The 2010 Census: A Gift for the GOP?
It's a hard time right now for the Republicans. But population trends may restore their edge in a few years.
By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter
September 14, 2007
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Republicans may have a long-term ace in their pocket. Despite recent election setbacks for the GOP, they are poised to regain ground when it comes to gaining seats after the next national Census.
The 2010 Census is likely to lead to more congressional districts for many states that have been Republican-friendly in recent elections. Changes in House apportionment will be made before the 2012 elections.
Texas will come away with the big prize, adding four new House seats. Georgia will probably gain one more, and Florida will add two. Republicans have recently dominated these states’ legislatures. If that holds true in the next few years, as we expect, the GOP will have a large hand in drawing the lines of new districts, giving the party a renewed advantage.
The Census will also highlight the westward population shift that has resulted from both migration between the states and immigration from other countries. Confirmation of this in the Census will redirect more federal money toward western states for highways, education, and other uses. In addition, five western states -- Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Utah and Arizona -- will each get at least one new congressional district.
California, for the first time since gaining statehood in 1850, won’t pick up any new seats, a result largely of a leveling off in migration to the state and also due to scores of state residents and recent retirees moving to other parts of the southwest.
Several states will lose House seats, possibly hurting Democrats as legislatures and courts decide new lines for a smaller delegation. The states that will see these changes include Louisiana (mainly due to population displacement from Hurricane Katrina), Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York. Each will lose one seat, except for Ohio and New York, each of which will lose two. Also on the list of states to watch are Massachusetts and New Jersey. Both are in danger of losing a seat if population losses are not stemmed in the next two years.
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Reader Comments (4)
Posted by: billy at 09/14/2007 03:44:06 PM
here we go again with wrongheaded analysis. the "red" states are gaining seats because of mexican immigration so you can expect those new seats to go dem. stop misleading people with brainless analysis.
Posted by: K at 09/14/2007 04:23:39 PM
This article seems to assume that the new population in Texas, for example, will vote with the existing populace. Immigrants or citizens moving to a new state do not necessarily vote with the existing populace. For example, a huge migration of people from a largely democratic-leaning demographic may cause Texas to shift towards the Democrats rather than towards the Republicans. If the balance is already close e.g. 49-51 adding new people biased differently may tip the scale. If the balance is 10-90, no effect will be felt from the addition. Shallow research?
Posted by: richard at 09/17/2007 01:27:35 PM
Hi folks. Richard Sammon from Kiplinger. Regarding your comments, keep in mind illegal immigrants don't participate in the Census and rarely vote, despite claims to the opposite. Certainly smoe do, but the vast majority don't. -- Richard.
Posted by: Rogue7 at 12/15/2007 03:33:50 PM
Immigration is part of it. So is the fact that people in the red states have more children than people in the blue states. And all that immigration is spreading throughout heavily Republican areas and states...which may make them a little less Republican, but Republican, nonetheless. All four Texas seats will go Republican. So will at least 5 of the remaining 7 seats in flux. Wait and see.