For many investors, the word that most appropriately describes 2025 is "uncertain." There's uncertainty about government trade policies, geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and Ukraine, inflation and interest rates, stock market sentiment, and just about everything else.
In such an environment, many investors look for low-risk, low-volatility stocks. There's no one-size-fits-all approach to measuring a company's risk factors, but one helpful metric is "beta" – a calculation of historic volatility compared to the broad market.
Beta is expressed as a decimalized figure, and a reading of 1.0 means the stock or exchange-traded fund moves perfectly in line with the market.
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Your favorite S&P 500 index fund has a beta of 1.0, considering it literally invests in the benchmark itself.
A beta that is lower than 1.0 means the stock moves less than the broader market. Sleepy consumer staples stocks such as General Mills (GIS) and Campbell Soup (CPB) tend to have the lowest betas among S&P 500 stocks.
If the stock's beta is greater than 1.0, it is typically more than broad market – meaning it's capable of tremendous gains on the good days, but epic crashes when things go south.
With that in mind, we put together a list of the most volatile S&P 500 stocks as measured by their three-year annualized beta. This doesn't mean they are doomed to fail, as some have put up nice gains lately.
But it does mean they rank as the riskiest S&P stocks to buy now and investors should proceed with caution.
Data is as of June 20.
Coinbase Global
- Sector: Financials
- Market value: $78.6 billion
- Beta: 3.6
Coinbase Global (COIN) is a publicly traded crypto exchange listed on the Nasdaq and in good standing with major U.S. regulators. That makes it one of the most established and legitimate crypto platforms out there.
It also has relationships with mainstream brokers and payment platforms, including Visa (V), which offers credit cards that pay rewards in crypto
This makes Coinbase very cozy with old-school banking and finance firms despite its innovative connections to digital assets.
The financial stock surged in the immediate aftermath of November's presidential election on hopes that the Trump administration would create a crypto-friendly environment in Washington.
More recently, it plummeted alongside the broader market amid tariff uncertainty, only to rally once again after the Senate passed the GENIUS Act – a law that aims to provide a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Year over year, shares are now up more than 30%.
The crypto industry's "time on the fringe" is likely ending and will be replaced "by an era of consistent regulation and expanding use-cases with the ultimate potential to supplant the traditional global financial system," says William Blair analyst Andrew Jeffrey.
Jeffrey adds that Coinbase will see an outsized impact from this shift, given its "leadership creates an inherent advantage."
Still, the current uncertainty around crypto policies will keep COIN on this list of riskiest S&P 500 stocks for the time being.
Palantir Technologies
- Sector: Technology
- Market value: $324.0 billion
- Beta: 1.4
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has soared more than fivefold in the past 12 months and is up more than 80% year to date. Indeed, it is one of the best-performing S&P 500 stocks halfway through 2025.
There's good reason for that, too, given that the intelligence community and the U.S. Department of Defense are long-term partners of the data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) platform.
And there are many reasons to expect PLTR to be much more than a flash in the pan based on an AI fad. Indeed, Wall Street is calling for 30% annual revenue growth this year and next. Earnings per share are expected to surge, too.
However, history shows that some growth stocks can crash as hard as they climb. So investors should be aware of the high beta and volatility risk we see in PLTR before presuming this tech stock has nowhere to go but up.
Carnival
- Sector: Consumer discretionary
- Market value: $32.2 billion
- Beta: 3.1
Cruise ship operator Carnival (CCL) developed a reputation as a stand-in for the struggling travel industry writ large during the pandemic.
That made the consumer discretionary stock a prime target for day traders looking to turn a quick profit on big moves related to macro trends involving tariffs, global trade and consumer spending.
But a longer-term look at CCL stock shows that it has a history of making big moves in either direction.
Looking at the price charts across the past 10 years or so indicates that Carnival shares have traded in a wide range of roughly $8 to $70 per share.
These days, CCL trades closer to $24, though many on Wall Street are betting CCL is poised for its next leg up. Indeed, the average price target among the 29 analysts following the stock who are tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence is $28.55 – 20% above current levels.
And UBS Global Research analyst Robin Farley has an even higher target price of $30. Recent channel checks "indicate that cruise demand has held up well despite investor concern about consumer uncertainty," Farley notes, adding that bookings are solid through year's end.
But investors should be aware that this is definitely one of the riskiest S&P 500 stocks and there's no way of knowing for sure which way the wind will blow.
Tesla
- Sector: Consumer discretionary
- Market value: $1.13 trillion
- Beta: 1.78
Most investors are familiar with the relationship between Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk and President Donald Trump.
Sure, electric vehicles (EVs) are seen as a technology with a long-term runway, and TSLA shares have benefited from the company being a first-mover in the space with a powerful brand.
But that all changed after Musk turned his attention to Washington, D.C., and disenchanted a large number of left-leaning consumers.
And public feuds with Donald Trump risk alienating the other side of the aisle, too. Indeed, tangible retribution against Tesla – such as the elimination of EV tax credits in the president's "big, beautiful bill" – could come in the form of unfavorable government policies.
Tesla's share price was cut in half between December and March amid backlash to Musk's political ambitions. But TSLA has gained more than 33% in the past three months after Elon stepped down from his role at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Excitement over the company's soft robotaxi launch in late June is also creating tailwinds.
"All there is to say is that this is the future," wrote Wedbush analyst Dan Ives after Tesla's June 22 robotaxi event in Austin, Texas. The successful launch is "really just the beginning of the Tesla AI story," he added, while reiterating an Outperform (Buy) rating and $500 price target – implied upside of 55% from current levels.
But buyers beware: Big price swings in either direction are why Tesla is on this list of the riskiest stocks in the S&P 500 right now.
Caesars Entertainment
- Sector: Consumer discretionary
- Market value: $5.9 billion
- Beta: 2.5
Casino icon Caesars Entertainment (CZR) operates brick-and-mortar gambling facilities, as well as online sports books, in 32 jurisdictions across North America.
Despite its domestic focus, the company has long been dependent on the gambling-friendly cultures across Asia to send along customers from abroad.
And amid rising tensions between the U.S. and its trade partners, which has negatively impacted travel from key markets such as China, CZR stock is down more than 15% so far in 2025.
The timing's not great, either, with legacy Vegas properties suffering as stiff competition from fresher brands eats into their performance.
But Stifel analyst Steven M. Wieczynski maintains a Buy rating on the stock. "With CZR, you get what we believe is the best management team in gaming and a company that should produce significant free cash flow in any normalized environment," he writes in a May 15 note to clients.
Wieczynski has a $42 price target on Caesers – 47% above current levels – but feels shares "could expand well beyond that, provided additional shocks to the global macro-economy are somewhat limited in scale and scope."
Nevertheless, investors should remain on high alert given that CZR is one of the riskiest S&P 500 stocks right now.
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