Strong April Jobs Report Lowers Rate-Cut Hopes: What the Experts Are Saying

The April jobs report came in stronger than expected, underscoring a slowing but still healthy labor market. While this is good news for the Fed, which has repeatedly said it is in no rush to cut interest rates, the heightened uncertainty from President Donald Trump's trade war has many pushing the central bank to act sooner rather than later.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls rose by 177,000 in April. This was lower than March's downwardly revised 185,000 figure but more than the 133,000 new jobs economists expected. February jobs growth was also lowered, by 15,000.

Job gains in April were seen across the health care (+51,000), transportation and warehousing industries (+29,000), and financial activities (+14,000). However, government employment declined by 9,000, and is now down by 26,000 since January.

Subscribe to Kiplinger’s Personal Finance

Be a smarter, better informed investor.

Save up to 74%

Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters

Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.

Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.

Sign up

The unemployment rate, which is calculated from a separate survey, remained at 4.2%.

The data also showed that wage growth was up 0.2% month over month in April and 3.8% year over year.

The April jobs report "underscores resilience in the U.S. economy," says Joe Gaffoglio, CEO and president at Mutual Of America Capital Management, "but cracks have been forming. Job openings continue to decline, and steady quit rates suggest workers are growing less confident about jumping to new roles."

Gaffoglio notes that the ongoing job market momentum will be closely watched going forward, "given the more cautious stance by both companies and workers."

And "despite growing economic headwinds, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled he was in no rush to cut rates, with inflation above the Fed's target and a labor market that's holding firm, at least for now."

Market participants have resigned themselves to lowered rate-cut expectations too. According to CME FedWatch, futures traders are pricing in a 99% chance the Fed keeps the federal funds rate unchanged when it meets next week. And odds of a June rate cut are now at 46% – down from 55% one day ago.

With the April jobs report now in the books, here's some of what economists, strategists and other experts around Wall Street have to say about the results and what they could mean for investors going forward.

Experts' takes on the April jobs report

"With today's jobs report soundly beating expectations, we can all see hiring hasn't hit the brakes – but it has downshifted one gear lower. We've seen price pressures ease in talent attraction costs in recent months, which means there's more balance between supply and demand in the labor market. Right now, companies are taking a measured wait-and-see approach in response to recent market volatility and the threat of tariffs. And even in cases where companies have slowed hiring in the immediate term, they aren't changing their overall hiring and growth plans – they're delaying them temporarily." – Adam Stafford, CEO of Recruitics

"Strong jobs data puts a spring in the Fed's step. Despite an increasingly uncertain economic backdrop, the U.S. labor market remained resilient in April with employment surprising to the upside and the unemployment rate remaining steady. In the here and now, solid labor market data provides the Fed with scope for patience. With the forward-looking outlook having deteriorated, however, today's data feels somewhat backward-looking and the risks remain that a weakening economy could see the Fed resume its easing cycle later in the year." – Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management

"Today's jobs report is a biggie. Over the last few weeks, we've seen the first indicators in the labor market that uncertainty created by global trade policy has started to impact frontline workers. The number of shifts being worked at U.S. businesses once again grew, though at a slightly slower rate than we've seen the last couple of months. Today's data comes as a pretty big surprise, as businesses simply weren’t expected to hire at this rate, especially to meet a very short-term spike in demand as everyone prepares for an uncertain future." – Dr. Edward Hearn, Ph.D., lead economist at UKG

"Markets breathed a sigh of relief this morning as the jobs data came in better than expected. We've already seen how financial markets will react if the administration moves forward with its initial tariff plan, so unless they take a different tack in July when the 90-day pause expires, we will see market action similar to the first week of April. If adjustments can be made and the new approach is more nuanced, with exemptions for activity that leads to the administration's ultimate goals and more reasonable tariff levels, then the real economy can re-adjust and markets will take it in stride, however, we aren't out of the woods yet, because it's unclear how much different the U.S. trade approach will be in the second half of 2025 versus what we've seen year to date." – Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Northlight Asset Management

"April's job figures defied expectations of economic frailty following a negative Q1 GDP report. However, with the negative GDP largely due to a surge in imports and reduced government spending, this print indicates potential ongoing discrepancies between hard and soft data. Unfortunately for those wanting lower rates, this beat will make it hard to see the Fed pushing cuts up earlier in the year. Fixed-income markets are adjusting back to the higher for longer narrative. For investors, remaining invested in quality companies and looking for risk-adjusted spreads should be a priority. Only trade resolutions will stabilize markets, staying invested remains the mantra in the meantime." – Lara Castleton, U.S. Head of Portfolio Construction and Strategy (PCS) at Janus Henderson Investors

"The April jobs report shows that the labor market was on solid footing as trade war tensions became more disruptive early last month. The data for this release was collected during the week following Liberation Day, meaning it would be too soon to expect substantial fallout to emerge just as higher tariffs were being implemented. As a result, investors are likely to look through this positive print, viewing it as a 'calm before the storm' with strength being downplayed given the known headwinds that the labor market will be facing in the coming months." – Jeff Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments

"No signs of tariff stress in the labor market yet – strong hiring and stable wages. If you are going to embark on a trade war and your economy is consumption-based, this is the leverage you want." – Jamie Cox, Managing Partner for Harris Financial Group

"Although markets had braced for a slowdown in job growth – due to factors like DOGE job cuts, increased immigration reform, and soft economic indicators – private sector hiring has remained resilient. The stronger-than-expected employment figure gives the administration more breathing room in its trade negotiations, as risk assets are likely to respond favorably. However, with the unemployment rate holding steady, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to shift its current policy stance in the near term." – Kevin O'Neil, Associate Portfolio Manager & Senior Research Analyst for Brandywine Global

Related content

• Kiplinger's Economic Calendar for This Week
• Earnings Calendar and Analysis for This Week
• When Is the Next Fed Meeting?