Strong April Jobs Report Keeps Rate Cuts on Hold
The April jobs report shows the labor market remains stable and will likely keep the Fed focused on inflation for the time being.
Rising oil prices have made inflation the more pressing concern for the Federal Reserve recently, though the employment side of its dual mandate bears watching amid volatility in recent nonfarm payrolls reports. That's why the April jobs report is a key economic report to monitor.
In January, for instance, the U.S. added 160,000 new positions. And in February, it lost a downwardly revised 156,000 jobs. March job gains came in at 185,000, upwardly revised from the initial report.
Job growth was positive in April, too. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. added 115,000 new jobs last month, beating economists' estimate for 55,000 positions.
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The industries seeing the biggest jobs gains included healthcare (+37,000), transportation and warehousing (+30,000), and retail trade (+22,000).
On the other hand, federal government jobs continued to decline, falling by 9,000 in April. Since peaking in October 2024, the U.S. has shed nearly 350,000 federal government positions.
The unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate survey, remained unchanged at 4.3%, as expected.
The jobs report also showed that average hourly earnings, a key measure of inflation, was 0.2% higher from March to April and up 3.6% year over year.
ADP jobs report came in higher than expected
On Wednesday, ADP's National Employment Report showed private payrolls rose by 109,000 in April — the strongest pace since early 2025. This was more than the 84,000 new jobs economists expected and the 61,000 private payrolls added in March.
Small and large-sized companies experienced the biggest increases in payrolls last month, but "we're seeing some softness in the middle," says Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. "Large companies have resources to deploy, and small ones are the most nimble, both important advantages in a complex labor environment."
Education and healthcare led the gains, adding 61,000 new jobs, while business and professional services saw the biggest decline, losing 8,000 positions.
With the April jobs report on the books, we looked at what economists, strategists and other experts on Wall Street have to say about the results and what they could mean for the Federal Reserve and investors going forward. You'll find these outlooks, edited at times for brevity, below.
Experts' takes on the April jobs report and what it means for the Fed
"While we're certainly not in the robust labor market we were a few years ago (and there are present and near-future risks), things seem to be stable for now. In the months ahead, we're likely to see some impact of higher oil prices on the labor market. Businesses only have so much money, and when a growing percentage of it must go to oil and oil-adjacent inputs, there's less to go towards hiring, raising wages and expansion. In addition to the airline industry, transportation and freight, and manufacturing could all experience this fallout, particularly if the conflict continues to drag on." - Elizabeth Renter, Senior Economist at NerdWallet
"Not the job print that makes cutting more likely. The Fed will shift its focus to containing upside inflation risks now that the labor market appears back on track. The Federal Open Market Committee could well feel compelled to remove the easing bias from its next post-meeting statement in June, which would suggest the hawks are gaining the upper hand on the committee for the time being. Strong data and inflation have likely put paid to any easing in the foreseeable future, though this could change depending on how energy prices and the situation in the Middle East develop." - Lindsay Rosner, Head of Multi-Sector Fixed Income Investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management
"Friday's strong jobs report shows that the labor market is in the early stages of growing again, after a more than 6-month lull, which is welcome news for the economy and the stock market since employment is the lifeblood of our economy. Even with signs of life in the labor market, the Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold when it comes to interest rates for the near-term to allow the inflationary and oil price spike to play itself out." - Chris Kampitsis, Managing Partner at Barnum Financial Group
"This morning's report reinforces the current steady state of the labor market and the broader economic pace. April's headline results and the muted revisions to the prior months' data support the view for monetary policy to remain in a neutral stance. The inflationary and economic impact of elevated energy prices will continue to be a key market driver moving forward, particularly as we enter the summer months that typically bring higher demand." - Jordan Rizzuto, Managing Partner and CIO at GammaRoad Capital Partners
"The economy is so much better than what the doom crew has been saying. There are a lot of headwinds – higher oil prices, sticky inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates – and yet the labor market is adding jobs, GDP is growing and corporate profits are expanding at a rapid pace. The stock market has been running to new highs and for those that were scratching their heads given all of the geopolitical uncertainty and supply shocks, the short answer is stock prices follow earnings and – at least for now – earnings are growing too quickly for the market to ignore." - Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Northlight Asset Management
"The U.S. jobs market continues to idle just above a stall. The three-month trailing employment gain (48k) appears just enough to absorb new supply – leaving the unemployment rate flat at 4.3%. The FOMC will just have to bide its time. Too soon to throttle up, too early to let off the choke." - Brad Conger, Chief Investment Officer at Hirtle & Co.
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