Stocks kicked off the start of a big next couple of days of economic news with a merger Monday.
Market participants entered the week on a cautious note, as the next two days could give them clues as to when the Federal Reserve might first start cutting interest rates in 2024. A data-dependent central bank will certainly take tomorrow's CPI Report – a reading on consumer inflation – at least partially into account as it formulates policy.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Nowcast predicts headline inflation in November to increase by 3.1%, down from the 3.2% rate seen in the October CPI report. On a monthly basis, November inflation is forecast to rise 0.05%, or up slightly from an unchanged reading the prior month.
From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance
Become a smarter, better informed investor. Subscribe from just $107.88 $24.99, plus get up to 4 Special Issues
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
November's core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to increase 4.1% annually and 0.3% on a monthly basis. October's core CPI rose 4.0% year-over-year and 0.2% on a monthly basis.
Speaking of monetary policy, the next Fed meeting wraps up Wednesday. The Fed's rate-setting committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), is almost certainly going to keep the short-term federal funds rate unchanged at a 22-year high.
What market participants are really looking for are clues as to when the FOMC will pivot to rate cuts. Interest rate traders currently assign a 40% probability to a quarter-point rate cut in March 2024, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
On Sunday, Goldman Sachs said it expects the Fed to begin cutting rates in the third quarter of 2024.
Macy's pops on buyout bid
Equities also got a kick out of some good old fashioned mergers and acquisitions news.
Occidental Petroleum (OXY), which is one the largest holdings in Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway stock portfolio, continued the theme of consolidation in the oil patch on Monday.
OXY bought closely held U.S. shale oil producer CrownRock in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $12 billion including debt. The move comes amid a spate of energy sector deals, including Exxon Mobil's (XOM) $60 billion bid for Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) and Hess's acquisition by Chevron (CVX), a Dow Jones stock, for $53 billion.
In more consumer-facing M&A news, shares in Macy's (M) closed up 19% after The Wall Street Journal reported a group of investors offered $5.8 billion to buy out the iconic department store operator. The group intends to take Macy's private.
As for the major indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.4% to 36,404, the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 4,622, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2% to 14,432.
Related content
- Comcast To Hike Prices By 3% Next Year
- The Earnings Recession Is Over
- The Wash Sale Rule: Six Things You Need to Know
-
Original Medicare vs Medicare Advantage Quiz: Which is Right for You?Quiz Take this quick quiz to discover your "Medicare Personality Type" and learn whether you are a Traditionalist, or a Bundler.
-
Ask the Editor: Capital Gains and Tax PlanningAsk the Editor In this week's Ask the Editor Q&A, Joy Taylor answers questions on capital gains tax rates and end-of-year tax planning
-
Time Is Running Out to Make the Best Tax Moves for 2025Don't wait until January — investors, including those with a high net worth, can snag big tax savings for 2025 (and 2026) with these strategies.
-
Small Caps Hit a New High on Rate-Cut Hope: Stock Market TodayOdds for a December rate cut remain high after the latest batch of jobs data, which helped the Russell 2000 outperform today.
-
UNH Sparks a 408-Point Surge for the Dow: Stock Market TodayThe best available data right now confirm both a slowing employment market and a December rate cut, a tension reflected at the equity index level.
-
Stocks Bounce Back With Tech-Led Gains: Stock Market TodayEarnings and guidance from tech stocks and an old-school industrial lifted all three main U.S. equity indexes back into positive territory.
-
Dow Slides 427 Points to Open December: Stock Market TodayThe final month of 2025 begins on a negative note after stocks ended November with a startling rally.
-
If You'd Put $1,000 Into Coca-Cola Stock 20 Years Ago, Here's What You'd Have TodayEven with its reliable dividend growth and generous stock buybacks, Coca-Cola has underperformed the broad market in the long term.
-
If You Put $1,000 into Qualcomm Stock 20 Years Ago, Here's What You Would Have TodayQualcomm stock has been a big disappointment for truly long-term investors.
-
Stocks Extend Win Streak on Black Friday: Stock Market TodayThe main indexes notched wins in Friday's shortened session, with the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average closing higher on the month.
-
Dow Adds 314 Points to Thanksgiving Rally: Stock Market TodayInvestors, traders and speculators enjoy the best Thanksgiving Week gains for the major stock market indexes in more than a decade.
