Forecasting the future is no easy task. Kiplinger reporters and editors dig deep, leaning on experts in academia and the private sector. We tap our sources in government to understand how regulations will affect emerging technology. Moreover, we look at past and present trends and apply careful, considered judgment to forecast and analyze coming developments.
To help with your decision-making in 2020, here are 5 major developments to look for in the new year. Want to see all 10? You can download them for free here.
1. No Recession
There will be no recession in 2020. But the pace of economic growth will ease. Expect GDP growth of 1.9%, after 2.3% growth in 2019. 2020’s second half is likely to be stronger than the first half, which will be fodder for both political parties as the presidential race draws closer. Democrats will point to a slowing economy when compared with 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, Republicans will note the improvement in the second half of the year.
From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance
Be a smarter, better informed investor.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
2. Trade Tensions
Trade tensions figure to ease next year after a yearlong trade war that set businesses on edge. But they won’t disappear completely, despite the Trump administration’s two trade wins in recent days (China, plus Canada and Mexico). There’s still risk that China won’t keep its promisesand that disagreement over technology issues will heat up. Plus, ongoing disputes with the European Union. The World Trade Organization is sidelined from making rulings, since President Trump refuses to approve the appointment or reappointment of judges to the WTO’s top court
Yours free! GetThe Kiplinger Letter’s complete Top 10 Forecasts for 2020, plus a special report on the business outlook for the four largest U.S. states. Download now, no information required from you.
3. Coal Use Will Continue to Fall
Look for another milestone in the steep decline of the U.S. coal industry. The U.S. will likely see coal use fall to a 45-year low. With more plants slated to shut down in 2020, expect coal consumption to drop to between 550 million and 570 million tons. The last time the country burned so little coal was 1975. That’s about half of the peak hit in 2007, when demand was over 1.1 billion tons. Overseas demand probably can’t make up for falling consumption at home. Exports jumped in 2017 but peaked in 2018 and have since started to pull back.
4. Weed Will Roll On
The movement to legalize weed at the state level will nab key victories. New York and New Jersey are among the best bets to legalize pot in 2020. Both states were on the verge of approving recreational use earlier this year, before debates over how pot should be taxed and how the money should be spent sidelined efforts. Several states will have marijuana ballot initiatives next year. Arizona is poised to approve recreational pot. In Florida, the push for a ballot initiative is gaining momentum. And governors in Rhode Island, Connecticut and New Mexico all support legalizing pot for adult use.
5. GOP Victories
Democrats will hold the House of Representatives, but Republicans will win back seats in November, chipping away at the current 36-seat Democratic edge. Odds favor Republicans holding on to the Senate. Democrats have a shot for pickups in Arizona, Colorado and Maine, and to a lesser degree, North Carolina. Republicans will recapture the Alabama seat Democrat Doug Jones won in a special election in 2017. Democrats need to net four seats to win the majority, and that’s unlikely.
Yours free! Get The Kiplinger Letter's complete Top 10 Forecasts for 2020, plus a special report on the business outlook for the four largest U.S. states. Download now, no information required from you.
-
4 Career Moves to Make Now if You're Worried About a RecessionWorried about a recession? These steps to protect your job prospects will help you professionally whether a downturn develops or not.
-
How StoryCorps Works and How You Can Tell Your StoryStoryCorps has recorded conversations between thousands of people, and anyone can participate. National facilitator Alan Jinich explains how to share your story.
-
What is AI Worth to the Economy?The Letter Spending on AI is already boosting GDP, but will the massive outlays being poured into the technology deliver faster economic growth in the long run?
-
Kiplinger Special Report: Business Costs for 2026Economic Forecasts Fresh forecasts for 2026, to help you plan ahead and prepare a budget on a range of business costs, from Kiplinger's Letters team.
-
How to Adopt AI and Keep Employees Happy
The Kiplinger Letter As business adoption of AI picks up, employee morale could take a hit. But there are ways to avoid an AI backlash.
-
AI-Powered Smart Glasses Set to Make a Bigger SplashThe Kiplinger Letter Meta leads the way with its sleek, fashionable smart glasses, but Apple reportedly plans to join the fray by late 2026. Improved AI will lure more customers.
-
Breaking China's Stranglehold on Rare Earth ElementsThe Letter China is using its near-monopoly on critical minerals to win trade concessions. Can the U.S. find alternate supplies?
-
What New Tariffs Mean for Car ShoppersThe Kiplinger Letter Car deals are growing scarcer. Meanwhile, tax credits for EVs are on the way out, but tax breaks for car loans are coming.
-
AI’s Rapid Rise Sparks New Cyber ThreatsThe Kiplinger Letter Cybersecurity professionals are racing to ward off AI threats while also using AI tools to shore up defenses.
-
Blue Collar Workers Add AI to Their ToolboxesThe Kiplinger Letter AI can’t fix a leak or install lighting, but more and more tradespeople are adopting artificial intelligence for back-office work and other tasks.
