Kiplinger Energy Outlook: No Major Pain at the Pump This Thanksgiving Weekend
Folks hitting the road this holiday will see gas prices in line with last year.
Kiplinger’s Economic Outlooks are written by the staff of our weekly Kiplinger Letter and are unavailable elsewhere. Click here for a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or to subscribe for the latest trends and forecasts from our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team.
If you’re one of the millions of Americans driving to visit friends or family this Thanksgiving, you shouldn’t have too much to complain about at the gas station. The national average price of regular unleaded is now $3.07 per gallon, just one penny more than it was on this date a year ago. And with crude oil prices weakening, the retail price of gas might actually dip slightly as the busy travel days approach. Truckers hauling holiday items will pay a bit more for diesel, though. It is averaging $3.79 per gallon nationwide, up from $3.54 a year ago. Chemically similar heating oil is also up modestly this year, in line with diesel’s rise.
Oil prices have been trending lower on the combination of ample global supplies and seasonally soft demand. Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude recently traded around $58 per barrel, after spending most of this year in the $60s or low $70s. Consumers will benefit from the downturn in the form of cheaper refined fuels. But producers will struggle to maintain their profit margins with crude trading below $60. We look for WTI to stay at or below $60 per barrel as late fall turns to winter. For now, there are no major signs that demand is poised to perk up, while supply should remain on the high side. The one wild card is U.S. sanctions and other sanctions on Russia’s oil exports in retaliation for its ongoing war on Ukraine, which could tighten global oil markets if they are enforced aggressively enough.
From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance
Become a smarter, better informed investor. Subscribe from just $107.88 $24.99, plus get up to 4 Special Issues
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Natural gas prices have rebounded on weather forecasts showing a sharp cold spell across much of the United States, arriving around Thanksgiving. Benchmark gas futures contracts recently traded near $4.50 per million British thermal units, after spending most of this year below $3 per MMBtu. Whether the price spike proves durable or fleeting depends on whether the cold weather sticks around. If it does, we expect gas futures to stay above $4 per MMBtu, and possibly hit $5. That would translate into noticeably higher heating bills this winter for the many households that rely on natural gas.
Related content
- Gas-Saving Tips That Actually Work
- Who Controls Gas Prices in the US?
- Save Money on Heating Costs With These Easy Solutions
-
What to Watch for When Refinancing Your Home MortgageA smart refinance can save you thousands, but only if you know how to avoid costly pitfalls, calculate true savings and choose the right loan for your goals.
-
The 10 Best Splurge Destinations for Retirees in 2026Come for the luxury vacation. Retire for the lifestyle (if the vacay goes well). What better way to test a location for retiring abroad?
-
Builders Are Offering Big Mortgage Incentives — What Homebuyers Should Watch ForBuilder credits and below-market mortgage rates can ease affordability pressures, but the savings often come with trade-offs buyers should understand before signing.
-
What Changed on January 1: Check Out These Opportunities Created by the New Tax LawA deep dive into the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) reveals key opportunities in 2026 and beyond.
-
Beat the Money Blues With This Easy Financial Check-In to Get 2026 Off to a Good StartAs 2026 takes off, half of Americans are worried about the cost of everyday goods. A simple budget can help you beat the money blues and reach long-term goals.
-
Do Self-Storage REITs Deserve Space in Your Portfolio? It's a Yes From This Investment AdviserSelf-storage is an overlooked area of the real estate market, even though demand is strong. Investors can get in on the action through a REIT.
-
Dow Hits a Record High After December Jobs Report: Stock Market TodayThe S&P 500 also closed the week at its highest level on record, thanks to strong gains for Intel and Vistra.
-
The December Jobs Report Is Out. Here's What It Means for the Next Fed MeetingThe December jobs report signaled a sluggish labor market, but it's not weak enough for the Fed to cut rates later this month.
-
4 Simple Money Targets to Aim for in 2026 (And How to Hit Them), From a Financial PlannerWhile January is the perfect time to strengthen your financial well-being, you're more likely to succeed if you set realistic goals and work with a partner.
-
Estate Planning Isn't Just for the Ultra-WealthyIf you've acquired assets over time, even just a home and some savings, you have an estate. That means you need a plan for that estate for your beneficiaries.
-
How to Be a Smart Insurance Shopper: The Price Might Be Right, But the Coverage Might Not BeChoosing the cheapest policy could cost you when you have a loss. You'll get the best results if you focus on the right coverage with the help of a good agent.
