What to Look Out for in Economic Data This Week (April 27-May 1)

Jerome Powell will take the lead for what is presumably his final FOMC meeting and press conference as Fed chair this week.

Powell's term is scheduled to end on May 15, and the confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's nominee to succeed him, is now underway.

On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for March.

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Economic reports we're watching

Wednesday, April 29: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy statement and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's press conference: The market expects the central bank to hold the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%.

Thursday, April 30: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) and Core PCE: We'll see when Warsh is confirmed, and then we'll see if the "regime change" he plans includes a shift away from what is, for now, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.

Read on to see the entire weekly economic calendar of the most important upcoming economic reports scheduled to be released in the next several days. At times, we provide expanded previews and recaps for select reports.

Please check back often. This economic calendar is updated regularly. Bolded reports are those considered more noteworthy. All reporting times are in Eastern Time.

Monday (4/27)

There are no noteworthy economic reports scheduled for release on Monday, April 27.

Tuesday (4/28)

Wednesday (4/29)

So long, Mr. Powell

Jerome Powell's last FOMC meeting as Fed chair opens on Tuesday and closes on Wednesday. CME FedWatch shows a 99.0% probability the central bank holds interest rates, and Powell pretty much holds his tongue.

The timeline for Warsh's confirmation is becoming clearer after U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro directed her office to close an investigation of Powell and the Fed for cost overruns on a project to renovate its historic buildings in Washington D.C. is unresolved.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) said he'd withhold his "yes" vote on Warsh. Powell said he'd stay on the Fed board until the DOJ matter concludes.

Tillis, whose own audit of the project's costs suggests there's no fleecing of taxpayers happening, supported a plan to form a Congressional committee to take over the investigation from the DOJ. Pirro has referred the matter to the Fed's inspector general.

Thursday (4/30)

Wartime PCE

Based on March Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, Barclays economist Pooja Sriram says core PCE for March will rise 0.28% or 0.24% on a month-over-month basis, the variance based on a statistical choice left up to the BEA.

Sriram saw core PCE at 0.27% after an initial post-CPI forecast. "Uncertainty hinges on the legal services deflator," Sriram explains. "Using the weaker CPI instead of the PPI would pull core PCE closer to 0.24%." Year-over-year core PCE translates to 3.1% in the stronger translation.

"March PPI data were softer than expected, at both the headline and core levels," the economist writes. Energy prices surged 8.5% month over month, but core goods and services prices lagged forecasts.

"We think it is too early to expect core measures of PPI to show imprints of higher energy prices," Sriram observes, "though transportation services costs did increase, which could plausibly be attributed to higher fuel costs."

Friday (5/1)

There are no noteworthy economic reports scheduled for release on Friday, May 1.

Reporting schedules are provided Forex Factory and MarketWatch.

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