Stock Market Today: Stocks Chop as Chipmakers Decline

Stocks opened higher Friday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, whose name is in the running to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, said rate cuts could come as soon as the central bank's July meeting.

"I think we’re in the position that we could do this as early as July," Waller told CNBC during an episode of "Squawk Box," noting that he doesn't expect tariff-related effects on inflation to be "that big."

However, he made sure to point out that this is his view, not necessarily the outlook of the broader Federal Open Market Committee.

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In the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, released alongside the FOMC statement after the June Fed meeting on Wednesday, seven committee members expressed expectations that the federal funds rate will remain at its current 4.25% to 4.5% through year's end.

Chip stocks drop

Price action turned choppy mid-morning, though, as several semiconductor stocks sold off after a report in The Wall Street Journal suggested the U.S. is preparing to revoke waivers that allow global chipmakers operating in China to gain access to American products without applying for a license each time.

This follows a trade truce between the U.S. and China from earlier this month that included an agreement to hold off on initiating new export controls. While The Wall Street Journal says this "action isn't a new trade escalation," it could disrupt the delicate negotiations between the two countries.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) tumbled 1.9%, while Nvidia (NVDA) shed 1.1% and Marvell Technology (MRVL, -1.9%).

Tesla's $2 trillion bull case

Tesla (TSLA) eked out a 0.03% gain ahead of the electric vehicle maker's highly anticipated robotaxi launch in Austin, Texas, this Sunday, June 22. The initial rides, which are by invitation only, will be in Tesla's Model Y SUV.

"The golden era of autonomous for Tesla officially kicks off on Sunday," says Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives. While the initiative will start small this summer in Austin, he expects it will scale to roughly 25 U.S. cities over the next year.

"We view this autonomous chapter as one of the most important for Musk and Tesla in its history as a company," Ives says.

And Ives believes "Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bull case scenario" when combining its full-self-driving (FSD) and autonomous penetration, along with the acceleration of Cybercab and its AI opportunity.

This is double Tesla's market cap of $1.04 trillion at the June 20 close. Just five U.S. companies currently have a market cap above $2 trillion: Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia, Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL).

Red-hot Circle gets its first Buy rating

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) surged 20.4% after the stablecoin platform received its first Buy rating. Seaport Research Partners analyst Jeff Cantwell initiated coverage on the crypto stock, along with a $235 price target – below CRCL's June 20 close at $240.28.

Shares have been red-hot since Circle's June 5 initial public offering (IPO) – up roughly 190% since its close that day – thanks in part to the Senate's recent passage of the GENIUS Act.

The bill will create a regulatory framework for stablecoins and expand the market for the cryptocurrency.

Cantwell expects stablecoin's "market cap" to reach $2 trillion over the long term, from its current roughly $250 billion. "As this occurs, we see Circle generating annual revenue growth of 25%-30% … with the ability to drive operating leverage as it scales further," the analyst adds.

Cantwell also calls the Circle Payments Network (CPN) a potentially "disruptive service in areas like supplier payments, remittances, and even payroll."

As for the main indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.08% at 42,206, the S&P 500 was 0.2% lower at 5,967, and the Nasdaq Composite had shed 0.5% to 19,447.

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