Stock Market Winners and Losers of the 'Big, Beautiful' Bill

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published 6 October 2025

The stock market has surged since early April to a solid gain for 2025, so it may come as a surprise to learn that since the start of the year, more than one-third of the components of the S&P 500 Index have declined — 79 of them by at least 10%.

Some of the biggest losers are attractive. I still have worries about the effects of the new tariff regime on the global economy and the U.S. market, but if you are looking for long-term purchases — as you should — this is the time to examine stocks that the market shuns.

My intention is to show how to separate good buys from value traps (that is, stocks that deserve to be cheap).

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Let's begin with UnitedHealth Group (UNH). It's down 49.8% so far this year (through July 31, the date for prices, returns and other data here, unless otherwise noted).

Its woes are many, including the assassination of Brian Thompson, CEO of its UnitedHealthcare unit, which elicited a shocking wave of support for the alleged killer.

Polls found that most Americans blame United's thirst for profits, at least in part, for Thompson's death. More recently, the company announced it was facing a Justice Department criminal and civil investigation for its billing practices.

Many Americans may think United is making too much, but Wall Street thinks it's making too little. The company's Medicare Advantage business has been a disaster because elderly members are going to the doctor more than expected.

Costs are rising in other parts of the health insurer's business as well. In July, United cut its earnings projection for 2025 by half from the January forecast.

Investors are wise to ask: Is the reason for United's problems endemic to the business or the result of mistakes that can be corrected and challenges that can be overcome?

The firms that insure their members against health costs are widely despised, and it's possible that Congress and the White House will seek remedies that will further harm the sector. But politics is part of running any large business in the U.S. today, and United has navigated these shoals before.

A share price that has dropped is the worst reason to sell a stock — or to overlook it if it becomes historically cheap. A decline in share price is a signal that something may be wrong, but errors can be corrected.

More alarming is a fundamental change in the business — increased competition, rising costs that can't be passed on to customers, a decline in a firm's reputation. These are real risks in United's case, but I believe they are outweighed by positives. One of those is that United could benefit from consolidation, with the entire sector suffering and smaller firms in danger.

Deservedly down

Dow Inc. (DOW), by contrast, is down 38.5% and deserves to be. The venerable chemical company is losing money and has cut its dividend.

I'll admit I don’t like commodity stocks anyway; I prefer to bet on brains, not things. But Dow has other problems that are unlikely to go away: Chinese dumping on the one hand, and tariffs on raw materials on the other.

Tariffs are hurting several other big-loser stocks. One is Lululemon Athletica (LULU), a company I have liked since it traded at $40 a decade ago. It broke $500 at the end of 2023, but it recently went for $201 — down 47.6% this year alone.

Half the company's production facilities are in China and Vietnam, but higher duties aren't the only problem. Lulu is getting real competition in the athleisure sector now from Alo Yoga, Vuori and Gap's Athleta.

Analysts expect profits to decline a bit this year but rise 8% next. That might happen, but the challenges are serious. I see risks and benefits as roughly even, so I'm no longer a fan.

United is different. Even in a worst-case scenario this year, the company's profits will have more than quadrupled since 2010. The dividend rose in 2025, for the 16th year in a row, and it appears to be protected for the future. The stock now yields 3.5%.

Value Line reports that for the past 10 years, UnitedHealth's earnings have risen at a 16.5% annual average — an unsustainable rate for practically any company. For the next five years, the forecast is for half that rate, which is still decent. That's one reason Value Line, which rarely succumbs to enthusiasm, says, "We see a long-term buying opportunity."

There are others. Gartner Group (IT), a research and advisory firm with over $6 billion in annual revenues, has dropped 30.1% this year, mainly because the Trump administration has been canceling consulting contracts.

But the concern may be overdone; federal funds represent only 4% of the company's revenues, said CEO Gene Hall on an earnings call. As a services firm, Gartner is largely immune from tariffs.

Another enticing services company that won't be burdened by tariffs is Salesforce (CRM), down 22.5% this year. The tech stock is trading about where it was five years ago, even though profits have risen by half.

Its cloud and artificial intelligence businesses keep growing, and Value Line estimates that the purveyor of customer-relationship software’s earnings will rise at an average of 14% annually for the next five years.

Who can resist chips?

The packaged-foods sector has taken a big hit this year, both because of weakening demand from higher prices and the prospect of a more aggressive Food and Drug Administration.

Shares of General Mills (GIS) and Conagra (CAG) have had serious losses, but I am particularly drawn to The Campbell's Company (CPB), which has fallen 21.0% this year.

Campbell's owns not only the iconic soup brand but also Pepperidge Farm, Swanson, Goldfish, Snyder's pretzels and Cape Cod potato chips.

Earnings have hit a plateau, and investors are frustrated. But the consumer staples stock is cheaper than it was in 2012, and it yields as much as a 30-year Treasury (4.9%). At a market capitalization (price times shares outstanding) of $9.5 billion, it’s also acquisition bait.

Speaking of icons … it is hard to ignore some of the world's best businesses on the Big Losers of 2025 list: Merck (MRK), the pharmaceutical giant, trading at a forward price-earnings ratio of 9; Apple (AAPL), which looks like it will escape a major tariff threat; and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), with a disappointing quarter that has hardly justified a year-to-date drop of 28.9%.

Be clear that I am not advocating bottom-fishing — or buying shares just because they are cheap. Companies such as UnitedHealth Group and Campbell's have shown that they can be profitable in tough environments.

Other stocks have been gliding blithely along on a wave of relief that destructive trade wars haven't materialized, but it makes more sense to search for proven companies that have been disdained, ignored or viewed with deeper pessimism than warranted.

James K. Glassman chairs Glassman Advisory, a public-affairs consulting firm. He does not write about his clients. His most recent book is Safety Net: The Strategy for De-Risking Your Investments in a Time of Turbulence. He owns none of the stocks mentioned here. You can reach him at JKGlassman@gmail.com.

Note: This item first appeared in Kiplinger Personal Finance Magazine, a monthly, trustworthy source of advice and guidance. Subscribe to help you make more money and keep more of the money you make here.

James K. Glassman is a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. His most recent book is Safety Net: The Strategy for De-Risking Your Investments in a Time of Turbulence.