The main U.S. equity indexes opened mixed and drifted lower Friday amid a continuing pressure campaign on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and central bank independence. Sentiment is shifting, however, and earnings remain solid.
A lively Friday on the economic calendar featured preliminary results for July from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumer Sentiment as well as key homebuilder data.
People are feeling better but remain concerned about the economy and inflation, and construction is still fair to middling.
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The headline Index of Consumer Sentiment inched up to 61.8 from 60.7 in June to its highest level in five months. "It remains a substantial 16% below December 2024," notes survey director Joanne Hsu, "and is well below its historical average."
One-year-ahead inflation expectations declined for a second straight month, from 5.0% in June to 4.4% in July. Five-year inflation expectations fell for the third straight month, from 4.0% to 3.6%.
Both short- and long-term inflation expectations are the lowest they've been since February but remain above December levels.
And the Census Bureau said housing starts increased at a better-than-forecast month-over-month pace of 4.6% to an annual rate of 1.321 million in June. Starts were down 0.5% year over year.
Building permits ticked up 0.2% month over month but were down 4.4% year over year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.3% to close the week at 44,342 – still just 1.5% from a new all-time closing high.
The S&P 500 was down less than a point to 6,296, and the Nasdaq Composite eked out a 10-point gain to 20,895. Both indexes remain at or near new highs.
Waller says it's time to cut rates
Meanwhile, feelings about rate cuts are also changing. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, identified as a potential successor should President Trump fire Chair Powell, said in remarks prepared for delivery Thursday that the central bank should cut its target range for the federal funds rate at the next Fed meeting.
"With inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited," Waller said, "we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate." Waller concluded that "it makes sense" to trim the fed funds rate by 25 basis points "two weeks from now."
The quiet period for the next Fed meeting begins tomorrow and ends on Thursday, July 31. Fed staff and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants will generally refrain from speaking publicly or giving interviews during this time.
The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 29-30.
Fed funds futures reflect a 95.3% probability the FOMC will maintain a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%, down from 95.9% Thursday. The probability of a cut in September increased from 53.9% Thursday to 60.6% Friday.
Crypto is a $4 trillion market too
Not only did Nvidia (NVDA) become the first publicly traded company to cross the $4 trillion market capitalization barrier this week.
The total value of the cryptocurrency market exceeded $4 trillion too. Bitcoin traded at a 24-hour high of $120,689. The world's No. 1 cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high Monday above $123,000.
Cryptocurrency exchange operator Coinbase Global (COIN) hit a new all-time high too and closed up 2.2%.
COIN is a top holding in some of the best bitcoin ETFs to buy for efficient exposure to a rapidly expanding but still relatively small asset class.
The leader of the AI revolution ended the day down 0.3% but still managed to make a new intraday high. NVDA stock is now up 27.9% since its fiscal 2026 first-quarter earnings report.
Netflix and 3M beat, raise and gap down
Both Netflix (NFLX), which reported late Thursday, and 3M (MMM), which reported early Friday, beat expectations for their respective quarters, raised guidance for the full year and gapped down at the opening bell.
NFLX – perhaps one of the next stocks to split – ended the day down 5.1%. MMM was No. 30 among the 30 Dow Jones stocks after sliding 3.6%.
"Our business continues to perform well," Netflix stated in its second-quarter letter to shareholders, noting 16% revenue growth and operating margin expansion from 27% to 34%.
Revenue as well as operating income were slightly above guidance, and management raised its full-year revenue forecast to $44.8 billion to $45.2 billion and its operating margin forecast to 29.5% from 29%.
3M reported 1.4% sales growth and raised its full-year guidance for earnings to $7.75 to $8.00 from $7.60 to $7.90. Notably, updated guidance reflects the impact of Trump's tariffs.
"We delivered strong results in the second quarter, posting positive organic sales growth and double-digit EPS growth," CEO William Brown said, citing healthy trends "with all three business groups growing organically for the third quarter in a row."
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