Latest Inflation Data Keeps 2027 Social Security COLA Forecast High
As inflation persists, the 2027 Social Security COLA forecast has dropped slightly to 3.8% — a 0.1% decrease compared to the April estimate.
After months of relative stability, the outlook for Social Security benefits has taken a sharp upward turn. The 2027 Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) projection has surged to a forecasted 3.8%, down 0.1% from its previous estimate of 3.9%, according to the latest data from the Senior Citizens League. This shift highlights a volatile economic landscape where persistent inflation continues to drive up essential costs for older Americans.
In April 2026, the average Social Security benefit for retired workers stood at $2,081.16, according to the April Monthly Statistical Snapshot from the Social Security Administration (SSA). The average monthly benefit would increase to $2160.24, a rise of $79.08, factoring in a projected 3.8% COLA.
We are about five months out until the official COLA announcement that typically happens in mid-October. A lot can happen until then. We'll be updating this article monthly to account for the new CPI numbers and any changes in the forecast.
From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance
Become a smarter, better informed investor. Subscribe from just $107.88 $24.99, plus get up to 4 Special Issues
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
The new 2027 COLA projection
The Senior Citizens League is now predicting a 3.8% COLA for 2027. If this projection holds, it would result in an average monthly increase of approximately $79.08 for retired workers. This would raise the average monthly benefit check from the current $2,081.16 to $2160.24.
How the projection has changed. The estimate has seen a small drop of 0.1%. Just a month ago, the projection had jumped from 2.8% to 3.9%. This new 3.8% forecast represents a 0.1% decrease from last month's estimate of 3.9%.
| Row 0 - Cell 0 | COLA | CPI-W |
January | 2.8% | 2.2% |
February | 2.8% | 2.2% |
March | 2.8% | 3.3% |
April | 3.9% | 3.8%* |
May | 3.8% | 4.4% |
Projected COLA data from The Senior Citizens League. *Their chart shows the CPI at 3.9%; the difference may be due to rounding. We updated the chart to show the BLS number that pegged the increase at 3.8%.
Why the 2027 COLA projection is increasing
High costs for housing, utilities and energy continue to put pressure on the economic indicators. TSCL noted that for many retirees, these essential expenses are rising faster than the rest of the economy.
“For retirees living on fixed incomes, the costs that matter most, especially healthcare, housing, utilities, and insurance, continue to rise faster than prices in the rest of the economy, silently wrenching seniors dry. This makes the national affordability conversation even more important than ever,” said Shannon Benton, Executive Director of The Senior Citizens League.
The May CPI showed that "the index for energy rose 3.9% in May," and "accounted for over 60 percent of the monthly all items increase," according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Historically, higher oil prices coincide with rising food prices and broader consumer inflation. As transportation costs for goods increase, those expenses are passed on to consumers at grocery stores and retail outlets.
The TSCL's study, 2026 Loss of Buying Power, asserts that "compared to 2016, Social Security benefits are only worth about 86.3 cents on the dollar," citing COLAs that are too small to keep up with costs. They estimate that "payments would need to rise by 15.7 percent, or $295.85 per month for the average beneficiary, to recover the lost value."
Medicare costs will also go up in 2027
Medicare premiums are usually deducted from monthly Social Security checks. So, for most, the benefits of the annual COLA increase is blunted by increased Part B and Part D premiums.
The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects a steady increase in Medicare Part B premiums and IRMAA surcharges over the next eight years. The projections are based on expected rises in healthcare costs, particularly for outpatient hospital services and physician-administered drugs.
The report estimates that the standard monthly premium for Medicare Part B will potentially reach $360.60 by 2035. If the estimates are accurate, the Part B premium is expected to increase by 77.7% by 2035 compared to the 2026 level of $202.90.
Here is a table with the projected standard monthly premiums for 2027:
2027-Projected premiums and deductibles | 2026- Current premiums & deductibles | |
Part A deductible | $1,788 | $1,736 |
Part B deductible | $292 | $283 |
Part B premium | $209.50 | $202.90 |
Part D base premium | $41.33 | $38.99 |
Part D deductible | $700* | $615 |
The Part D deductible ($700) and Part D catastrophic threshold ($2,400) for 2027 have been finalized.
How you can increase your monthly Social Security benefits
One way to increase your monthly Social Security benefit is to delay claiming your check until age 70. You receive an extra 2/3 of 1% for each month you delay after your birthday month, and you can further increase your benefit up to 8% for each full year you wait until age 70. If you wait until 70, your monthly benefit is 24% to 28% higher than if you started to collect benefits at your full retirement age (FRA).
Collecting benefits before your FRA can lead to a permanent decrease in your benefits. If you were born in 1960 or later, taking benefits at 62 would reduce your check by 30%, and spousal benefits would be reduced by 27.5% to 35%.
Related Content
- 2026 Social Security COLA is 2.8%: What You Need to Know
- What's My Social Security Full Retirement Age?
- When Will Social Security Run Out of Money? And Medicare?
- What You Will Pay for Medicare in 2026
- Projected 2027 IRMAA Brackets and Surcharges for Medicare Part B and D
- Your Medicare Costs Are Set to Soar: What to Expect Over the Next Decade
