David Payne
Staff Economist, The Kiplinger Letter
David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Kiplinger's Economic Outlooks
Economic Forecasts
Kiplinger's Economic Outlooks
Regularly updated insights on the economy’s next moves.
July 20, 2021
What Is the Social Security COLA?
retirement
What Is the Social Security COLA?
For the average recipient, the 2021 monthly increase doesn't even cover a fill-up at the gas station — but it beats nothing.
July 14, 2021
Social Security Benefits COLA Likely to Be Largest in Decades
social security
Social Security Benefits COLA Likely to Be Largest in Decades
The increase in the cost-of-living-adjustment is expected to be driven by a rebound in consumer spending and higher prices for cars, airfare and gasol…
July 14, 2021
Updated Exclusive Social Security Benefits Forecast: COLA Likely to Jump to 4.5% in 2022
Economic Forecasts
Updated Exclusive Social Security Benefits Forecast: COLA Likely to Jump to 4.5% in 2022
This would be the largest cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security benefits since 2008.
May 12, 2021
Exclusive Social Security Benefits Forecast: COLA Likely to Jump to 3% in 2022
Financial Planning
Exclusive Social Security Benefits Forecast: COLA Likely to Jump to 3% in 2022
The cost of living adjustment would be fueled by rising gas prices and the recently passed stimulus package that could spur additional consumer spendi…
March 10, 2021
Federal Debt: A Heavy Load
Economic Forecasts
Federal Debt: A Heavy Load
The debt continues to grow, but record-low interest rates could ease the long-term damage.
December 22, 2020
How the Fed's Moves Affect You
Economic Forecasts
How the Fed's Moves Affect You
It’s pumping trillions of dollars into the economy and keeping rates near zero. Savers are sunk, but borrowers get a boost.
July 2, 2020
No Social Security COLA Increase Likely for 2021
social security
No Social Security COLA Increase Likely for 2021
Retirees and others should temper hopes of a cost-of-living increase for 2021, and the effect might last even longer.
May 15, 2020
10 States Most Unprepared for This Deep Recession
Economic Forecasts
10 States Most Unprepared for This Deep Recession
Most state budgets are in better shape now than they were before the last recession, thanks to steady growth in employment and the resulting rise in t…
April 15, 2020
Coronavirus Drugs Already in the Pipeline
investing
Coronavirus Drugs Already in the Pipeline
It's not just chloroquine. Other existing medicines are being brought to bear against COVID-19. We look at what drugs have promise against COVID-19, a…
March 27, 2020
How Hard Will Coronavirus Hit U.S., Global Economies?
business
How Hard Will Coronavirus Hit U.S., Global Economies?
COVID-19 poses serious risk of economic damage, possibly even a recession, even as its health impacts will be limited.
March 26, 2020
10 Products in Short Supply Due to the Coronavirus
business
10 Products in Short Supply Due to the Coronavirus
Certain consumer goods are getting scarce, and we don't just mean hand sanitizer and toilet paper.
March 26, 2020
U.S. Manufacturing Is Already Ailing from Coronavirus
Economic Forecasts
U.S. Manufacturing Is Already Ailing from Coronavirus
Supplies are hard to come by, and in the longer-term demand may be at risk.
March 9, 2020
Consumers Will Feel Impact of Rapidly Falling Interest Rates
interest rates
Consumers Will Feel Impact of Rapidly Falling Interest Rates
Mortgage and car loans will experience the most significant dips, while some holders of Treasuries may get a slight boost.
March 7, 2020
10 States With the Slowest Rates of Job Growth, 2020
business
10 States With the Slowest Rates of Job Growth, 2020
U.S.
October 17, 2019
10 States With the Fastest Rates of Job Growth, 2020
business
10 States With the Fastest Rates of Job Growth, 2020
U.S.
October 17, 2019
Kiplinger’s Economic Outlook for All 50 States, 2020
economy
Kiplinger’s Economic Outlook for All 50 States, 2020
Low jobless rates and rising incomes are helping to fatten state coffers across the U.S.
October 16, 2019
What Is the Social Security COLA for 2020?
social security
What Is the Social Security COLA for 2020?
It's official: Social Security benefits will rise 1.6% next year, confirming Kiplinger's forecast for the cost-of-living adjustment.
October 10, 2019
Is a Recession Imminent?
recession
Is a Recession Imminent?
Shoppers will have to carry the load for now because weak business investment shows no sign of perking up anytime soon. Odds are, they’ll be able to.
August 26, 2019
Falling Stocks Can Ding the Economy
Economic Forecasts
Falling Stocks Can Ding the Economy
Market corrections cause consumers to keep a tighter grip on their wallets
January 3, 2019
Kiplinger's Economic Outlook for All 50 States, 2018
Your Business
Kiplinger's Economic Outlook for All 50 States, 2018
August 17, 2018
10 States With the Fastest Rate of Job Growth, 2018
business
10 States With the Fastest Rate of Job Growth, 2018
The U.S.
August 9, 2018
15 Satellite Cities Poised to Thrive in 2018
business
15 Satellite Cities Poised to Thrive in 2018
Job seekers often overlook the small and medium cities located near or in-between the big hubs.
June 27, 2018
Will You Have to Pay More Sales Taxes on Your Online Purchases?
business
Will You Have to Pay More Sales Taxes on Your Online Purchases?
One thing’s for sure: Consumers who live in one of the five states without a sales tax won’t be affected by the Supreme Court’s ruling.
June 21, 2018
3 Factors That Could Drive the Next Recession
recession
3 Factors That Could Drive the Next Recession
The economy is humming along nicely, but how long can the good times continue?
June 12, 2018
10 States With the Fastest Job Growth in 2016
business
10 States With the Fastest Job Growth in 2016
Looking for a job?
November 4, 2016
A Housing Shortage Looms: Builders Can’t Keep Up
business
A Housing Shortage Looms: Builders Can’t Keep Up
Starter homes especially are becoming scarce.
September 20, 2016