Alexandra Twin
The 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) announcement is back on track.
Some furloughed government workers are being called back to produce a critical piece of September inflation data needed for the calculation. This is a relief to retirees who were concerned the shutdown would indefinitely delay their much-anticipated benefit increase news.
Although the government remains shut down, some workers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have been brought back to prepare the September consumer price index (CPI), needed to compile the annual COLA.
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The September CPI, originally due for release on October 15, will now be released on October 24 at 8:30 am ET, the BLS announced on Wednesday. The COLA is expected to follow on the same day.
"This release allows the Social Security Administration (SSA) to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits," the BLS said in a statement, noting that no other releases will be scheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services.
The October 1 shutdown of the federal government raised fears earlier this month that the announcement of the annual Social Security COLA would be delayed indefinitely while the government remained closed.
However, even with the delay in the announcement, an increase in Social Security benefits as a result of the COLA is still expected to take effect in January, the same as was originally planned.
The longest government shutdown lasted 35 days.
I want to be clear that a shutdown will not impact the payment of Social Security benefits to any recipients. Retiree benefits, disability payments, and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) will be paid in full and on time with no changes to SSA's 2025 payment schedule.
The government shutdown resulted in the furlough of most BLS staff, leading to the suspension of data collection, processing, and scheduled releases, including the September Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The September CPI-W is the last piece of data needed to calculate the COLA.
This delay impacts more than the COLA announcement. The new numbers are also used to calculate the limits for the Social Security earnings test and the tax wage cap for 2026.
How the COLA is determined
The Social Security COLA is calculated automatically based on the year-over-year change in the CPI-W. The calculation compares the average CPI-W for the third calendar quarter, which includes July, August and September of the current year, to the third-quarter average of the last year.
While we have the data for July and August, the September report was scheduled to be released on October 15. Based on two months of the required data, the estimated 2026 COLA sits at 2.7%.
The BLS, which is part of the Department of Labor, is responsible for collecting, processing and publishing this crucial inflation data. The final piece of data needed for the calculation — the September CPI-W report — will now be released on October 24, despite the ongoing shutdown.
The COLA announcement is now also expected on October 24.
| Row 0 - Cell 0 | Status During Shutdown | Why? |
Social Security Checks | Not delayed | Social Security benefits are funded by dedicated trust funds (mandatory spending) and aren't subject to the annual appropriations process. Payments continue as scheduled. |
COLA Announcement | Delayed until October 24 from the original October 15 | The SSA can't announce the COLA until the BLS releases the September inflation data, which has been delayed until October 24. |
COLA Effective Date | Not delayed | Once the delayed data is released, the COLA is calculated, and it will still take effect in January (for the benefits received in January). |
90 days remain until COLA adjustments take place
Even with the delay to the release of the September data, the new benefit amount will still take effect with the January Social Security payments. A delay is only expected in the announcement of the percentage, not the application of the increase itself.
Until then, tens of millions of beneficiaries will remain in suspense about the exact size of their benefit increase.
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