The main U.S. equity indexes opened up and trended higher through the last trading session before a badgered and beleaguered Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its August jobs report before Friday's opening bell.
Investors, traders and speculators looked beyond a couple of disappointing earnings reports from high-profile software makers and instead turned to incoming economic data.
"Tomorrow's jobs report will be the deciding factor," notes E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley Managing Director Chris Larkin, "but so far this week the data is confirming a slowdown in the labor market."
From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance
Be a smarter, better informed investor.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Larkin says "markets may embrace that data" in the short term "because it should increase the odds of Fed rate cuts." At the same time, he adds, "If the numbers deteriorate too much, it could raise concerns about the health of the economy."
Meanwhile, with the trajectory of interest rates and the impact of tariffs on inflation still uncertain ahead of the next Fed meeting, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note dipped to 3.586% compared to 3.612% as of Wednesday's closing bell. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond ticked down to 4.856% vs 4.892%.
Gold futures traded as high as $3,621.60 today, up from $3,593.20 as of Wednesday, and were trading near all-time highs above $3,600 late Thursday. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 98.29 from 98.14.
The highlight of this week's economic calendar, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Employment Situation Summary for August tomorrow at 8:30 am Eastern Standard Time.
At Thursday's closing bell, the broad-based S&P 500 was up 0.8% to a new all-time closing high of 6,502.
The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 0.8% to 45,621, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 1.0% to 21,707.
Countdown to Jobs Friday
According to FactSet, the median estimate for August nonfarm payrolls is 80,000, up from 73,000 in July. As FactSet Senior Earnings Analyst John Butters observes, "If 80,000 is the actual increase in nonfarm payrolls, it will mark an increase relative to the previous month. However, it will also be below the trailing 12-month average of 128,000."
The median estimate for the unemployment rate is 4.2%, in line with July but above the trailing 12-month average of 4.1%.
"Given the disorienting slowdown in employment growth," writes Guy Berger, workforce economist in residence at Guild and a senior fellow at the Burning Glass Institute, "the most interesting signals in Friday's jobs report will come from household survey ratios like the unemployment rate and prime-working-age employment-population ratio."
Berger has a longer take on the employment situation: "I don't know what August's data will look like. Some folks I respect have a strong conviction that it's the first step in another non-trivial run-up like the one we saw between January and July 2024 (or perhaps something bigger)."
The economist says that's "well within the realm of possibility" but also "speculation about 'data yet to come' - not something that's latent in 'data we've seen so far'."
An unemployment rate of 4.3% would tip Berger closer to the pessimist camp.
CRM stock gets creamed
Salesforce (CRM) fell as much as 8.5% and was the worst of the 30 Dow Jones stocks Thursday after the cloud-based software company beat the consensus Wall Street forecast for second-quarter revenue and earnings but fell short with its third-quarter top-line guidance.
Salesforce reported earnings of $2.91 per share (+13.7% year over year) on revenue of $10.24 billion (+9.8% YoY). Analysts forecast earnings per share of $2.78 on revenue of $10.14 billion.
Management said third-quarter EPS will be $1.60 to $1.62 on revenue of $10.24 billion to $10.29 billion. Analysts expected revenue guidance of $10.29 billion.
CRM stock closed down 4.8% Thursday, has shed 26.8% so far in 2025, and is among the worst-performing members of the S&P 500 this year.
FIG stock sinks on earnings miss
Figma (FIG), reporting earnings for the first time since its initial public offering (IPO) in July, said second-quarter revenue grew 40.9% to $249.64 million. But FIG stock was down 19.9% because Wall Street wanted to see $250 million.
The cloud-based design software outfit reported earnings of $846,000, essentially $0.00 on a per-share basis, vs a forecast of 9 cents. Figma expects to report revenue growth of 33% for the third quarter and 37% for the full year.
Should you buy FIG stock? is perhaps an even more compelling question with post-IPO froth taken off the top of the share price.
Today in 'up and to the right'
Ben Carlson, director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management, has a great timeline of recent history to share.
"In the past 30 years," Carlson writes, "the following has occurred …" Beginning with the dot-com bubble of 1995 to 2000 and the aftermath of its burst from 2000 to 2002 and ending with Liberation Day, a lot has happened.
And, yet, "Despite all of this, the S&P 500 returned 10.4% per year."
"All of this" includes terrorist attacks and President Donald Trump's tariffs as well as the Great Financial Crisis and a global pandemic.
"This list could go on and on," Carlson concludes. "There's plenty of other stuff that happened that I missed." It's a great reminder that even if markets are spooked you don't have to be.
Related content
- SPACs, SMRs and How to Invest in the Nuclear Insurgency
- If You'd Put $1,000 Into Google Stock 20 Years Ago, Here's What You'd Have Today
- Klarna IPO: Should You Buy KLAR Stock?
-
Don't Waste Your Money on Bad Gifts. Try This Instead.Holiday Happiness These strategies, backed by behavioral finance, can help you find presents that your loved ones will truly enjoy.
-
5 Unique Book-Inspired Trips Across AmericaThere are five great trips to take across America that can immerse you in the culture of your favourite books.
-
I'm a Financial Planner: This Retirement GPS Helps With Navigating Your Drawdown PhaseReady to retire? Here's how to swap your 'peak earnings' mindset for a 'preserve-plus-grow' approach instead of relying on the old, risky 4% rule.
-
Donating Stock Instead of Cash Is the 2-for-1 Deal You'll Love at Tax TimeGiving appreciated stock or using a donor-advised fund (DAF) this year would be smarter than writing a check to support your favorite causes. Here's why.
-
Traveling With Purpose: What Zambia and Zimbabwe Taught Us About Slowing DownDon't treat retirement trips like they're an exercise in ticking off boxes. Slowing down and letting adventure unfold can create more meaningful memories.
-
Investment Expert: Is Your Retirement Portfolio Too Late to the Profit Party?If you're following the usual retirement investment model, you could be missing out on a potential profit period that companies see in the run-up to their IPOs.
-
Losing Your Job? A Financial Planner's 6 Steps to Survive and ThriveWhether pink slips are just rumors at your company or layoffs have already landed, there are things you can do today to make the best of a tough situation.
-
Oil Prices vs Investor Returns: It's What's Beneath the Surface That CountsEngineering, geology and operating discipline can determine the success of oil and gas projects as much as the cost per barrel.
-
Dow Soars 493 Points in Fed-Fueled Bounce: Stock Market TodayNew York Fed President John Williams struck a dovish tone Friday, which eased Wall Street's worries over a potential December pause.
-
Here's What Being in the 2% Club Means for Your RetirementOnly 2% of the population has both a pension and more than $1 million saved. This is a great place to be, but also requires advanced tax planning.
