Bumpy Road Ahead in 2016 Presidential Race

Trump will get a bounce after the Republican convention, but Clinton is poised to regain ground.

Don’t be surprised if Hillary Clinton trails Donald Trump by a couple of points when the Democratic National Convention starts Monday in Philadelphia. But she’s likely to regain that ground quickly and begin the post-conventions phase of the presidential campaign with a small lead, leaving the race about where it was before Republicans convened in Cleveland.

Back to back conventions, absent the usual week off between them, leave little time for the out-of-power party to build on the bounce in poll numbers a candidate usually gets from what is essentially a four-night prime time commercial. One good example of this: 2012. President Obama held a four-point advantage over Mitt Romney as Romney prepared to claim the nomination at the GOP convention. By the end of that week, Romney had pulled even. But by the time the Democratic coronation ended, Obama was right back where he started, with a four-point lead.

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David Morris
Deputy Managing Editor, The Kiplinger Letter
Morris has covered every presidential election since 1984 and has been based in Washington since 1994. Before joining Kiplinger in 2010, he directed exit polling operations for The Associated Press, was chief White House correspondent for Bloomberg News and was managing editor and executive editor of National Journal's CongressDaily. He was also assistant director of the polling unit for ABC News, worked for three Pennsylvania newspapers and directed AP's bureau in Sacramento, Cal.