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Economic Forecasts

Pace of Job Growth to Slow

GDP 1.4% growth for the year; a 2% pace in '17 More »
Jobs Hiring slowing to 150K-200K/month by end '16 More »
Interest rates 10-year T-notes at 1.4% by end '16 More »
Inflation 1.5% for '16, 2.5% in '17 More »
Business spending Flat in '16, after drop in '15 More »
Energy Crude oil trading from $40 to $45 per barrel in Sept. More »
Housing Prices up 5% on average in major metro areas More »
Retail sales 4% growth in '16, compared with 4.8% in '15 (excluding gas) More »
Trade deficit Widening 4% in '16, after a 6.2% increase in '15 More »

Look for job growth to gradually retreat into the range of 150,000 to 200,000 jobs per month — versus a strong 255,000 jobs added in July — as the hot employment market of the past few years downshifts to a more sustainable pace.

See Also: All Our Economic Outlooks

Hiring in July was broad-based again in the industries where it has been the most robust for a while: health care, business services, food service, retail, and temporary help. There was also a surge in hiring by educational institutions, which added 22,000 employees last month.

All of the “help wanted” shingles hung out last month induced a number of folks who had left the labor force earlier in the year to reenter it, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.9% — for now. But by the end of next year, we see the rate down to 4.5%.


The tighter labor market is beginning to push up wage rates. Average hourly earnings rose 2.6% from a year ago and are likely to continue to edge upward, hitting 3% sometime next year. Some industries are seeing wages rise even faster: Restaurant worker earnings, for example, are rising at a 4% rate.

Still in short supply: Workers with various technical skills, restaurant and food industry workers, plus construction workers in selected hot metro areas.

SEE ALSO: Best Jobs for the Future

Source: Department of Labor, Employment Data

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