than 40% higher month to date.
- Karee Venema
Housing market could keep inflation anchored, say Manulife John Hancock co-chief investment strategists
Recent inflation data has been mixed. The February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was lower on an annual basis compared to January – 2.4% vs 2.7% to start the year.
But the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – the Fed's preferred measure of inflation – came in at its highest level since March 2024.
Part of this difference, say Emily Roland and Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategists at Manulife John Hancock Investments, is that the CPI gives greater weight to shelter costs, which have been slowly trending down.
And while markets now consider the most recently reported CPI and PCE readings dated given that spiking energy costs – including higher gas prices – have raised inflation expectations and lowered rate-cut odds, the two believe shelter costs could provide some stability.
"While we are fully aware of the risk to inflation rising due to the oil price spike, we would not forget about shelter/housing as a key reason inflationary dynamics may be anchored to some degree," Roland and Miskin write in emailed commentary. "The 30-year fixed mortgage rate spiked last week from just over 6% to now nearly 6.5%. Higher mortgage rates, greater volatility in markets (hindering the growing wealth effect), and increased economic/policy uncertainty (likely to weigh on consumer confidence) could weigh further on the housing market as the year goes on."
This scenario, according to the strategists, "would suggest a more anchored inflation backdrop than the market’s knee-jerk reaction to higher oil prices we have seen recently."
- Karee Venema
With over a decade of experience writing about the stock market, Karee Venema is the senior investing editor at Kiplinger.com. She joined the publication in April 2021, and oversees a wide range of investing coverage, including content focused on equities, fixed income, mutual funds, ETFs, macroeconomics and more.
Fed meeting schedule for 2026
The next Fed meeting, which runs from March 17 to March 18, marks the second gathering of 2026.
"The committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks," writes Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows in his feature, "When Is the Next Fed Meeting?".
The Federal Open Market Committee "is required to meet at least four times a year and may convene additional meetings if necessary," Burrows adds, noting that "the convention of meeting eight times per year dates back to the market stresses of 1981."
Fed meetings last two days and wrap up with the release of a policy decision at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time. This is typically followed by the Fed chair's press conference at 2:30 pm.
Here is the full remaining Fed meeting schedule for 2026:
March 17 to 18
April 28 to 29
June 16 to 17
July 28 to 29
September 15 to 16
October 27 to 28
December 8 to 9