Stock Market Today: Mixed Messages Muddle Markets

Equity futures pointed higher until about 45 minutes before Thursday's opening bell, when President Donald Trump said planned tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China will take effect on March 4. Incoming data continue to indicate a relatively stable if not quite normal economy. But the president's post marked the beginning of another up-and-down session for investors, traders and speculators.

Nvidia (NVDA) appeared to absorb the brunt of Trump's latest communiqué from Truth Social and posted the biggest negative number among the 30 Dow Jones stocks the day after the semiconductor superstar and the engine of the AI rally reported fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter earnings.

Multiple blue chip stocks – including old-school international conglomerate 3M (MMM) – caught bids on Thursday. But, after sliding into the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 0.5% to 43,239.

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The broad-based S&P 500 Index gapped up early, dropped into negative territory within the first 30 minutes of action, attempted to rally but closed down 1.6% near its lows of the day at 5,861. The Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, suffered for its heavy exposure to tech stocks and lost 2.8% to 18,544.

Nvidia: tariff trouble or margin error

The glow of Nvidia Day gave out by 9:30 am Eastern Time, and NVDA stock closed down 8.5%. This drop occurred even though the world's leading AI chipmaker appeared to exceed Wall Street expectations with its results and guidance.

Revenue and earnings figures were fine. And, if you listen to CEO Jensen Huang and Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress, they believe Nvidia's business is optimized for an AI revolution that is still in its earliest stages.

Indeed, the critical next-generation Blackwell program is ramping up faster than expected to satisfy "customers who are anxious and impatient to get their systems," as Huang explained during Nvidia's conference call on Wednesday evening.

That ramp-up is the thing, though: As Kress and Huang detailed, Nvidia's efforts to pull together about 1.5 million parts across 350 manufacturing facilities to make those Blackwell systems have pushed up costs and compressed margins.

Kress emphasized that it's only temporary and that margins will expand from the low 70s to the more familiar mid-70s by fiscal year's end.

"We still believe that the chips, boards, and systems ramp wasn't as smooth as might have been hoped," writes Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives in a post-Nvidia Day note. "But it's hard to argue these issues had a discernible impact on NVDA's trajectory other than perhaps moving some revenue between quarters."

Ives reiterated his Outperform rating (which means Buy) and his 12-month price target of $175. "Given the quarter's strength, a lack of any meaningful concerns and what looks to be extremely clear sailing ahead," the analyst explains, "we see no reason to shift our positive outlook on NVDA."

More major moves

What was once Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing has its roots in the Second Industrial Revolution. But 3M has survived into the dawn of another major upheaval.

After reporting solid results and issuing positive full-year guidance in late January, MMM stock was up 2.1% Thursday as investors digested a plan management introduced Wednesday that it says will help the Post-it Note maker thrive in the new era.

3M, which cut its dividend and replaced its CEO last year, reiterated its 2025 guidance but said organic sales growth "will outperform macro" over the ensuing two years, with operating margin improving to approximately 25% by 2027. Management also forecast "high-single-digit" annual earnings per share growth and "greater than 100% free cash flow conversion."

"Certainly no fireworks," writes Wolfe Research analyst Nigel Coe, "but a balanced financial plan that will likely place a firm emphasis on growth acceleration." Coe's meetings with members of 3M's management team reveal "more focus on new product innovation and customers," citing the leadership of CEO Bill Brown, who assumed the top spot in May 2024.

"This narrative could be the single biggest takeaway." Coe rates MMM stock Buy with a 12-month target price of $170, upside of 13% from Thursday's close.

Meanwhile, Salesforce (CRM) stock fell 4% after the software provider reported mixed results for its fourth quarter and issued a weaker-than-expected outlook for the current quarter and the year ahead.

Snowflake (SNOW) stock surged 4.5% after the cloud company beat top- and bottom-line expectations for its fourth quarter, issued a strong forecast for the year ahead and announced an expanded partnership with Microsoft (MSFT).

eBay (EBAY) stock declined 8.2% after the e-commerce platform beat top- and bottom-line expectations for its fourth quarter but issued a mixed outlook for its first quarter.

Incoming economic data

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday morning that its second estimate shows gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter, consistent with the preliminary print and in line with expectations.

And the Census Bureau said new orders for manufactured durable goods were up 3.1% from December to January, to $286 billion.

"Today's estimates place demand for manufactured goods on solid footing to start 2025," writes Barclays economist Jonathan Millar. "Although Q4 GDP estimates have shown declining equipment spending, today's data point to a rebound in spending in Q1."

Meanwhile, the Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to a five-month high during the week ending February 22. The advance figure was 242,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week's level, which was revised up to 220,000 from 219,000. The four-week moving average increased by 8,500 to 224,000.

"Today's jobless claims surprise will dial up anticipation for next week's employment data," observes E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley Managing Director Chris Larkin, "but it remains to be seen whether the increase is just an outlier or the beginning of a trend."

Larkin notes that the market's initial reaction to the Trump administration's plan to follow through with tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China "suggests the market continues to be susceptible to policy uncertainty."

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