A new black gold rush is under way, this time in North Dakota. The potential payoff is huge -- up to 100 billion barrels of oil. That’s twice the size of Alaska’s reserves and potentially enough to meet all U.S. oil needs for two decades.
Until now, the obstacles to production seemed overwhelming. The crude oil is locked away in rocks that are buried miles underground in the Bakken Play, a field that stretches into Montana and Saskatchewan, Canada.
But times have changed. High oil prices and new technology make it worth the effort. Computer analysis and remote sensing systems, plus smart drills that can probe horizontally or snake left and right, vastly improve the odds of locating new pools and
putting them into production. And though oil is unlikely to remain priced at current stratospheric levels, prices won’t drop to much lower levels, which happened several times since the 1970s, and cause new exploration to dry up. Even if prices fell by half, many barrels of oil could still be produced -- profitably -- from the region.
An official government survey of the Bakken region's oil treasure trove is due out next month. The report is expected to play it very conservatively, because it will confine estimates to the amount of oil that likely can be produced profitably based on last year’s oil prices. It will also not take into account any further technological advances that might make it even easier to extract more oil.
"The Bakken is much like the enormous natural gas field that sat for many years under and around Dallas until people figured out the geology and how to drill it out economically," says Lucian Pugliaresi, president of the Energy Policy Research Foundation.
There's at least a smell of the "Old West" as petroleum companies rush to stake their claims in the Bakken Play. Marathon Oil recently acquired about 200,000 acres in the area and will drill about 300 oil wells within five years. Brigham Exploration and Crescent Point Energy Trust are also interested in some of the action. EOG Resources alone figures it can produce 80 million barrels of oil from its Bakken field.
Figure on at least five years before the oil starts flowing in large volumes. A lot of work will need to be done first. In addition to installing drilling gear, firms must build supporting infrastructure, including roads, pipelines as well as new water, sewage and sanitation systems to meet the needs of workers and other area residents.
Note that the Bakken Play region is not an environmentally sensitive area similar to Alaskan tundra that has stymied much oil field development because of concerns about damage to the fragile environment. Still, some environmental protests are sure to emerge and may gum up development for a while, but they’re unlikely to stop oil production from the Bakken fields.
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POSTED BY: David Muhlbaum (June 10, 2008 10:04 AM)
Hi, David Muhlbaum, Web Editor for the Kiplinger Business Resource Center here. You can see the report from the USGS here (you'll probably need to copy and paste the url into your browser.):
www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911
POSTED BY: Solution (June 11, 2008 11:40 AM)
I'd like to see Kiplinger put together an analysis of what 1 million barrel of oil would mean for a us producer. Compare what sending a deflated $1 to foreign oil vs. that same $1 remaining in the US. Taxes, employment, investment, local revenues, housing, national security, etc. I bet the information would be eye-opening.
POSTED BY: Jim Ostroff (June 11, 2008 05:00 PM)
Kiplinger doesn't take sides on issues, but we do strive to incite people to think. This article surely has done that!
Since its publication, the U.S. Geological Survey released a report estimating there's up to 4.3 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the Bakken Formation. However, this was based on technology and oil prices in place during 2007. Still, this is a 25-fold increase over the USGS's 1995 study that concluded 151 million bbls. could be produced. It's very likely that the 2007 estimate will prove to be way too low, given continuing, rapid advancements in oil recovery technologies. This oil field will be developed over the next 10 to 20 years. There are no "killer" federal regs. that would prevent this.
An observation: During the past 30 years federal and state lawmakers have clashed repeatedly on the oil/natural gas versus renewables issue. As a result, vast areas in the U.S. and offshore that likely contain enough fossil fuels to boost domestic supplies for decades are off limits. At the same time, critical supports to help grow wind, solar, non-oil fuels and geothermal energy production remain meager and are doled out in a way that curtails much-needed private investment.
In the intervening years, the U.S.'s reliance on imported oil and natural gas has grown. The ability of the nation's power grid to handle growing electricity demand is breaking down in some areas, even with massive, utility-led conservation programs. In the spirit of inciting people to think: I submit that our nation's energy posture will become more precarious until federal and state lawmakers enact policies that permit and encourage the development of both fossil fuels and alternative energy sources, require more energy efficiency -- all without cutting corners on air/water pollution controls.