The Best and Worst Airlines for Holiday Flight Delays and Cancellations
Don't want to risk missing your family for the holidays? Here are the airlines to choose (and the ones to avoid).
December sees a major spike in travel as passengers race to visit family for Christmas, Hanukkah and other major holidays that happen that month. Because of that increased travel demand, December is often (but not always) one of the worst months of the year for flight delays industry wide.
However, one silver lining is that cancellation rates typically (but not always) go down that month. You might have an above average chance of being late getting home to the family, but you're less likely to completely miss the holidays altogether.
But within those industry-wide statistics, some airlines definitely perform better than others. To find out which airlines are most likely to get you home for the holidays on time (and least likely to cancel your flight completely), I compared the on-time performance of eight major airlines for the month of December over the last 10 years. The airlines compared include Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Frontier, JetBlue, Southwest and United.
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Here's what you need to know before booking those holiday flights this year.
The airlines most (and least) likely to cancel your holiday flight
When looking at official data airlines report to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, just two airlines kept their average December cancellation rates below 1% over the last 10 years.
The two airlines with a vanishingly small cancellation rate during that month are American which canceled an average of just 0.75% of its December flights, and United, at 0.97%. Both rates were well below the 10-year industry average of 1.63%.
On the flip side, three airlines stuck out for having significantly higher than average cancellation rates for that month. Alaska's track record was the worst, with an average December cancellation rate of 2.34%, but Southwest (2.29%) and Allegiant (2.25%) weren't far behind.
So, if you want to minimize your risk of not making it to your destination at all, opt for American or United this holiday season.
The airlines most (and least) likely to delay your holiday travel plans
In an ideal world, you'd not only not have to worry about cancelled flights but you'd actually arrive at your destination at the time originally stated when you booked. With the spike in travel demand over December, the odds of that do get lower on pretty much any airline you choose.
But you'll have the lowest risk of holiday flight delays with Delta. Over the last 10 years, Delta has managed to keep over 82% of December flights on time. It's the only airline in the comparison that managed to keep its average on-time performance above 80%.
With an average December cancellation rate of 1.21%, it's not as low risk as American or United but still better than the 1.63% industry average. So, if timeliness matters and you're willing to accept a slightly higher risk of a cancelled flight, Delta is your most punctual bet.
If you don't want to accept that slightly higher cancellation risk, United and American — the two with the lowest cancellation rates — came in second and third place, respectively, for on-time performance. Both kept just over 79% of their flights running on schedule over the holiday season for the last 10 years. That gives you pretty good odds of arriving on time.
The airlines to avoid in December if you want to make it back to the family on time: JetBlue, Allegiant and Frontier. Of the three, JetBlue performed the worst, with an average December on-time rate of just 69% over the last decade. Allegiant averaged just over 71%, while Frontier averaged 72%.
Of those three with the most delays, JetBlue does at least boast the lowest cancellation rate. Its 10-year average for December is 1.39%, which is slightly below the industry average and significantly better than Allegiant's (2.25%) and Frontier's (1.98%) December cancellation rates.
Which airline should you book for the holidays?
After reviewing the performance data over the last decade, it looks like you'll have the best chances of getting to your family (and maybe even getting there on time) if you book with American or United. But Delta isn't a bad choice, either.
On the other hand, Allegiant might be your worst bet as it has both higher cancellation rates and lower on-time performance in December. Frontier is also a riskier choice for the same reasons.
If you can't completely eliminate the risk of arriving late or not arriving at all this holiday season, you can at least protect your investment by either buying travel insurance or booking your flight with a credit card that includes travel insurance.
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