Stock Market Today: Stocks Fall After Hawkish Fed Minutes

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Stocks were slow to get off the mat Wednesday as market participants sifted through several earnings reports from major retailers and looked ahead to tonight's quarterly results from AI giant Nvidia (NVDA).

Not helping matters was a hawkish tone in the minutes from the Federal Reserve's May policy meeting, which kept pressure on stocks through the close.

Starting with today's earnings news. Target (TGT, -8.0%) captured most of the attention after its first-quarter earnings fell short of estimates. The retailer also posted its fourth straight quarter of declining same-store sales as consumers bought fewer home goods and hardlines (i.e., consumer electronics and toys).

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Still, BofA Securities analyst Robert Ohmes maintained a Buy rating on the consumer discretionary stock after earnings.

"While near-term sales remain pressured, we believe TGT's focus on value positions it well for share gains going forward," Ohmes says. "Recently announced price investments, changes to the Target Circle 360 rewards program, and several new Owned Brand launches focused on value and entry-level price points should support an improving value perception."

TJX pops on strong earnings

Marshalls parent TJX (TJX) was another big post-earnings mover; its share price surged 3.5% after the off-price retailer's beat-and-raise quarter. The company's strong results were driven by impressive same-store sales growth in the U.S. across all its brands, including TJ Maxx and HomeGoods.

"TJX continues to thrive in a challenging retail environment, boasting strong same-store sales growth," says Shams Afzal, managing director and portfolio manager for Carnegie Investment Counsel. "The concept of 'treasure hunt' where consumers discover branded products at great value, remains quite appealing in the current environment."

Nvidia slips ahead of earnings

While retail earnings captured investors' attention today, most folks had one eye trained on Nvidia before its after-the-close announcement. The semiconductor stock fell 0.5% ahead of its first-quarter results but remains 92% higher this year.

If Nvidia "can continue their enviable, remarkable string of beating estimates, raising guidance, then beating the raised guidance next quarter, that means that the AI trade can and will proceed apace," says Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. But if there is the slightest sign of weakness, "much more than that stock alone will suffer," he adds.

CFRA says 3M stock is now a Buy

As for the main indexes, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.2% to 16,801 and the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 5,307. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.5% to 39,671 amid weakness in Dow (DOW, -2.2%) and Goldman Sachs (GS, -1.7%).

3M (MMM) was another one of the worst-performing Dow Jones stocks today, falling 1.6%. The Post-It maker is still up nearly 11% for the year to date after its recently announced dividend cut wasn't as bad as many feared.

The company's improving risk profile and cost-cutting measures prompted CFRA Research analyst Jonathan Sakraida to upgrade 3M stock on Tuesday to Buy from Hold.

"We see a meaningful turnaround being more achievable amid a more lean and nimble 3M," Sakraida wrote in a note. "We're encouraged by recent progress on margins as 3M focuses on improving profitability amid a mixed demand environment."

Fed members split on pace of balance-sheet runoff

On the economic front, the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's May meeting was the main event for investors today. Earlier this month, the central bank kept interest rates at a 23-year high and said it was reducing the pace at which it shrinks its portfolio of Treasury bonds by $35 billion a month.

"A few participants indicated that they could have supported a continuation of the current pace of balance sheet runoff at this time or a slightly higher redemption cap on Treasury securities than was decided upon," the minutes stated.

As for inflation, the minutes confirmed what market participants already know, that it remains "more persistent than previously expected." And as a result, "policy expectations [have] shifted materially" in response.

"Normally the Fed is more important than anything else in the market, but because they've taken themselves out of the conversation, it will now fall to Nvidia earnings this afternoon to dictate which way the market goes from here," says Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance.

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With over a decade of experience writing about the stock market, Karee Venema is the senior investing editor at Kiplinger.com. She joined the publication in April 2021 after 10 years of working as an investing writer and columnist at a local investment research firm. In her previous role, Karee focused primarily on options trading, as well as technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis.