Once-Booming Gun Sales Have Slumped: The Kiplinger Letter

To help you understand changes in gun sales and consumer purchases nationwide, and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…

Once-booming personal firearm purchases continue to cool down from pandemic highs. In 2020, consumers bought nearly 40 million guns amid a series of urban riots and an uptick in crime. But in the years since then, FBI background checks, a close proxy for gun purchases, have slumped since the spring and were down 15% year-over-year in the third quarter. If the trend persists, firearm background checks for 2023 will reach their lowest level since 2019.

Background checks were also down 18.7% in 2022 compared with the previous year. Most likely, consumers are tapped out. Those who want a gun now own one. Illinois has led the nation in background checks so far this year, with 3.2 million, followed closely by Kentucky with 2.9 million, then Texas with 1.2 million and California with 1 million. 

Some 26 states on the Gifford Law Center’s Annual Gun Law Scorecard, received an F, the lowest possible grade, for loopholes in the federal background check law. These states include Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Louisiana, and Montana, among others.  

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This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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