Dow Loses 821 Points to Open Nvidia Week: Stock Market Today

Stock market down on a black background.

AI disruption has given way to more uncertainty about rules for global trade, even as the leader of an economy-reshaping artificial intelligence revolution prepares to reveal its latest results and its updated vision for the short and long term later this week. Whether it's Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's or President Donald Trump's world is a question investors, traders and speculators seem stuck on, at least for today.

On Friday, the Supreme Court invalidated President Donald Trump's tariffs levied last year under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), subjecting an estimated $175 billion to potential refund. President Trump subsequently announced a new 10% tariff on all countries, and then raised it to 15% over the weekend.

"The decision is causing some international confusion with our trading partners," Capital Wealth Planning observes. "The European Union has frozen the ratification process of its new agreement with Washington, India is postponing its trip to the U.S. for further trade talks, and some countries like the United Kingdom now fall under a higher global tariff rate than under the now-defunct scheme."

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Financial stocks led the way lower, though only five of 11 sectors closed in the red. American Express (AXP, -7.2%) was one of the worst-performing Dow Jones stocks, ahead of only International Business Machines (IBM, -13.1%), while Visa (V, -4.6%), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, -4.2%) and Goldman Sachs (GS, -3.2%) also dragged the price-weighted blue-chip index lower.

A report from Citrini Research released on Sunday posed a hypothetical scenario suggesting AI agents will be able to eliminate transaction fees charged by payments processors, including Amex and Visa, over the next several years, among other disruptions to the broader economy.

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The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the market's "fear index," spiked as high as 22.04 from 19.09 on Friday. The Russell 2000, an index of small-cap stocks considered more susceptible than bigger names to tariff-related uncertainty, was down as much as 2.4%.

At the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.7% to 48,804, the broad-based S&P 500 had lost 1.0% at 6,837, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was off 1.1% to 22,627.

It's Nvidia Week

Nvidia (NVDA, +0.9%) is the biggest name on the earnings calendar this week, as the debate about whether we're in an AI boom or an AI bubble continues to create and consume market value so far in 2026.

"We fully expect the leading supplier of AI silicon will exceed estimates and guide above Street given continued positive data points through CQ4 as well as seemingly healthy spending setup through 2026," Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson writes, citing solid customer spending patterns.

"Hyperscale capex forecasts for CY2026 have exceeded prior expectations," Bryson explains, "with Amazon guiding to 50% spending growth, Meta closer to 75% growth at the midpoint and Alphabet looking for spend to increase as much as 100%."

The analyst reiterated Wedbush's Outperform (Buy) rating and its $230 12-month target price. "We remain constructive on NVDA," Bryson concludes, "and see upside to our current expectations."

We're following the market's most important quarterly event on our live Nvidia earnings blog.

PYPL is in play

PayPal Holdings (PYPL, +5.8%) surged on Monday on a report the fintech pioneer co-founded by Elon Musk is the subject of takeover talk after a slide of more than 40% over the past six months. Potential for a "buy now, pay later" market that could get as big as $37 billion hasn't lifted PYPL stock.

According to Bloomberg, "The San Jose, California-based company has fielded meetings with banks amid unsolicited interest from suitors." At least one is considering a bid for the whole company, while others are looking at certain PayPal assets.

Board Chair Enrique Lores will take over for Alex Chriss as CEO on March 1. Management "characterized the change as execution-driven rather than a strategic reset," Susquehanna analyst Jamie Friedman wrote in a post-earnings note.

"Lores was actively involved in shaping the current strategy and 2026 guidance," Friedman explained, "and the company positioned the transition as a move to accelerate disciplined execution." Broader factors posed in the Citrini Research report may have forced a reset of incoming management's priorities.

About bouncy biotech stocks

Arcellx (ACLX, +77.4%) had its best day ever after Gilead Sciences (GILD, -1.0%) said it would buy the clinical-stage biotechnology company for $7.8 billion.

The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB, +0.4%), the first and still the biggest of the best biotech ETFs to buy, is built to capture that kind of upside for you while mitigating the impact on your portfolio of the industry's inherent boom-and-bust nature.

Often double- and triple-digit upside moves are catalyzed by major technological advances or positive results in clinical-stage testing. Sometimes a bigger health care stock identifies a gap in its venture portfolio and sees a way to fill it with a mergers-and-acquisitions move (M&A).

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are built to help you capture a lot of the potential upside while doing little or none of the legwork required to understand the science or M&A mechanics.

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David Dittman is the former managing editor and chief investment strategist of Utility Forecaster, which was named one of "10 investment newsletters to read besides Buffett's" in 2015. A graduate of the University of California, San Diego, and the Villanova University School of Law, and a former stockbroker, David has been working in financial media for more than 20 years.