The concept of “investing success,” as it often appears in the media, is a tangled web to me. Every time I read something about the topic, I can’t help but feel that the authors are confusing two very different efforts: investment success and investor success.
Yes, this is nuanced, but yes, it matters. Too often, investment success is defined in either absolute or relative returns (which is another nuance for another time). While I understand why a portfolio manager would focus on higher returns, I’d argue that this shouldn’t be the benchmark for success for the typical investor. Instead, they should be focused on building the wealth they need to fulfill the objectives that matter most to them. Wealth is measured in dollars, not percents.
Your Savings Rate Is a Huge Factor in Your Success as an Investor
Sure, better returns build more wealth faster, but higher returns are not essential to building wealth. Investing is a partnership between an investor and the markets, where an investor provides the capital and the markets provide the prospects for a return on that capital. Understanding this relationship introduces a most important point for building wealth — capital contributions.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
A portfolio’s value can grow through both capital contributions and the return on capital, but only one part of this equation can grow wealth reliably: our capital contributions, or more generally, our savings. It’s our contribution to our own investment success and importantly, unlike the investment returns we seek, its benefits are both more certain and within our control.
Contributing More to Savings vs. Taking More Risk
As illustrated in the figure below, moving from a more conservative asset allocation (50% stocks/50% bonds) to a more aggressive one (80% stocks/20% bonds) tends to widen the range of expected outcomes. At any asset allocation choice, higher savings levels contribute to higher best, worst, and median expected outcomes, due to the higher levels of capital contributions.
What is often overlooked, however, is that higher levels of capital contributions allow investors to improve their expected outcomes not only relative to the same asset allocation, but also relative to a higher risk allocation. For example, for the 50% stocks/50% bonds portfolio, a 6% contribution rate provides a better range of total potential outcomes than a 4% savings rate for the same asset allocation and for the majority of expected outcomes in even riskier allocations.
Higher returns are welcomed, but they are a less reliable source of asset growth and wealth creation.
A most extreme version of this scenario played itself out on the national stage when the Powerball lottery offered a $1 billion-plus jackpot. While the lottery gave a player a chance for a fabulous return on their $2 ticket, probability-wise, a player’s wealth would increase more certainly if they didn’t play the lottery at all (since they’re most likely to lose their whole “investment” in lottery tickets).
The Bottom Line for Investors
Investing involves tradeoffs, and an important part of the financial planning process is for an investor to define their willingness to forgo spending now to improve their prospects for building wealth that can provide for their future needs. This is critically important, as a higher savings rate provides a higher probability of investor success. This is due to the partial shift in responsibility for building wealth from the less certain returns from risky assets to a more certain stream of capital contributions.
In the end, if an investor is trying to maximize future wealth, we believe a marginally higher savings rate, rather than a substantially higher risk portfolio, will be more likely to lead to investor success.
-
Georgia Could Be Latest State to End Income TaxesState Tax Eliminating the Georgia state income tax: Last-minute summer trend or permanent policy in the Peach State?
-
Biggest Winners and Losers in Trump's New Tax PlanTax Law Trump’s mega tax overhaul, known as the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill,’ has distinct winners and losers. Which group do you fall into?
-
Five Things to Consider Before Rolling Your 401(k) into a Roth IRAConverting at least some of an old 401(k) to a Roth IRA can offer long-term tax benefits and retirement flexibility, especially if you anticipate being in a higher tax bracket later or wish to leave a tax-free legacy.
-
From Dream Apartment to Nightmare: When Your Landlord Evicts You Through No Fault of Your OwnThis is what I suggested a tenant do to get out of her lease after her landlord's inexperience and lack of action made her rental situation unsafe. It's a legal situation called 'constructive eviction.'
-
Six Steps to Being Empowered and On Track: An Expert Financial Guide for WomenWhile most female investors feel on track with their financial goals and empowered by managing their investments, many regret not starting sooner. Here's how you can get started and take control of your financial future.
-
Selling Your Business? This Powerful Insurance Option Unlocks Multigenerational WealthPrivate placement life insurance (PPLI) offers almost unbelievable investment flexibility, estate planning and tax advantages. And it's completely legit.
-
How to Maximize Your Social Security Now That the One Big Beautiful Bill Is LawWhen applying for your Social Security benefits, consider the new enhanced deduction for people age 65 and older, as well as your health, family situation and other financial issues.
-
I'm a Retirement Specialist: This Is How to Keep Your 401(k) on Track Amid Dire News AlertsHistory shows that consistent, disciplined investing far outweighs any attempt at market timing, so focus on long-term growth and tune out the sky-is-falling news headlines.
-
Five Money Moves to Make Before Your First Child Arrives: A Financial GuideI wish I'd known some of these when I was an expectant parent. These important steps include establishing an emergency fund, budgeting for new expenses, securing life insurance and more.
-
Retirement Tax Bombs: How Roth Conversions May Cut the Blue WireIf you have a significant amount in tax-deferred retirement accounts, you could be sitting on a tax time bomb. Luckily, there's a way to defuse the situation.
