Democrats Likely to Win Bigger House Majority in 2008

Democrats would have to make several major fumbles to blow a chance to increase their numbers in the House.

By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

November 15, 2007

Expect to see more Democrats in the House after the 2008 elections. Democratic gains are a very good bet, thanks to a combination of factors ranging from circumstances to issues to money. A lot can change in a year, but at this point, Republicans face a distinct uphill battle.

The numbers certainly work in Democrats' favor. They control the chamber, with 233 seats to 200 for Republicans, with two vacant seats that had been held by Republicans. Democrats have kept retirements, which create more competitive, open-seat races, to a minimum -- currently at three, compared with 14 (with maybe a dozen more to come) for Republicans. And of the 14 GOP retirees, six represent districts that Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) won in the 2004 presidential race. Democrats also lead Republicans in overall fundraising by about 4 to 3, a stark reversal from past election cycles.

If the trend continues and history is any guide, there will be fewer than three dozen truly competitive races in 2008, and Republicans will have to win about three-quarters just to stay even -- an unlikely outcome.

National themes also lean in Democrats' favor, at least according to recent polls. A large majority of Americans see the country as being on the wrong track in general, are unhappy over the long and costly military missions in Iraq and Afghanistan and have little confidence left in President Bush. Plus there is rising concern over environmental and climate change issues, a perception of a widening gap between haves and have-nots and worries about health care. On most of these issues, voters say they think Democrats will do a better job than Republicans. While national security and military preparedness will be an issue, it is no longer the big GOP advantage it used to be.

But the news isn't all bad for Republicans. They could gain from public discontent over a largely gridlocked Congress. Democrats have few legislative accomplishments to show, and voters are becoming increasingly frustrated. However, Republicans score even lower than Democrats in polls involving Congress.

Republicans may also gain if sentiment against illegal immigration pours into campaigns for House seats where some Democrats supporting a guest worker program could be vulnerable.

Finally, Republicans may, ironically enough, benefit some from the big Democratic victories in 2006. Democrats gained 30 seats in the last midterm election, and they have 61 seats representing districts that voted for Bush in 2004. Several will be in play in 2008, and a couple should be easy pickoffs, such as those lost in 2006 because of scandal. One likely to be won back is the Florida seat of former Rep. Mark Foley, who got embroiled in a scandal involving congressional pages. That's a heavily Republican district.

Among hot races to watch:

• Arizona's 1st District, where Rep. Rick Renzi (R) is retiring, is shaping up as a contest between former state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) and state Sen. Tom O'Halleran (R).

• New Mexico's 1st District, where Rep. Heather Wilson (R) is vacating her seat to run for the Senate, may come down to a race between former U.S. Army Secretary Louis Caldera (D) and state Sen. Mark Boitano (R).

• Illinois' 8th District looks to feature a close race between Rep. Melissa Bean (D) and businessman Steve Greenberg.

• California's 4th District will find GOP Rep. John Doolittle facing likely Democratic nominee Charlie Brown, a retired lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Air Force.

• Georgia's 8th District will probably see Rep. Jim Marshall (D) facing former Rep. Mac Collins (R).

• Ohio's 16th District, where GOP Rep. Ralph Regula is retiring, is likely to feature a tight race between two state senators: John Boccieri (D) and Kirk Schuring (R).

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