Dow Dives 793 Points as Rate-Hike Odds Rise: Stock Market Today

tickerboard covered in red SELL words and negative prices

Stocks closed sharply lower again Friday as higher oil prices lifted inflation expectations – and chances of a rate hike by year's end. By the time the dust settled, the three main indexes had logged a fifth straight weekly loss – and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had joined the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite in correction territory.

At the close, the Dow was down 1.7% at 45,166 and the S&P 500 was off 1.7% at 6,368, with both indexes logging their longest weekly losing streaks since May 2022. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which fell into correction territory on Thursday, slumped 2.2% to 20,948.

Oil prices, meanwhile, continued to surge, with front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbing 5.5% to settle at $99.64 per barrel, bringing their month-to-date gain to 48.7%.

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"Heightened uncertainty and headline-driven swings are pushing investors to cut risk, hedge more, and tighten liquidity," says Mark Hackett, chief market strategist for Nationwide. "Markets are reacting more to positioning and volatility than fundamentals."

The strategist notes that the earnings and macro backdrop remain supportive, but admits that "without clear resolution on the conflict and stabilization in energy markets, it's hard to see a sustained move higher."

No resolution came today, though President Donald Trump on Thursday extended a deadline to attack Iran's energy infrastructure to Monday, April 6.

Rising gas prices weigh on consumer sentiment

According to AAA, the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. is up more than 33% over the past month to $3.978. And this is having a direct impact on consumer sentiment, as seen in the University of Michigan's final Consumer Sentiment Index for March, which was released earlier today.

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The index was down 5.8% from February, with "escalating gas prices and volatile financial markets in the wake of the Iran conflict" weighing on sentiment. Additionally, year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.8% from 3.4% in February, the biggest one-month increase since April 2025.

Expectations for higher inflation also have futures traders pricing in greater odds for a rate hike later this year. According to CME Group FedWatch, there's now a 22% probability the Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate by December, up from zero a month ago.

Microsoft heads toward its worst quarter in 17 years

Tech stocks have taken a big hit in March, with the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) down 6.4% so far this month. This just extends a broader sell-off from the start of the year, with XLK off nearly 10% since its December 31 close.

Microsoft (MSFT, -2.5%) – a top XLK holding – has had an even worse start to 2026, down more than 26% for the year to date. This puts the Dow Jones stock on track for its worst quarterly performance since Q4 2008, when it fell 27%.

But BofA Securities analyst Tal Liani anticipates a big rebound for the blue chip over the next year or so, and recently reinstated coverage with a Buy rating and a $500 price target – representing implied upside of 40% to current levels.

Liani is bullish on the tech giant's "resilient growth profile and long-term monetization potential" of its artificial intelligence offerings.

"Microsoft's advantage lies in its ability to capitalize on AI across both infrastructure and applications," including its Azure cloud platform and its primary software products, he says. Liani believes this will drive revenue growth of 15% to 17% in the next three years.

Argan soars 38% in a down day for stocks

Not all of the day's price action was lower. Argan (AGX) soared 37.9% after reporting higher-than-expected fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings and revenue.

Argan CEO David Watson said the company, which provides services to power-generating firms, added $2.5 billion in new contract value over the fiscal year.

He added that Argan is positioned to capitalize on the "rapid growth of AI and data centers, the electrification of everything, the replacement of aging power facilities, and a prolonged period of underinvestment in power infrastructure are placing increasing pressure on our power grids.

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With over a decade of experience writing about the stock market, Karee Venema is the senior investing editor at Kiplinger.com. She joined the publication in April 2021 after 10 years of working as an investing writer and columnist at a local investment research firm. In her previous role, Karee focused primarily on options trading, as well as technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis.