What to Look Out for in Economic Data This Week (June 29-July 3)
It's another holiday-shortened week heavy with incoming economic data and notable for an appearance by new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
Thursday's release of the June jobs report comes a day earlier than usual because the U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Friday in observance of the Fourth of July on Saturday.
We'll see whether it makes more highlights than Warsh's participation on Wednesday in a panel discussion at a European Central Bank symposium.
Following better-than-expected but still-hot May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data, markets still expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady as inflation settles down.
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Economic reports we're watching
Wednesday, July 1: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks: Fed Chair Warsh makes his second appearance on the economic calendar when he talks in Portugal about Europe at 9:30 am Eastern Standard Time.
Thursday, July 2: Nonfarm payrolls report: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the employment situation report for June a day early. The consensus forecast is that 172,000 new jobs were created last month.
Read on to see the entire weekly economic calendar of the most important upcoming economic reports scheduled to be released in the next several days. At times, we provide expanded previews and recaps for select reports.
Please check back often. This economic calendar is updated regularly. Bolded reports are those considered more noteworthy. All reporting times are in Eastern Time.
Monday (6/29)
There are no noteworthy economic reports scheduled for release on Monday, June 29.
Tuesday (6/30)
Time released | Economic report | Period |
9 am | S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index | April |
9:45 am | Chicago Business Barometer | June |
10 am | The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index | June |
10 am | Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) | May |
Wednesday (7/1)
Kevin Warsh speaks
There's no question that new Fed Chair Warsh faces a difficult task in the current environment, as well as relative to old Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, who passed away last week at 100 and whose shadow lingers on the global economy.
The present problem is that President Donald Trump wants him to trim the target range for the federal funds rate. But last year's tariffs and this year's war are still putting a lot of upward pressure on both consumer and producer prices.
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At the same time (and for the time being), PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge over the Consumer Price Index (CPI). And the most recent numbers are trending in the right direction.
The symposium in Sintra, Portugal, is set for discussion of "shaping Europe's future: innovation, growth and stability." So we'll see how much about his plans for "regime change" the new Fed chair reveals.
The appearance is notable also in light of Warsh's oft-expressed desire for central bankers to say less about their business in public. Indeed, though, it's an essential part of the job in the modern age.
Time released | Economic report | Period |
8:15 am | ADP National Employment Report | June |
9:30 am | Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks | N/A |
9:45 am | S&P Global Final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) | June |
10 am | Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI | June |
10 am | Construction spending | May |
Thursday (7/2)
It's Jobs Thursday
"We estimate that nonfarm payroll employment grew 100k in June," Barclays Chief U.S. Economist Marc Giannoni writes in his preview of the June nonfarm payrolls report.
Giannoni notes "sharp gains" of 179,000 in April and 172,000 in the May jobs report, and his headline forecast for June would pencil out to a three-month moving average during the second quarter of 150,000-plus.
That would mark a sharp acceleration from the 73,000 average during the first quarter. According to Giannoni, it's also "seemingly consistent with a tightening labor market."
Still, the economist expects the Federal Open Market Committee "to remain mindful of inconsistencies with the household survey, where we expect another flat reading for the unemployment rate (at 4.3%) to downplay these tightening signals."
Altogether, a 100,000 print plus a 4.3% jobless rate "would remain consistent with another FOMC hold in July as it continues to assess evidence about whether tightening would be appropriate."
Time released | Economic report | Period |
8:30 am | Nonfarm payrolls report | June |
8:30 am | Weekly jobless claims | Week ending June 27 |
10 am | Factory orders | May |
Friday (7/3)
The stock and bond markets in the U.S. are closed on Friday, July 3, to observe the Fourth of July holiday.
There are no economic reports scheduled for release.
Reporting schedules are provided Forex Factory and MarketWatch.
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