The September Fed meeting kicks off this Tuesday and concludes on Wednesday with the central bank's latest policy decision.
With the labor market steady and energy prices keeping inflation elevated, it's widely expected that the Federal Reserve will vote to raise the federal funds rate for the first time since 2023.
Wall Street will also tune into the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and "dot plot" to see where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects interest rates and inflation to be over the next year or so, and Chair Warsh's post-meeting press conference.
The Kiplinger team is reporting live on the September Fed meeting, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what it could mean for the economy. Scroll for the latest updates.
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Will Kevin Warsh support a rate hike?
"Fed Chair Kevin Warsh finds himself caught between a rock and a hard place heading into this week's FOMC meeting," says Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. "The economic data increasingly argues for a rate hike. The market overwhelmingly expects one. Several of his colleagues appear ready to vote for one."
But the question, Woods says, is whether Warsh will support a rate hike if the committee votes for one.
In July, the Fed's decision to hold rates steady was split one, with three members — Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan — voting to raise rates by a quarter-percentage point.
The August jobs report quieted concerns that the labor market is in dire straits, while the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports showed that inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target.
But Woods says that Warsh could cite core CPI in arguments to hold rates steady again, as the year-over-year increase slowed to 2.4% in August from 2.5% in July.
Given that Warsh said in his Jackson Hole speech that the Fed should focus more on trends than isolated data points, Woods believes "this could be his one last line of defense and go against a growing chorus and odds that there is a hike."
- Karee Venema
Fed meeting schedule for 2026
The next Fed meeting, which runs from September 15 through 16, marks the sixth gathering of 2026.
"The committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks," writes Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows in his feature, "When Is the Next Fed Meeting?".
The Federal Open Market Committee "is required to meet at least four times a year and may convene additional meetings if necessary," Burrows adds, noting that "the convention of meeting eight times per year dates back to the market stresses of 1981."
Fed meetings last two days and wrap up with the release of a policy decision at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time. This is typically followed by the Fed chair's press conference at 2:30 pm, though this could change under Warsh's leadership.
Here is the full remaining Fed meeting schedule for 2026:
- September 15 to 16
- October 27 to 28
- December 8 to 9
- Karee Venema
Stocks trade lower to start Fed week; oil prices spike
The stock market is in negative territory Monday as the tech sector sinks on worries that artificial intelligence (AI) technology has advanced too far, too fast. At last check, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down 0.8% at 26,129, the broader S&P 500 is off 0.6% at 7,607, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is 0.4% lower at 52,369.
Tech stocks that have a hand in AI are some of the biggest decliners, including chipmakers Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, -5.7%), Intel (INTC, -5.4%) and Nvidia (NVDA, -5.7%), and AI infrastructure providers Nebius Group (NBIS, -5.2%) and Vertiv Holdings (VRT, -7.8%).
This deepens losses in the main indexes since the start of the month, driven in part by rising energy prices from the ongoing war in Iran. "The backdrop has become increasingly uncomfortable for equities with oil surging again, bond yields remaining elevated and markets anticipating potential rate hikes from both the Fed and Bank of Japan this week," says Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. "Oil is once again the biggest geopolitical story."
Today, front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures are up 3.2% at $103.29 per barrel, and have now gained 20% for the month to date.
- Karee Venema
With over a decade of experience writing about the stock market, Karee Venema is the senior investing editor at Kiplinger.com. She joined the publication in April 2021, and oversees a wide range of investing coverage, including content focused on equities, fixed income, mutual funds, ETFs, macroeconomics and more.