This government shutdown has officially become the longest in history. In addition to leaving many government workers without a paycheck, the prolonged shutdown is introducing ripple effects throughout the country.
At airports, delays related to staffing issues surged 16% in October across major airlines, forcing an estimated 3.2 million passengers to face cancellations or long waits for delayed flights, according to reporting from Reuters.
The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) tracks on-time performance and causes of delays for dozens of major airlines. While the most recent available data only runs through July of this year, I took a look at the historical performance of major airlines to estimate which ones are most and least likely to leave you stranded.
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To do that, I compared the track records of 10 major U.S. airlines: Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Frontier, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and United. I looked at BTS data going back to the 2018-2019 government shutdown, the previous record holder for longest shutdown.
A major factor influencing whether your particular flight will take off on time is the airport you're flying out of. The shutdown has hit some airports harder than others. But, in addition to opting for an airport with the fewest delays, you can also opt for an airline that's most likely to get you where you're going on time.
Which airlines have the best (and worst) on time performance?
Overall, 2025 has been one of the worst for on-time performance across most major airlines, with the average on-time performance between January and July at 75.52%. That's down from just over 78% last year. The BTS hasn't even released data from the current shutdown yet, but almost all causes of delays were up in the first half of the year compared to 2024.
Still, some airlines managed to get more flights to their destination on time than others. If you want to increase your odds of departing on time, fly these airlines:
- Hawaiian: Hawaiian managed to get 82.5% of flights to their destination on time this year and has generally kept that score in the mid- to high-80s since 2019.
- Delta: While Delta's on-time performance sits at 77.55% for 2025, it's maintained above 80% since 2019, even during the height of the pandemic.
- Spirit: Among budget airlines, Spirit has been the most timely so far this year, with an on-time performance of 77.66%. For the most part, that number has been steadily climbing since the pandemic.
Which airlines should you avoid if you want to arrive on time? According to BTS data, these are the airlines least likely to depart on time:
- Frontier: In the first half of 2025, fewer than 69% of Frontier flights arrived on time. The most common reason for the delay was "aircraft arriving late." That suggests it's a chain reaction of one flight landing late, causing the next flight to take off behind schedule. Frontier's on-time performance has been consistently in the 60s since 2022. If you're taking advantage of the all-you-can-fly pass, make sure to book flights early in the morning to minimize the risk of delays.
- American: With an on-time performance of 71.86% in 2025, American Airlines has done better than Frontier, but it's still among the most delayed airlines this year. It's performance has been falling since the pandemic.
- JetBlue and Allegiant have also historically had subpar on-time performance stats, but both have slightly outperformed Frontier and American this year.
Which airlines are most affected by the air traffic control staffing shortages?
This question is a little trickier to answer. But one of the causes of delay tracked by the BTS is the National Aviation System (NAS) delay. This includes delays caused by airport operations and air traffic control, among other things.
While this statistic includes more than just air traffic control, there are some clear differences between major airlines in how many NAS delays they've reported over the years. So, another way to lower your risk of experiencing flight delays or cancellations is to avoid the airlines that may be more vulnerable to the impact of the government shutdown:
- Spirit: In the first half of 2025, 10.93% of the airline's delays were NAS-related. Looking back at previous years, that proportion is about the same and generally increasing since the pandemic.
- JetBlue: Coming in just behind Spirit is JetBlue with 9.55% of flight delays attributed to NAS. But this represents a sizeable jump over previous years when 7% to 8% of delays were NAS-related.
- Alaska and Frontier also reported above average NAS-related delays this year, but both were under 9%.
Want to increase your chances of arriving on time even further? In addition to avoiding the airlines above, opt for Hawaiian Airlines if you can. Hawaiian reported just 0.27% NAS-related delays this year and has generally kept that number well below 1% every year since 2019. No other airline comes close – though, Southwest is a distant second place on this measure.
Which airlines are most likely to cancel your flight?
Flight delays are bad enough, but sitting around at the airport only to find out your flight was canceled entirely is worse.
If you want to keep the risk of a canceled flight as low as possible, avoid these airlines:
- American: With a cancellation rate of 2.2%, American tops the list for most canceled flights in 2025 so far. That may not sound like a large number, but it's more than double the rate of some of its competitors and higher than the overall average cancellation rate of 1.72%. This is also par for the course for American, which has averaged a cancellation rate of about 2.5% since 2019.
- Frontier: Frontier isn't far behind American, with a 1.99% cancellation rate so far this year. And, that's actually an improvement over the airline's average of 2.34% since 2019.
- Allegiant, Southwest and JetBlue are also worth mentioning here. While all three have had below-average cancellation rates in 2025, their averages since 2019 are high. Allegiant's track record is the most erratic. In 2025, just 0.53% of flights have been cancelled, but its overall average since 2019 is 3.21%.
In addition to avoiding the airlines above, you have the best chance of avoiding a canceled flight on the following airlines:
- Hawaiian: So far this year, Hawaiian has cancelled just 0.89% of its flights. Outside of the pandemic, it's kept this number below 1% most years since 2019.
- Delta: Delta has a similarly low cancelation rate – just 1.05% in 2025 and averaging 1.31% since 2019. So, if you're flying somewhere that Hawaiian doesn't go, Delta is your best bet.
- Alaska and United also deserve honorable mentions. The former has higher cancellation rates than Hawaiian and Delta, but has consistently outperformed the overall average since 2019. United, on the other hand, has done well in the first half of 2025, with a cancellation rate of just 0.91%. But its historic average is just over 2%, which is better than the overall average of 2.36%, but not by much.
Hawaiian and Delta win by most measures
When you take all the stats together, Hawaiian and Delta are the airlines you can most likely depend on. They consistently have the fewest delays, fewest cancellations and appear to be the least impacted by air traffic control staffing shortages. On the flip side, Frontier consistently ranks near the bottom on most metrics. But JetBlue and American also might be more likely to keep you waiting at the airport.
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