It’s been more than seven years since Wade Pfau, one of the top professionals in retirement research, wrote a column for MarketWatch urging readers to “Say Goodbye to the 4% Rule.”
In it, Pfau suggests that the “rule” — which is more of a theory, really — made too many assumptions based on old numbers that didn’t necessarily translate to modern markets — or modern investors. A few months later, in 2013, Pfau and fellow retirement professionals Michael Finke and David Blanchett published their study, “The 4 Percent Rule is Not Safe in a Low-Yield World,” further demonstrating why advisers who base their clients’ withdrawal plans on historical data could be doing them a disservice.
Since then, the topic has been debated in just about every financial forum out there (including this one). Not everyone believes the 4% rule must be completely discarded, mind you. But I think most retirement professionals would say it is, at most, a guideline or starting point for determining what’s appropriate for each individual’s needs — not a hard-and-fast, one-size-fits-all rule.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
And yet, I still hear from retirees and pre-retirees regularly who are using it without question to determine a sustainable portfolio withdrawal rate in retirement. Or their advisers are.
How the 4% Rule Works
If you aren’t familiar with the 4% rule, it asserts that retirees won’t run out of money as long as they withdraw approximately 4% from their portfolios, adjusted for inflation, each year. It was created in the 1990s, based on stock and bond returns over a 50-year period, from 1926 to 1976. And it made sense for many folks — for a while.
But times change, and so does investing. For one thing, the 4% rule came about when interest rates were much higher. Back then, you could get a Treasury note that was paying 5% or 6%. Now, the 10-year Treasury rate is at less than 2%, and there are no signs that it’s going to be rising significantly in the near future.
That means many older investors are looking to stocks to make their money, and often they’re taking more risk. This type of strategy may work out while the market is good, or even if there’s an occasional dip. But if your plan is to withdraw 4% from your retirement accounts every year and there’s a drastic drop in the market, suddenly you could be taking 4% out of a portfolio that’s been cut by a third or even half.
What Happens When a Downturn Hits the Market?
If you run into a bear market early in retirement and continue withdrawing the same amount, you’ll have to sell more stocks to get there. And you’ll risk putting your portfolio into a downward spiral.
Even if the market eventually recovers, your portfolio might not. You may have to downsize your withdrawals — and your planned lifestyle — or risk running out of money. Add in increased longevity, the possibility of higher taxes in the future and, of course, the fees you might be paying to manage those stocks, and you can see why the 4% faithful might want to rethink their withdrawal strategy — and their overall attitude toward retirement income.
To Thrive, Switch Your Focus to Income Instead
That requires a significant mindset shift, from “How much return do I hope to get from my portfolio?” to “How much reliable income can I count on?” And instead of working with a generic withdrawal percentage, it means choosing investments — high dividend-paying stocks, fixed income instruments, annuities, etc. — that will produce the dollar amount you need ($2,000, $3,000, $5,000 or more) month after month and year after year.
Most investors — and some advisers — aren’t well-trained for this. Accumulation gets all the glory in retirement planning, but it’s a thoughtful decumulation process that can make your retirement a true success.
In our practice, we often use a mountain-climbing analogy to get this message across. While climbers may feel they’ve conquered the most difficult part of their quest when they reach the summit, and that’s when they tend to celebrate, according to a 2017 study, 75% of dangerous falls occur on the descent.
It’s not a lot different when you’re working toward retirement. Most people dream of the day when they’ve accumulated enough money to move on to the next phase of their lives, and they diligently save for that goal. But without proper planning for the “descent” — when instead of contributing to your retirement accounts, you’re pulling money out — it’s easy to make mistakes. And dropping your guard could be devastating.
Retirees Need to Rein in Their Risk
In the financial world, putting your portfolio at risk by steadily withdrawing funds during retirement, regardless of market conditions, has been referred to as “dollar-cost ravaging” (a bit of wordplay based on the accumulation strategy of dollar-cost averaging). And it’s a true risk for retirees.
Limiting your losses at this stage in your life is as critical as growing your money when you’re working. If you’re near or in retirement, and you’re still going with a 50-50 or even 40-60 stock-bond mix or all S&P 500 stocks, it’s time to change your focus to income. Talk to your financial professional about adjusting your portfolio. And say goodbye to the 4% rule’s potential for retirement peril.
Kim Franke-Folstad contributed to this article.
-
Stocks Can't Hold Meta, Microsoft Gains: Stock Market TodayThe main indexes all opened higher Thursday on impressive Big Tech earnings, but momentum faded into the close.
-
Retirement Health Care Costs Are On the Rise: What You Need to KnowA 65-year-old retiree will face significantly higher lifetime health care costs than they would have a year ago, even with Medicare. Here are the surprising totals.
-
You Don't Have to Be Wealthy to Need a Wealth ManagerNavigating complex financial decisions is hard on your own, no matter how much money you have. A wealth manager can provide comprehensive financial planning, investment management, risk management and more.
-
Despite Tariffs, These Investment Experts Are Bullish on European EquitiesEuropean equities were one of the better-performing investments during the first half of 2025. They could be a good long-term prospect for U.S. investors needing to diversify, according to these investment managers.
-
How Do You Know You Are Ready for a Gray Divorce? 15 Yes-or-No QuestionsAs more people 50 and older get divorced, many splits are initiated by women who want a new path. Answer these 15 questions to see if you might need to think about how you should move forward.
-
'Buy Now, Pay Later' for Everyday Spending? This Financial Pro Thinks It's Risky'Buy Now, Pay Later' apps can get you out of a jam when you need money quickly. But using them regularly for small purchases could create problems.
-
Five Things to Consider Before Rolling Your 401(k) into a Roth IRAConverting at least some of an old 401(k) to a Roth IRA can offer long-term tax benefits and retirement flexibility, especially if you anticipate being in a higher tax bracket later or wish to leave a tax-free legacy.
-
From Dream Apartment to Nightmare: When Your Landlord Evicts You Through No Fault of Your OwnThis is what I suggested a tenant do to get out of her lease after her landlord's inexperience and lack of action made her rental situation unsafe. It's a legal situation called 'constructive eviction.'
-
Six Steps to Being Empowered and On Track: An Expert Financial Guide for WomenWhile most female investors feel on track with their financial goals and empowered by managing their investments, many regret not starting sooner. Here's how you can get started and take control of your financial future.
-
Selling Your Business? This Powerful Insurance Option Unlocks Multigenerational WealthPrivate placement life insurance (PPLI) offers almost unbelievable investment flexibility, estate planning and tax advantages. And it's completely legit.
