An encouraging reading on inflation lit a fire under stocks Thursday, with all three indexes closing solidly higher. Another sign that the labor market is starting to soften only created bigger tailwinds for stocks, while quarterly results from Delta Air Lines (DAL) gave investors a sneak peak into Q1 earnings season.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said this morning that its producer price index (PPI), which measures what businesses are charging suppliers for goods, fell 0.5% month-over-month in March. Not only did this beat expectations for a flat reading, but it was the biggest decline since April 2020.
This follows yesterday's mixed consumer price index (CPI) report. While the headline March CPI moderated sharply from February, core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices and is often a better indicator of future inflation, came in higher than the month before.
From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance
Be a smarter, better informed investor.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Still, signs continue to show that the Federal Reserve's efforts to cool inflation by slowing the economy are working. In addition to this morning's PPI, data from the Labor Department showed that the number of individuals applying for unemployment insurance rose by 11,000 last week to 239,000. While this is certainly not an earth-shattering figure, it is the highest level since mid-January 2022, and does point to weakening in a stubbornly tight labor market.
"Today's inflation readings showed a little bit more softness as supplier prices fell 0.5% in March, well below the consensus of a flat reading and the biggest drop in since the start of the pandemic," says Edward Moya, senior market strategist at currency data provider OANDA, adding that labor market weakness will need to pick up in order for this disinflationary trend to continue. Still, "bad news is once again good news for stocks," Moya says.
Indeed, nine of the 11 sectors finished higher today, led by consumer discretionary (+2.2%) and communication services stocks (+2.1%). On the flip side, real estate (-0.3%) and utility stocks (+0.01%) – two of the typically "safer" sectors – lagged.
As for the major indexes, the Nasdaq Composite popped 2.0% to 12,166, the S&P 500 climbed 1.3% to 4,146, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.1% to 34,029.
Delta earnings
Another headline today: Delta Air Lines earnings. The air carrier is one of the early reporters of first-quarter earnings, unveiling its results ahead of today's open.
For the three-month period, Delta swung to a profit of 25 cents per share, though this fell short of analysts' consensus estimate. Revenue, however, jumped 36.5% to $12.8 billion to beat expectations, and the company gave strong current-quarter guidance thanks to "record advance bookings," said Delta CEO Ed Bastian in the earnings call.
After being higher in pre-market trading, the industrial stock finished the session down 1.1%.
A top financial stock pick ahead of earnings
Next up on the earnings calendar are big banks, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) among those reporting tomorrow morning.
"Investors are counting on strong earnings to help the year-to-date stock market rally continue, which is why this upcoming first-quarter earnings season is so important," says David Trainer, CEO of Nashville-based investment research firm New Constructs. Bank earnings typically set the stage for the rest of earnings season, he adds, and commentary from bank CEOs will help investors gauge the probability of an upcoming recession.
As for the best stocks to buy in the financial sector, Trainer taps JPM as a "favorite," saying "the company stands to gain regardless of how the recent crisis of confidence in the banking sector plays out." And if more regional banks collapse, JPMorgan is "likely to attract more assets."
-
Think Twice Before Getting a Credit Card Cash AdvanceA credit card cash advance can be a quick solution when you need emergency help with money. But you'll pay for the convenience with high interest and fees.
-
What is AI Worth to the Economy?The Letter Spending on AI is already boosting GDP, but will the massive outlays being poured into the technology deliver faster economic growth in the long run?
-
If You'd Put $1,000 Into UnitedHealth Group Stock 20 Years Ago, Here's What You'd Have TodayUNH stock was a massive market beater for ages – until it wasn't.
-
What Tariffs Mean for Your Sector ExposureNew, higher and changing tariffs will ripple through the economy and into share prices for many quarters to come.
-
How to Invest for a Fall Interest Rate Cut by the FedA lot can happen between now and then, but the probability the Fed cuts interest rates in September is back above 80%.
-
Stocks Are Up and Down on Fed Day: Stock Market TodayIn another sign of changing times, JPMorgan has partnered with Coinbase to enable cryptocurrency purchases with credit cards.
-
What CEOs Say About President Trump and Fed Chair PowellTop opinion-shapers and decision-makers are expressing mixed views on the evolving conflict between the White House and the central bank.
-
Are Buffett and Berkshire About to Bail on Kraft Heinz Stock?Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway own a lot of Kraft Heinz stock, so what happens when they decide to sell KHC?
-
How the Stock Market Performed in the First 6 Months of Trump's Second TermSix months after President Donald Trump's inauguration, take a look at how the stock market has performed.
-
If You'd Put $1,000 Into Berkshire Hathaway Stock 20 Years Ago, Here's What You'd Have TodayBerkshire Hathaway is a long-time market beater, but the easy money in BRK.B has already been made.
