|GDP||1.4% growth for the year; a 2% pace in '17 More »|
|Jobs||Hiring slowing to 150K-200K/month by end '16 More »|
|Interest rates||10-year T-notes at 1.4% by end '16 More »|
|Inflation||1.5% for '16, 2.5% in '17 More »|
|Business spending||Flat in '16, after drop in '15 More »|
|Energy||Crude oil trading from $40 to $45 per barrel in Sept. More »|
|Housing||Prices up 5% on average in major metro areas More »|
|Retail sales||4% growth in '16, compared with 4.8% in '15 (excluding gas) More »|
|Trade deficit||Widening 4% in '16, after a 6.2% increase in '15 More »|
Look for job growth to gradually retreat into the range of 150,000 to 200,000 jobs per month — versus a strong 255,000 jobs added in July — as the hot employment market of the past few years downshifts to a more sustainable pace.
See Also: All Our Economic Outlooks
Hiring in July was broad-based again in the industries where it has been the most robust for a while: health care, business services, food service, retail, and temporary help. There was also a surge in hiring by educational institutions, which added 22,000 employees last month.
All of the “help wanted” shingles hung out last month induced a number of folks who had left the labor force earlier in the year to reenter it, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.9% — for now. But by the end of next year, we see the rate down to 4.5%.
The tighter labor market is beginning to push up wage rates. Average hourly earnings rose 2.6% from a year ago and are likely to continue to edge upward, hitting 3% sometime next year. Some industries are seeing wages rise even faster: Restaurant worker earnings, for example, are rising at a 4% rate.
Still in short supply: Workers with various technical skills, restaurant and food industry workers, plus construction workers in selected hot metro areas.