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CURRENT LETTER

 
The Kiplinger Washington Editors
Oct. 10, 2008
 

Stock Market Panic:
What Happens Next?

A heart-stopping, gut-wrenching stock market plunge is classic panic. It'll end eventually, but the economy will still need to work through a recession. This week's Kiplinger Letter looks at how we see the economy and government moves to shore up credit markets unfolding in the months ahead.
 
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About a year ago I started a golf accessory online business . I would like to know how I can best market the site to get more visibility from customers as well as differentiating myself from other golf online store.
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Mortgages: So What's the Plan?

The devil is always in the details, and that's certainly true of the plan brokered by the administration to help subprime mortgage holders.
 
 

The plan to freeze "teaser rates" on subprime mortgages due to reset to higher rates within the next two years is a complicated one that won't help everyone. Here are some key questions and answers, with many details yet to be worked out.

Q: What's the gist of the plan?

A: It's a private sector plan brokered by the government that aims to prevent a wave of expected foreclosures. It would do that by allowing troubled homeowners facing interest rate hikes in the form of resets in the next two years to keep their lower introductory, or "teaser," rates for up to five more years. The rate freeze plan would apply to mortgage borrowers with loans taken out between the start of 2005 and July 30 of this year, and with rates scheduled to rise between Jan. 1, 2008 and July 31, 2010. Anyone whose rate has already reset is stuck with the higher payment.

Q: Are there conditions?

A: Absolutely. Lenders and mortgage servicers get a lot of discretion to decide who's in and who's out. And remember, the whole thing is voluntary for both sides (in fact, 16% of lenders aren't participating at all). To begin with, anyone already in arrears by more than a month is ineligible. Others will qualify only if lenders and mortgage servicers determine both that they can continue to pay current rates and that they cannot pay the reset rates. Homeowners now in the foreclosure process or those who have already refinanced are also ineligible. Only homes occupied by owners are eligible.

Q: How many will it help?

A: Estimates vary widely, and it'll take a while to really know. The Bush administration says that as many as 1.2 million of the 1.8 million facing rate resets over the next two years will be eligible to apply. Probably far fewer will qualify -- perhaps only a couple of hundred thousand.

Q: Is this a bailout? What will it cost the taxpayer?

A: That depends on what you mean by "bailout." Let's leave that to the politicians to debate and just say that the government won't put any money into this. Although the Treasury Department is spearheading the effort, private industry groups -- from lenders to Wall Street firms -- are footing the bill, largely because it's in their interest to do so. The cost of renegotiating loan terms, for example, is less than the cost associated with a foreclosure.

Q: So who will pay the tab?

A: Investors, for starters. Those holding complex mortgage-related securities will get a smaller return because the freeze lowers expected monthly payments. These investors range from mutual funds to pension funds to overseas hedge funds. That won't sit well with many of them, meaning that shareholder lawsuits are likely to emerge. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson describes the litigation risk as "manageable."

Q: Why is the government doing this?

A: Two main reasons. The first is an economic one. The administration and many others worry that the mortgage mess will hurt the economy. They want to do "just enough" to keep huge numbers of homeowners from foreclosure, short-circuiting a bigger crisis. Still, everyone involved realizes that this plan is no silver bullet. Many think it's the first of several steps that will be necessary. In addition, no one is sure it will do much to alleviate the credit crunch or boost consumer confidence and spending. But it's not insignificant, either.

The second reason is political. Elected officials want to help and to be seen helping. They hope this plan does that. The administration and other Republicans also hope it will keep Democrats from taking more radical action that will involve a much greater government role. But some Republicans -- both officeholders and rank-and-file voters -- are already upset that it goes too far. And many Democrats say much more is needed.

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