Stock Market Today: Rally Pauses for "Real End" to War

stock candles and missiles — (Image credit: Getty Images)

President Donald Trump took to Truth Social early Tuesday morning to clarify that he did not leave the G-7 summit early to work on a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, auguring a gap down for the major equity indexes at the opening bell.

Fair to middling incoming economic data did little to change the short-term trend and will do nothing to alter the Federal Reserve's present course, with mixed messages from "soft" surveys and "hard" sources reflecting near-universal uncertainty about tariffs and their impact on inflation.

Monetary policymakers have convened, the next Fed meeting is underway and markets expect, with a 99.9% certainty, the FOMC will hold the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50% come Wednesday at 2 pm ET.

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We continue to track news and developments related to the FOMC meeting on our live Fed blog.

President Trump told reporters later Tuesday that he wants a "real end" to the conflict between Israel and Iran – which means a resolution of the nuclear negotiations with the Islamic Republic and a permanent end to its ambitions for a fission weapon.

"Iran should have signed the 'deal' I told them to sign," Trump posted. "What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!"

Channeling Ulysses S. Grant and Franklin D. Roosevelt, shortly after noon, the president signaled his willingness to engage in an extended and perhaps expanded mission.

"UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER," he posted, and investors, traders and speculators accelerated their selling.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) spiked as high as 20.99 ahead of Tuesday's open from 19.11 as of Monday's close and then surged to 21.79 late in the trading day, the "fear gauge" breaching its "normal" range of 12 to 20.

Expectations game

Cooling CPI… cooling PCE… softening retail sales… softening industrial production… and yet the rate-cut watch goes on. According to Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal, firm-for-now policy interest rates are about inflation expectations.

"Officials are worried over how tariff announcements since March could disrupt what economists refer to as 'inflation expectations'," Timiraos writes.

What consumers and businesses think inflation will be in the future "can't be seen or touched" and are therefore "very tricky to measure," but also "very important" to Powell and his fellow policymakers.

The Census Bureau said retail sales declined by 0.9% in May vs a FactSet-compiled consensus expectation for a 0.7% slide. A 0.1% gain in April was revised downward to a 0.1% decline.

The Federal Reserve Board reported a 0.2% decline in industrial production in May against expectations for no change following a 0.1% rise during April.

"The Fed will hold its nose on the weak retail sales and industrial production data," writes BMO Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist Scott Anderson. Powell and the FOMC will "keep rates unchanged this week as it continues to gauge the inflationary and growth implications of the administration's tariff policies."

By the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had shed 0.7% to 42,215, the S&P 500 was down 0.8% at 5,982, and the Nasdaq Composite had lost 0.9% to 19,521.

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That hasn't stopped the front-month gold futures contract from rising 29% year to date through Monday amid historic volatility spikes to the upside and the downside, as well as still-mushrooming global uncertainty.

Gold traded lower Tuesday but bounced off its intraday low as President Trump once more took to social media to conduct foreign policy and define military strategy.

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David Dittman is the former managing editor and chief investment strategist of Utility Forecaster, which was named one of "10 investment newsletters to read besides Buffett's" in 2015. A graduate of the University of California, San Diego, and the Villanova University School of Law, and a former stockbroker, David has been working in financial media for more than 20 years.