What IBM's New Free Cash Flow Forecast Means for Investors
IBM stock is higher Thursday after the tech giant beat Q2 earnings expectations and raised its free cash flow guidance. Here's what you need to know.


International Business Machines (IBM) is leading its fellow Dow Jones stocks in Thursday's session after the technology giant beat top- and bottom-line expectations for its second quarter. What's more, IBM raised its full-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast, which is good news for investors.
In the three months ended June 30, IBM's revenue increased 2% year-over-year to $15.8 billion, driven by 7% growth in its software segment to $6.7 billion. Big Blue also said its earnings per share (EPS) jumped more than 11% to $2.43 and its free cash flow increased 24% from the year-ago period to $2.6 billion.
"We had a strong second quarter, exceeding our expectations, driven by growth in both revenue and free cash flow," IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said in a statement. "We continue to see that clients turn to IBM for our technology and our expertise in enterprise AI [artificial intelligence], and our book of business for generative AI has grown to more than two billion dollars since the launch of watsonx one year ago."

Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
The company's results cruised past analysts' expectations. Wall Street was anticipating revenue of $15.6 billion and earnings of $2.20 per share, according to CNBC.
As a result of its strong performance in the first half of the year, IBM raised its full-year free cash flow forecast. The company now anticipates more than $12 billion in free cash flow, which is the money left over after operating expenses and spending on assets, versus its previous estimate of about $12 billion.
This is important for investors because companies with higher levels of free cash flow will often allocate some of this money toward shareholder-friendly initiatives such as stock buybacks and dividends.
"Our business fundamentals, operating leverage, product mix and productivity initiatives all contributed to significant margin expansion and increased profit and free cash flow," IBM Chief Financial Officer James Kavanaugh said in a statement. "Our strong cash generation enables us to continue investing in innovation and expertise across the portfolio, while returning value to shareholders through dividends."
Indeed, IBM is one of the best dividend stocks for dependable dividend growth, having raised its payout for 29 straight years.
Is IBM stock a buy, sell or hold?
IBM has performed very well in 2024, rising roughly 17% as of this writing, but Wall Street remains on the sidelines. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the average analyst target price for International Business Machines is $184.09, which is a discount to current levels. Additionally, the consensus recommendation is a Hold.
Still, there are some bulls to be found, including in financial services firm Stifel, which has a Buy rating and a $205 price target on the blue chip stock.
"At almost a 5% dividend yield, we believe the market is discounting IBM and expects it will remain in secular decline independent of its various growth initiatives and that the current level of FCF generation, which covers capital returns and acquisitions, is unsustainable," Stifel analyst David Grossman said in a note following IBM's second-quarter earnings release.
And while Grossman admits that risk is elevated due to slower-than-anticipated revenue stabilization, he believes "the risk/reward remains attractive, given very negative market sentiment and potential catalysts over the next 12 months, which could drive both estimates and the multiple higher."
Stifel's $205 price target sits roughly 7% above where IBM is currently trading.
Related Content
Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and much more. Delivered daily. Enter your email in the box and click Sign Me Up.

Joey Solitro is a freelance financial journalist at Kiplinger with more than a decade of experience. A longtime equity analyst, Joey has covered a range of industries for media outlets including The Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha, Market Realist, and TipRanks. Joey holds a bachelor's degree in business administration.
-
Mom needs a nursing home. Should I spend down her assets so she qualifies for Medicaid?
We asked expert financial advisers for their advice.
-
Financial Fact vs Fiction: Why Your 'Magic Number' Isn't Actually Magical
Do you think you're diversified if you're invested in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq? Do you think your tax rate will fall in retirement? Think again — and read on for other myths that could be leading you astray.
-
Opportunity Zones: An Expert Guide to the Changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill
The law makes opportunity zones permanent, creates enhanced tax benefits for rural investments and opens up new strategies for investors to combine community development with significant tax advantages.
-
Five Ways Retirees Can Keep Perspective Through Market Jitters
Market volatility is a recurring event with historical precedents (the dot-com bubble, global financial crisis and pandemic), each followed by recovery. Here's how people who are near or in retirement can navigate economic uncertainty.
-
Stock Market Today: Trump Reextends His Tariff Deadline
When it comes to this president, his trade war, the economy, financial markets and uncertainty, "known unknowns" are better than "unknown unknowns."
-
Should You Start a 'Trump Account' for Your Child?
"Trump Accounts" for kids is part of the One Big, Beautiful Bill that was just signed. Look at if it's worth it for your children.
-
I'm a Financial Strategist: This Is the Investment Trap That Keeps Smart Investors on the Sidelines
Forget FOMO. FOGI — Fear of Getting In — is the feeling you need to learn how to manage so you don't miss out on future investment gains.
-
Can You Be a Good Parent to an Only Child When You're Also a Business Owner?
Author and social psychologist Susan Newman offers advice to business-owner parents on how to raise a well-adjusted single child by avoiding overcompensation and encouraging chores.
-
How Advisers Can Steer Their Clients Through Market Volatility (and Strengthen Their Relationships)
Financial advisers need to be strategic when they communicate with clients during market volatility. The goal is to not only reassure them but to also help them avoid rash decisions, deepen your relationship with them and build lasting trust.
-
Stock Market Today: President Trump Reboots the Tariff Trade
A broad consensus that markets hate uncertainty more than anything else is being tested on an almost daily basis in 2025.