Visa Stamps the Dow's 398-Point Slide: Stock Market Today
It's as clear as ever that President Donald Trump and his administration can't (or won't) keep their hands off financial markets.
Fundamentals, for the most part, drove price action on Tuesday as markets seemed to reject modern politics as a foundation for monetary policy. All three main U.S. equity indexes opened slightly higher, but none of them were up at the end of a trading session that was positive for other reasons.
The economic calendar brought some comfort this morning: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said before the opening bell that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 0.3% compared to November, while core CPI increased by 0.2%. Year-over-year CPI was 2.7%.
According to the Schwab Center for Financial Research, "CPI was uneventful in December, with headline coming in as expected and core a touch lighter than expected." Still, incoming data underscore the "post-pandemic theme of a higher floor for prices," with the Schwab Center noting "some stickiness around the upper 2% range."
From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance
Become a smarter, better informed investor. Subscribe from just $107.88 $24.99, plus get up to 4 Special Issues
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Looking for more timely stock market news to help gauge the health of your portfolio? Sign up for Closing Bell, our free newsletter that's delivered straight to your inbox at the close of each trading day.
Visa (V, -4.4%) was a major drag as 14 of the 30 Dow Jones stocks closed in the red. The credit card company and its main competitor, Mastercard (MA, -3.8%), were already threatened by President Donald Trump's recent proposal to cap credit-card interest rates at 10% for one year.
V and MA declined Tuesday after the president talked about a new Credit Card Competition Act that would mandate a choice for merchants of alternative and lower-cost credit-card routing options.
All about EPS
Stocks were in the red today, led there by financials, consumer discretionary stocks, health care and technology. But the earnings calendar offers potential fuel for more upside, according to John Butters of FactSet, who asks and answers a key question.
"Given concerns in the market about inflation and tariffs," the analyst wonders, "did analysts lower EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the fourth quarter? The answer is no." As Butters details, analysts increased earnings-per-share estimates by an aggregate 0.5% to $70.50 from $70.16 during the fourth quarter.
"In a typical quarter, analysts usually reduce earnings estimates during the quarter," Butters says. The average decline in the earnings-per-share estimate over the past 20 quarters, or five years, is 1.6%. Over 10 years, it's 3.1%. Indeed, as Butters concludes, this is the second straight three-month period where analysts have raised aggregate EPS estimates during the quarter.
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note declined to 3.526%, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down to 4.175%. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was firmer too, rising from 98.86 on Monday to 99.14.
By the closing bell, the Nasdaq Composite was off 0.1% at 23,709, the S&P 500 had shed 0.2% to 6,963, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.8% at 49,192.
Jamie Dimon for the Fed…
"Everyone we know believes in Fed independence, and so do we," JPMorgan Chase (JPM, -3.8%) CEO Jamie Dimon said during a conference call to discuss fourth-quarter earnings for one of the most important financial stocks in the world on Tuesday morning.
"Anything that chips away at that is probably not a great idea," Dimon explained. "And, in my view, it will have the reverse consequences. It will raise inflation expectations and probably increase interest rates over time."
Dimon's bank reported earnings of $4.63 per share (-3.7% year over year), missing a consensus forecast for EPS of $4.85, on revenue of $45.80 billion (+7.1% YoY).
Support for the Fed and Powell extends beyond the class of "too big to fail" CEOs. "We stand in full solidarity with the Federal Reserve System and its Chair Jerome H. Powell," European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and eight other top central bankers said in a joint statement on Tuesday.
"The independence of central banks is a cornerstone of price, financial and economic stability in the interest of the citizens that we serve," they write. "It is therefore critical to preserve that independence, with full respect for the rule of law and democratic accountability."
Top central bankers in Sweden, Switzerland, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Australia, South Korea and Brazil, as well as the chair and the general manager of the Bank for International Settlements, also signed the letter.
INTC and AMD surge on upgrades
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, +6.4%) and Intel (INTC, +7.3%) were up on Tuesday even though tech stocks as a group were down after the chipmakers earned upgrades from KeyBanc analyst John Vinh.
The analyst now rates both semiconductor stocks Overweight (Buy). According to Vinh, AMD and Intel have sold their respective server CPU inventory for 2026 in another positive sign for the AI boom.
Vinh's $60 12-month target price for INTC is one of the highest among Wall Street analysts who cover the stock. "Our checks indicate Intel is almost sold out for the year in server CPU," the analyst observes, noting that management is considering a 10% to 15% price increase.
Vinh forecast growth of more than 50% for AMD's server CPU revenue, also supported by price increases. The analyst says he's seeing strong demand for AMD's MI335 in the first half and a "significant ramp" for MI455 in the second half. Vinh's 12-month target price for AMD is $270.
Related content
- Is It Too Late to Invest in Bitcoin?
- The Best Closed-End Funds (CEFs) to Buy Now
- 5 Stocks to Buy for a Trump Presidency
-
State Tax Changes 2026: Is Your State Cutting (or Raising) Taxes This Year?Tax Changes As a new year begins, taxpayers across the country are navigating a new round of state tax changes.
-
Who Said That? Match the US President to the QuotationWho better to give advice on aging, retirement and finances than a U.S. president? Our short quiz will determine whether you're a history buff or buffoon.
-
When Do W-2s Arrive? 2026 Deadline and 'Big Beautiful Bill' ChangesTax Deadlines Mark your calendar: Feb 2 is the big W-2 release date. Here’s the delivery scoop and what the Trump tax changes might mean for your taxes.
-
The December CPI Report Is Out. Here's What It Means for the Fed's Next MoveThe December CPI report came in lighter than expected, but housing costs remain an overhang.
-
The Paradox Between Money and Wealth: How Do You Find the Balance?Wealth reflects a life organized around relationships, health, contribution and time — qualities that compound differently than money in a mutual fund.
-
Billed 12 Hours for a Few Seconds of Work: How AI Is Helping Law Firms Overcharge ClientsThe ability of AI to reduce the time required for certain legal tasks is exposing the legal profession's reliance on the billable hour.
-
General Partner Stakes: Why Investors Are Buying Into the Business of Private EquityGP stakes in asset management firms offer exposure to private markets and are no longer just for the wealthy. Find out why it looks like a good year to invest.
-
Stocks Climb Wall of Worry to Hit New Highs: Stock Market TodayThe Trump administration's threats to Fed independence and bank profitability did little to stop the bulls on Monday.
-
How Worried Should Investors Be About a Jerome Powell Investigation?The Justice Department served subpoenas on the Fed about a project to remodel the central bank's historic buildings.
-
5 Golden Rules We (Re)learned in 2025 About InvestingSome investing rules are timeless, and 2025 provided plenty of evidence demonstrating why they're useful. Here's a reminder of what we (re)learned.
-
I'm a Financial Adviser: Here's How to Earn a Fistful of Interest on Your Cash in 2026 (Just Watch Out for the Taxes)Is your cash earning very little interest? With rates dropping below 4%, now is the time to lock in your cash strategy. Just watch out for the tax implications.
