Buyers stepped in after stocks slumped at Thursday's opening bell, but the potential impact of even dramatically reduced tariffs continues to burden markets.
Remarks from the world's most important central banker, as well as earnings and guidance from the world's biggest retailer, reflect lingering uncertainty, with incoming economic data providing little clarity.
In remarks prepared for delivery at the Federal Reserve Board's Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned of higher interest rates over the long term and reiterated his concern about new challenges confronting monetary policymakers.
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"Higher real rates may also reflect the possibility that inflation could be more volatile going forward," Powell said. "We may be entering a period of more frequent, and potentially more persistent, supply shocks — a difficult challenge for the economy and for central banks."
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note slipped to 4.447% from 4.528% on Wednesday. The so-called "fear gauge" – the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) – has settled down to 18.05, within its "normal" range of 12 to 20, from a recent intraday high of 60.13 on April 7.
At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.7% to 42,322 and the broad-based S&P 500 Index had added 0.4% to 5,916 but the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was lower by 0.2% to 19,112.
Incoming data signals
Before Thursday's opening bell, the Census Bureau said retail sales grew by 0.1% to $724.1 billion in April, below a FactSet-compiled consensus estimate of 0.2% and a slowdown from 1.7% growth in March.
Sales were up 5.2% compared to April 2024.
"This 'control' input for personal consumption expenditures suggests that real consumer spending downshifted further in the second quarter, as sentiment dove as the trade war ramped up," observes BMO Capital Markets Senior Economist Sal Guatieri.
"A subsequent rolling back of some tariffs and rebound in equities should support spending in future months," Guatieri says, "assuming further progress on the trade front."
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 0.5% in April. PPI was unchanged in March after a 0.2% increase in February.
"As with the CPI release, tariffs have yet to make much of a mark on pricing, though it's likely just a matter of time," Guatieri notes.
WMT rises, falls, rises
Walmart (WMT) bounced in the pre-market and traded above $100 after it released fiscal year 2026 first-quarter earnings and guidance, but sank as low as $91.89 within the first 30 minutes of regular trading. By the closing bell, the blue chip stock was down just 0.4% at $96.44.
WMT stock's intraday trajectory largely mirrors the moves of the broader market so far in 2025 as it's adjusted to President Donald Trump's second administration: up before the inauguration, down due to "Liberation Day," back up on relatively good news about tariffs.
Walmart reported earnings of 61 cents per share, better than a consensus forecast of 58 cents. Revenue grew by 2.5% to $165.6 billion, slightly below the Street's forecast. Management said second-quarter sales will rise by 3.5% to 4.5% but refrained from offering income and earnings guidance.
"Given the dynamic nature of the backdrop, and the range of near-term outcomes being exceedingly wide and difficult to predict," explained Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey in the company's earnings release, "we felt it best to hold from providing a specific range of guidance for operating income growth and EPS for the second quarter."
Rainey added that Walmart "can navigate well and achieve [its] full-year guidance" for sales growth of 3% to 4% and EPS of $2.50 to $2.60.
UBS Global Research analyst Michael Lasser says Walmart's results "showed why the stock is well set up to outperform." The retailer "generated robust sales momentum, exceeded its original Q1 EPS guidance, and maintained its full year guide."
Lasser, who rates WMT stock Buy with a 12-month target price of $110, notes that "the attributes of its model are working regardless of the backdrop," highlighting its scale as well as its value-focused approach.
UNH is headed for the hoosegow
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) was once again the worst-performing Dow Jones stock after The Wall Street Journal reported the health insurer is being investigated by the Department of Justice for Medicare fraud.
UNH stock ended the day down 11% after falling as much as 19.2%. The health insurer shed 17.8% on Tuesday following the abrupt resignation of CEO Andrew Witty.
According to the WSJ, "While the exact nature of the potential criminal allegations against UnitedHealth is unclear, the people said the federal investigation is focusing on the company's Medicare Advantage business practices."
UNH is now down nearly 30% so far this week and 40% so far in 2025. Deutsche Bank analyst George Hill reiterated his Buy rating on the stock following Witty's resignation but reduced his 12-month price target from $521 to $362.
The analyst notes that UNH "has now guided down EPS three years in a row, with most of the negative revisions rooted in the Medicare Advantage (MA) business."
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