Latest Inflation Data Keeps 2027 Social Security COLA Forecast Steady

The outlook for 2027 Social Security benefits stabilized in June. The latest 2027 Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) projection is forecasts at 3.8%, the same as the previous estimate in May, according to the latest data from the Senior Citizens League.

In May 2026, the average monthly Social Security benefit for retired workers stood at $2,082.76, according to the May Monthly Statistical Snapshot from the Social Security Administration (SSA). The average monthly benefit would increase to $2,161.90, a rise of $79.14, when factoring in a projected 3.8% COLA.

We are less than four months out until the official COLA announcement that typically happens in mid-October. A lot can happen until then. We'll be updating this article monthly following the release of new CPI numbers and any changes in the forecast.

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The new 2027 COLA projection

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) is predicting a 3.8% COLA for 2027. If this projection holds, it would result in an average monthly increase of approximately $79.14 for retired workers. This would raise the average monthly benefit check from the current $2,082.76 to $2,161.90.

How the projection has changed. June's estimate is the same as May. Just two months ago, the projection jumped from 2.8% to 3.9%. If inflation continues June's downward trend, we might see the projected rate fall before the official number is released in October.

Projected COLA data from The Senior Citizens League. *Their chart shows the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.9%; the difference may be due to rounding. We updated the chart to show the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) number that pegged the increase at 3.8% (PDF).

Why the 2027 COLA projection remains high

High costs for food and energy continue to put pressure on the economic indicators. TSCL noted that for many retirees, these essential expenses are rising faster than the rest of the economy.

“For retirees living on fixed incomes, the costs that matter most, especially healthcare, housing, utilities and insurance, continue to rise faster than prices in the rest of the economy, silently wrenching seniors dry. This makes the national affordability conversation even more important than ever,” said Shannon Benton, executive director of The Senior Citizens League.

The June CPI showed that "the index for energy fell 5.7 percent in June," and "was the largest contributor to the monthly all items decrease, more than offsetting increases in other indexes including those for shelter and food," according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The index for food at home and the index for food away from home both increased 0.2%.

In TSCL's study 2026 Loss of Buying Power, the league notes that "compared to 2016, Social Security benefits are only worth about 86.3 cents on the dollar," citing COLAs that are too small to keep up with costs. They estimate that "payments would need to rise by 15.7 percent, or $295.85 per month for the average beneficiary, to recover the lost value."

Medicare costs will also go up in 2027

Medicare premiums are usually deducted from monthly Social Security checks. For most, the benefits of the annual COLA increase is blunted by increased Part B and Part D premiums.

The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report (PDF) projects a steady increase in Medicare Part B premiums and IRMAA surcharges in the next eight years. The projections are based on expected rises in healthcare costs, particularly for outpatient hospital services and physician-administered drugs.

The report estimates that the standard monthly premium for Medicare Part B will potentially reach $360.60 by 2035. If the estimates are accurate, the Part B premium is expected to increase by 77.7% by 2035 compared to the 2026 level of $202.90.

This table shows the projected standard monthly premiums for 2027:

The Part D deductible ($700) and Part D catastrophic threshold ($2,400) for 2027 have been finalized.

Read:

Projected 2027 IRMAA Brackets and Surcharges for Medicare Part B and D

How you can increase your monthly Social Security benefits

One way to increase your monthly Social Security benefit is to delay claiming your check until age 70. You receive an extra 2/3 of 1% for each month you delay after your birthday month, and you can further increase your benefit up to 8% for each full year you wait until age 70.

If you wait until 70, your monthly benefit is 24% to 28% higher than if you started to collect benefits at your full retirement age (FRA).

Collecting benefits before your FRA can lead to a permanent decrease in your benefits. If you were born in 1960 or later, taking benefits at 62 would reduce your check by 30%, and spousal benefits would be reduced by 27.5% to 35%.

Related Content

• 2026 Social Security COLA is 2.8%: What You Need to Know
• When Will Social Security Run Out of Money? And Medicare?
• What You Will Pay for Medicare in 2026
• Medicare 2027 Projections: Here's How Much Your Monthly Premiums Are Estimated to Rise
• Your Medicare Costs Are Set to Soar: What to Expect Over the Next Decade
• Projected 2027 IRMAA Brackets and Surcharges for Medicare Part B and D