Kiplinger’s: What do you see ahead for 2021?
Link: To talk about 2021, you have to put it in the context of 2020. We have to deal with the increase of COVID cases versus progress with vaccines and with testing. The time line is uncertain for the next round of fiscal stimulus, but the fact that we need it is absolutely certain. All of this is against the backdrop of way-better-than-expected corporate earnings. So, companies are dealing with all these uncertainties, but sometimes investors cannot, and this is why you have fluctuations in the market.
Where is the economy headed? The economy has been uneven, and that will continue until we get a vaccine—which is why the Pfizer news of a successful trial is so important. Pockets have done well—housing, autos and manufacturing have seen a V-shaped recovery. But there’s a lot of bad: travel, leisure and hospitality, small and medium-size businesses closing every day, 10 million people unemployed. It’s important for the good pieces to pick up the slack until we get another stimulus package. You could potentially see gross domestic product growth of 4% to 5% in 2021.
How will the market adjust to a new president? I think the market likes a Biden win with a split Congress because it’s gridlock—you don’t get many surprises. But research from Capital Group shows that over the past eight decades, in 18 of 19 presidential elections, no matter which party won, a hypothetical $10,000 investment made at the beginning of each election year would have gained in value over the next 10 years, and in 15 of those 10-year periods, it would have more than doubled. I don’t want to say the election is meaningless, but it really is less important than other fundamentals over the long term.
What would you focus on? I have learned over my career that stocks follow profits, and if profits are going higher, stocks eventually will. Earnings are recovering nicely, which tells me that fiscal and monetary stimulus is doing its job. Next year we could see earnings growth of 30%-plus. Find good companies with high market share and good balance sheets. These companies are getting help from all the stimulus, but they’re also doing an amazing job at figuring out how to deal with this pandemic and the recession.
Do you have a target for the S&P 500? I don’t. But I think returns will be above average, in the high-single-digit percentages, given historically low interest rates and economic stimulus. I do think all of this money pumped into the market by the Federal Reserve matters. There’s a reason why people say “Don’t fight the Fed.”
What themes do you see playing out in 2021? I advocate a barbell approach. You want to own both growth-oriented stocks and “cyclical” stocks. If I’m right about all the stimulus leading to better economic growth, then you want to own those economically sensitive companies. They’ve cut costs, and their profit margins are solid. If you get an improvement in revenues, then the impact on earnings is huge. Look for blue-chip-quality companies—with good balance sheets, rising dividends and increasing market share.
And the growth side? We know technology is over-owned. You don’t have to chase those stocks. But the addressable markets in a few themes—artificial intelligence, subscription-based software cloud computing, e-commerce and contactless payments—are going to be huge. You have to pick the winners and losers, but these are the themes that you want to have exposure to.
What are some examples of stocks to consider for 2021? In tech, I like Salesforce.com (symbol CRM (opens in new tab)) and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI (opens in new tab)). I like autos, but instead of Ford or GM, I want to own auto parts companies, like Aptiv (APTV (opens in new tab)), which provides safety technology and connectivity in the car. I like what Fortinet (FTNT (opens in new tab)) is doing in cybersecurity. In industrials, I like Caterpillar (CAT (opens in new tab)) and United Parcel Service (UPS (opens in new tab))—that’s a great company with a new CEO. Housing is a powerful theme. Look at a builder, such as D.R. Horton (DHI (opens in new tab)), or toolmaker Stanley Black & Decker (SWK (opens in new tab)). You can offset safe housing stocks with hospitality stocks, which are still down a lot. Marriott International (MAR (opens in new tab)) is interesting, as is Wynn Resorts (WYNN (opens in new tab)). You can’t get over your skis in these stocks until we get a COVID vaccine, but these are quality companies. I love the animal health business. I’m putting my chips on Zoetis (ZTS (opens in new tab)).
Where do you stand on foreign markets? The demographics and the stimulus put in place in emerging Asia Pacific countries, and in China specifically, are positives, and those countries have come out of the pandemic quicker. But emerging markets can plunge in a heartbeat. I would put a small percentage of my stock portfolio in emerging markets—5% to 10%—and I’d use a diversified, index-based exchange-traded fund. Europe is certainly cheap. The problem is, companies there can’t restructure the way U.S. companies can, so their profit margins are low.
What’s your take on fixed-income investing? With interest rates so low, we have to think out-of-the-box for yield. Depending on your risk profile and your time line, maybe that’s a combination of Treasury inflation-protected securities, preferred stocks, gold, bond-like stocks—such as an AT&T or Verizon—and stock-like bonds, including investment-grade corporate debt. I’d put a little emerging-markets debt in that basket, too.
Anne Kates Smith brings Wall Street to Main Street, with decades of experience covering investments and personal finance for real people trying to navigate fast-changing markets, preserve financial security or plan for the future. She oversees the magazine's investing coverage, authors Kiplinger’s biannual stock-market outlooks and writes the "Your Mind and Your Money" column, a take on behavioral finance and how investors can get out of their own way. Smith began her journalism career as a writer and columnist for USA Today. Prior to joining Kiplinger, she was a senior editor at U.S. News & World Report and a contributing columnist for TheStreet. Smith is a graduate of St. John's College in Annapolis, Md., the third-oldest college in America.
A Financial Review in Early 2023 Can Optimize Your Strategy
Look to build savings, reduce risk, minimize taxes and ensure a successful retirement by reviewing your budget, contributions, allocations and beneficiaries.
By Ken Nuss • Published
How to pick the best robo advisor for you
Kiplinger's guide to the best robo advisors to fit your needs.
By Kim Clark • Published
Kiplinger's Weekly Earnings Calendar (Jan. 23-27)
stocks Check out our earnings calendar for the upcoming week, as well as our previews of the more noteworthy reports.
By Karee Venema • Published
7 Best Small-Cap Stocks to Buy for 2023 and Beyond
small cap stocks Analysts say a tough 2022 has left these small-cap stocks priced for outperformance in the new year and beyond.
By Dan Burrows • Published
Stock Market Holidays in 2023: NYSE, NASDAQ and Wall Street Holidays
Markets When are the stock market holidays? Take a look at which days the NYSE, Nasdaq and bond markets are off in 2023.
By Kyle Woodley • Published
Stock Market Trading Hours: What Time Is the Stock Market Open Today?
Markets When does the market open? While it's true the stock market does have regular hours, trading doesn't stop when the major exchanges close.
By Michael DeSenne • Published
Bogleheads Stay the Course
Bears and market volatility don’t scare these die-hard Vanguard investors.
By Kim Clark • Published
Kiplinger's Retail Outlook: Sales on a Downtrend
Economic Forecasts Weakening retail sales and high inventories point to further cuts in production.
By David Payne • Last updated
Kiplinger Energy Outlook: Watch Out for Rising Gas Prices
Economic Forecasts After a long decline last year, the price at the pump is perking up again.
By Jim Patterson • Last updated
Kiplinger's Interest Rates Outlook: Long-Term Rates to Stay Soft
Economic Forecasts Signs of a slowing economy and easing inflation are key to the rates outlook.
By David Payne • Last updated